I’ve got to be happy with emerging successfully with back-to-back winners in Madrid given that the players concerned were Fernando Verdasco and Gael Monfils.
Lamonf gave us another clear example of why he’s failed to make a major final when a series of questionable decisions in key moments, not least in the two match points he had late in the third, cost him.
For once, my decision to take a +1.5 sets bet paid off in that one, and we’re currently in a slight profit for the week, which is always pleasing in Madrid.
Round three was once again an underdog’s graveyard, with zero from eight this time and there have only been nine dog winners now in the last 54 R3 matches in Madrid (17%).
The quarter final round fares little better, historically, with only three of the last 16 underdogs winning in this round (19%) at the Madrid Open.
The organisers will be delighted with this quarter final line-up, with no fewer than five Grand Slam champions, as well as two Masters 1000 winners and a M1000 finalist/major semi finalist.
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal
A back-to-form Wawrinka has a hint of a chance against Nadal, but backing him to win the match is more in hope than any firm belief that Stan can continue the progress he’s shown this week and take down the King of Clay.
Wawrinka has been on it since game one this week in Madrid and this is the first time since the summer of 2016 that he’s won his first three matches of a M1000 without dropping a set.
On that occasion the opposition was Youzhny, Sock and Anderson and to have not dropped a set to any of Herbert, Pella and Nishikori is impressive, while Nadal hasn’t been tested at all yet in two comfortable wins over Tiafoe and a rather star-struck Auger-Aliassime.
Nadal has had much the better of this match-up over the years, as he has against pretty much all single-handers on clay, but Stan has won three of their last eight clashes, including one on clay.
Most of their clashes were a long time ago now and at this current moment in time Nadal has a bit of a question mark over his form, having failed to make a final on clay so far this swing, which is unusual.
Indeed, he’s only made one final in his last six tournaments on all surfaces and it’s not an absolute certainty that he’s still got his old level in him in 2019 after a string of injuries.
In these pacy conditions at altitude an in-form Wawrinka has the potential to give Nadal a hard time if he’s somewhere near his best on the day, but choosing a bet is tricky, as it is in all the matches today.
Nadal was a short as 1.12 when he met Wawrinka last summer on outdoor hard at the Rogers Cup and a rain delay at 6-5 in set one helped Nadal to take it 7-5, while Stan served for set two.
That wasn’t on clay, of course, but Stan will get his rewards for his attacking shots here in Madrid and his forehand has looked in very good shape so far.
The options for me here are the over 21.5 games, the +1.5 sets on Wawrinka or tie break played.
Elsewhere, our man Dominic Thiem looks a decent favourite against Roger Federer on the clay, with Thiem overcoming a good test from Fabio Fognini in straight sets on Thursday.
Federer didn’t show anywhere near enough from the baseline against Monfils to suggest he’s up to taking down an in-form Thiem on the dirt, but the Austrian’s price of 1.40 is short enough.
The one I was thinking about backing before the prices came out was Stefanos Tsitsipas against Alexander Zverev, but the layers haven’t been fooled by the German’s higher ranking and have recognised his recent poor form, making Tsitsipas a 1.72 favourite.
I’m not sure there’s any real value in backing Tsitsipas at that price, but he looks the likely winner on current form.
Finally, it’s hard to see Marin Cilic on his recent form taking down Novak Djokovic on the Croat’s weakest surface and at an event where he’s never really been able to produce enough control to be effective at.
Cilic has been batting hard though and had to do so again yesterday from a set and a break down and around 12.0 in-play against Laslo Djere and the tempting wager here is the tie break played, but I’d want a bigger price than 2.50.
So, a minimum stakes day if ever there was one and just a small interest on Wawrinka giving Nadal a match is all for today.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 21.5 games in Wawrinka/Nadal at 1.86
