Debrief
Two of last week’s outright bets fell at the first hurdle in Buenos Aires and Rotterdam, while at the New York Open Sam Querrey blew a fabulous chance to make the final when he lost to qualifier Brayden Schnur as a 1.25 chance.
Karen Khachanov in Rotterdam was sick and beaten from 1.03 in-play by Tallon Griekspoor, although perhaps the change of racquets that he did recently has put him off his game a bit.
Annoyingly, the other one in that half that I talked about, Gael Monfils, went on to win the title at 16/1, so things aren’t quite falling for us so far on the outrights.
Conditions and trends
At the Rio Open they play on outdoor clay that’s rather different to the conditions found in Buenos Aires, with HEAD balls (rather than Wilson), a higher bounce, and usually humid, heavy conditions (especially at night).
Rafa Nadal is the only top seed to have won (or made the final) here in its five years on the tour and its had finalists priced between 12-1 and 80-1 in the last three years, so on its history it’s one to try and find a decent priced winner of.
Karen Khachanov won Marseille as a 66-1 shot last season and at the Open 13 Provence they play on a Gerflor indoor hard court that’s one of the fastest on the tour.
It’s a fair bit quicker than Rotterdam and only Robin Soderling in 2011 has won Marseille as a number one seed this decade, while power players tend to rule the roost here (Khachanov, Kyrgios, Tsonga, Gulbis all recent winners).
At the Delray Beach Open in Florida it’s a Plexipave outdoor hard court that’s rather bouncy and plays quite slow and heavy at night. Wind is also a big factor here sometimes.
There were two big-priced finalists here last year (66-1 Tiafoe and 50-1 Gojowczyk) and Rajeev Ram was a 110-1 finalist in 2016), while no top seed has won the title in Delray Beach since Mardy Fish in 2009.
Open 13 Provence
All of this week’s events, then, have a history of providing big-priced winners and/or finalists and the top two seeds in Marseille – indeed the top four seeds perhaps – look worthy of taking on.
In the top half of the draw, number one seed Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn’t really found his form yet since that heavy defeat at the hands of Rafa Nadal in Melbourne and his indoor hard court stats are nothing to get excited about if we remove the exhibition Next Gen Finals event from them.
Gael Monfils has an awful record the week following a main level title match (he’s never made a final in his following event after all 28 of his main level career finals so far) so it’s hard to see him doing it now at the age of 32.
In any case, Monfils has only been past the quarter finals in Marseille once in eight career attempts, so I’m happy to take him on this week.
Gilles Simon is one player to have bucked the trend of power players winning in Marseille when he won it in 2015 and he’s a possible option in the top half, but in these conditions I’d expect him to be overpowered by someone.
There aren’t many big hitters in his half of the draw though and indeed not many in the tournament at all this year (Tsonga, Gulbis, Chardy and Berrettini perhaps the most powerful in the main draw field).
Hyeon Chung’s form is all over the place still, while Filip Krajinovic has a fair chance of going deep on his best indoor form, but 15/1 is a bit on the short side for my liking.
David Goffin has the stats, but not current form, and without a coach on a surface that’s probably too fast for him I don’t care much for the 9/1 about the Belgian either.
Damir Dzumhur showed a bit better form last week, but it may well be too fast for him in Marseille, with his best work usually to be found on the slower indoor hard courts.
Dzumhur’s round one opponent Peter Gojowczyk is interesting at 60/1, as I do feel that conditions will suit his game here and he’s defending 150 ranking points this week after making the Delray Beach final a year ago.
At the prices he’s worth thinking about, but his serving is not good at the moment and he’ll need to get more first serves in play than he has done lately.
I think the man to beat this week though is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whose record in Marseille is excellent (22-5 win/loss and 112.2 hold/break total) and he’s starting to play with confidence again.
In his 14 main level matches in 2019 he’s already up at 107.6 hold/break and while it was too slow for him in Rotterdam last week he’s held serve 93.3% of the time at this tournament.
The two seeds in this bottom half of the draw Borna Coric and Denis Shapovalov have no sorts of records on indoor hard (neither breaks 100 in their main level hold/break stats on this surface) and perhaps only a peak Ernests Gulbis or Matteo Berrettini look possible long shots in this half.
Fernando Verdasco hasn’t played here since 2007 and it’s probably too quick for him here as well and Tsonga seems the likely winner at a bigger price than he was when he won here in 2017 (4/1 that year).
Delray Beach Open
Juan Martin Del Potro’s questionable fitness and lack of recent matches plus John Isner’s poor form and mediocre record at this tournament may present us with an opportunity here.
Delpo’s fitness is anyone’s guess and he lost here to eventual champ Frances Tiafoe and I like the price of 20/1 about Taylor Fritz being the one to emerge from Delpo’s top half of the draw.
Fritz showed some decent form at the Australian Open, beating Gael Monfils, and after that he boosted his confidence by landing the Newport Beach Challenger on outdoor hard a few weeks ago.
He made the quarter final in Delray Beach a year ago before losing to his regular Achilles heel of a leftie (Shapovalov), but there are few lefties in the 2019 renewal and none at the moment in the top half of the draw.
Fritz is three months older than last year’s breakthrough champion Tiafoe and it’s about time that he began to contend in events like this.
Who can guess how well Nick Kyrgios will shape up this week (physically and mentally) after yet another injury and he may well fall in round one to his fellow Aussie John Millman?
Millman has his chances if he beats Kyrgios, but his price of 9-1 looks very short and too skinny for my liking.
Steve Johnson has a solid record here (111.2 hold/break total) but he’s in awful form (no match wins since last year’s US Open) and despite his stats he’s never made a final at Delray Beach.
I’m not sure that the wind at Delray Beach and the change of surfaces will benefit Reilly Opelka and while Tennys Sandgren is a possibility he’s too inconsistent to be backed at 20/1 with an opener against Opelka and then Delpo likely in round two.
In the bottom half the one I like – and it’s a hell of a gamble – is the 25/1 about Bernard Tomic, who has played well here in the past (5-4 win/loss and 105.1 hold/break total).
Bernie is 4-0 at all levels against Andreas Seppi, who’s never played Delray Beach and whose best tennis tends to come in Australia these days, and if he wins that he’d get the winner of Jordan Thompson and Marcel Granollers.
By then he might – might – start to fancy it and I see no reason why he couldn’t beat Frances Tiafoe in a possible quarter final match up if the Aussie is in the mood.
Tiafoe has a good draw and a clear chance to go well again, but he’s too hit and miss to be backing at a price like 8-1 for my money, which was highlighted by a bad loss to Jason Jung last week in New York.
Isner has never made a final here in six attempts, losing some poor ones at this venue, and he’s shown nothing so far this year to make me fancy a turnaround in these conditions is likely at a price of just 7/2.
Conclusion
I’ll add Rio Open information on Monday, but for now, I’ll just take Tsonga in Marseille, with none of the big-priced contenders really holding enough appeal at the Open 13, and Fritz and Tomic as long shots in Delray Beach.
Best Bets
2 points win Tsonga to win Marseille at 6.5
0.5 points win Fritz to win Delray Beach at 21.0
0.5 points win Tomic to win Delray Beach at 26.0
