Debrief
Once again it was a case of ‘right working out/wrong result’ in week 33 in Cincy when the bottom half of the draw opened us as expected when Rafael Nadal pulled out, as I suspected he might.
Richard Gasquet was a 350-1 shot pre-tournament and David Goffin an 80-1 chance and while Goffin was a possible it would have been hard to envisage Gasquet contending based on his fitness levels since coming back from injury.
Our last-16 man Alex De Minaur lost out to Yoshihito Nishioka, who then withdrew due to sickness, so our search for another winning finalist goes on. At least we didn’t lose in a final this time, which I suppose is a bonus.
Conditions and trends
The players are at Wake Forest University this week on the same DecoTurf hard courts that will be used at the US Open and there is a little hint of altitude here at 291m, so conditions are usually quite lively.
They use the same Wilson US Open balls that will be utilised in New York and it’s an event where qualifiers have had success, with 200-1 Pierre-Hugues Herbert making the final in 2015 and Damir Dzumhur was a 100-1 finalist here in 2017.
Daniil Medvedev won it at 33-1 last year, while Pablo Carreno Busta took the title as a 50-1 shot in 2016, so it’s an event where the long shots have had plenty of success ahead of the US Open.
It’s not been a great tournament for number one seeds so far, with Roberto Bautista Agut in 2017 the only top seed to have ever made the final in the eight years that Winston-Salem has been on the tour.
Winston-Salem Open – top half
Given the poor record of number one seeds here and the fact that Benoit Paire is our top seed this week it’s probably going to stay a poor tournament for them, with Paire’s weak record the week ahead of a major to consider.
He did pop up and win Lyon ahead of the French Open, but I’m happy to assume that’ll be a one-off for Paire and there are plenty of players in this top half of the draw that are more than capable of making the final.
In the first quarter Ugo Humbert, Pablo Carreno Busta and Lorenzo Sonego look the ones that can challenge Paire, while in the second quarter John Millman, Dan Evans, Steve Johnson and maybe Joao Sousa and Robin Haase seem to be the likely contenders.
The qualifying draw looks pretty weak this time around and so I’ll pass on taking any of those, with Damir Dzumhur a possibility if he fancies putting in the effort this week.
I recall backing John Millman here a year ago at a big price and he lost in round one to Taro Daniel (who ended up making the semi finals) before going on to beat Roger Federer a week or so later at the US Open, so much is possible in this tournament.
I don’t think many people would have fancied Daniel to make the last four a year ago when he beat Jarry, Millman and Querrey to make the semis and once again Carreno Busta did well (semi finals), so the more measured style of player can surprise at Winston-Salem.
Indeed, I could make cases for quite a few in both halves of the draw, but I think I’ll take 16-1 chance Carreno Busta ahead of Sonego and Evans in the top half.
PCB has a fine record here and beating John Isner in Cincy will have given him the boost he’s been looking for since coming back from injury a few months ago.
I’m a little put off Evans by the likely hot and humid conditions that are in the forecast for Winston-Salem this week and Sonego, although he’s yet to show he can be effective on hard courts, is a contender, too.
A lack of experience on grass didn’t stop Sonego winning Antalya and likewise he looks to have the game for hard courts and 50-1 is a fair price for half a point each-way.
Johnson is another possibility here in conditions he’s gone well in before, but I’ve backed him a few times this season and 20-1 doesn’t excite me.
Winston-Salem Open – bottom half
In the bottom half I’m happy to overlook crocked wild cards Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray, both of whom have a huge amount to prove in terms of their fitness.
Both of them look miles too short at 20-1 for me and I’d probably have gone with Tiafoe, but 12-1 doesn’t appeal about him either.
Filip Krajinovic has a fair bit to find on his outdoor hard court form and usually goes better on clay or slow indoor hard, but at the prices perhaps Krajinovic is the best value in that third quarter of the draw.
Andreas Seppi can’t be ruled out on his best hard court form and 50-1 is a fair price if you think he can find the sort of form he usually seems to reserve for Australian hard courts.
Hubert Hurkacz is one that we backed at 66-1 a few weeks ago in Washington DC and he has the quality to win this, but again 16-1 just feels a bit short.
The final quarter, again, has plenty of opportunities, but I couldn’t back Sam Querrey as tournament favourite at around 7-1 and it’s probably likely to be a little too quick for Denis Shapovalov, who likes a little more time on the ball.
Andrey Rublev’s defeat of Roger Federer in Cincy has made the Russian too short as well at around 11-1, while Alexei Popyrin has potential, as does Miomir Kecmanovic, but perhaps the best price in this section is Tennys Sandgren at 50-1.
Sandgren should be beating this Andy Murray and he’s shown he’s very much capable of a fine level on outdoor hard when he breezed to the Auckland title in similar conditions to these (and ahead of a major) at the start of the season.
He’s very much a hit and miss kind of a player, but 50-1 is about the sort of price I’d like about Sandgren in a 250.
Conclusion
So, lots of possibilities this week in Winston-Salem and it’s tempting to take quite a few in weeks like this, but I’ll stick with three: Carreno Busta to win it for one point and half a point each-way on Sonego and Sandgren.
Best Bets
1 point win Carreno Busta to win at 17.0
0.5 points each-way Sonego at 50-1
0.5 points each-way Sandgren at 50-1
