Our picks played poorly on the big points on Friday, with Jaume Munar failing to convert on a couple of set points in his opener against Alexei Popyrin, while Joao Sousa went 0-4 in his break chances against him and failed in six of his own nine break opportunities.
So, that pair lost in tight matches that were decided by a handful of points, but those who chose Nicolas Jarry and Roberto Carballes Baena as underdogs enjoyed nice-priced winners.
The second round of Indian Wells has produced some interesting trends in recent years, with one noteworthy stat being that as many as 69% of round two matches have ended in straight sets on average in the last six years.
It’s not usually as good a round for underdog winners as round one, with only 28% of the matches being won by the betting underdog in the last nine years (26% in the last three years).
Given that over 70% of favourites win in round two and that almost 70% of the matches are won in two sets it stands to reason that favourite backers might be interested in a few 2-0 wins in the next two days at Indian Wells.
Saturday’s conditions look set to be much calmer, with the wind dropping considerably to only around 10-15kph, according to the forecast.
It looks a tough old day for value seekers – at least from my point of view – but there are a few favourites that look less than sure things at short prices on Saturday.
One of our outrights, Borna Coric, has a tricky-looking start against Ivo Karlovic, with the younger Croat holding a poor career record against big servers of 5-23 win/loss at all levels and 3-13 on outdoor hard only against the big servers in my database.
Karlovic has beaten Coric in both of their prior clashes, but they were a long whole ago now, and it would be disappointing if Coric wasn’t able to find a way against Dr Ivo now.
It looks likely to be a better day for big servers weather-wise on Saturday though and this could be a dangerous one for Coric.
Nick Kyrgios played very well in his only prior meeting with Philipp Kohlschreiber and beat the German comfortably in straight sets on clay at the French Open back in 2017.
However, this is Kyrgios, and if he doesn’t apply himself on Saturday the conditions here do suit Kohlschreiber, who likes to be quite aggressive here, using his topspin for control, and it works rather well.
The German may well have his chances there and I’m not totally sold on Roberto Bautista-Agut at a short-looking price of 1.28 against improving Japanese player Yoshihito Nishioka either.
RBA has failed to record back-to-back wins at Indian Wells since 2014 and for me his flat hitting style isn’t ideal for these conditions, plus he’s lacking matches right now, having played only two since early February.
Nishioka has had some good results at this tournament so far in his career and having played that one match already could see him start this match a little quicker than RBA and either the set one to Nishioka or the 2-1 to RBA in set betting are possible options there.
The calmer conditions should help RBA, but I expect he’ll be tested.
Laslo Djere vs Guido Andreozzi
We enjoyed a nice winner with Andreozzi in round one when he took down Ilya Ivashka and I think there’s some value in sticking with the Argentine in this one against an opponent with a weak hard court record and likely lacking in energy.
Djere is 3-8 win/loss on outdoor hard in his main level career thus far (4-15 on all hard courts) with just two wins in completed matches on this surface: against Marius Copil in the opening match of last season and number 392 Arjun Kadhe – both in far quicker conditions than this in Pune.
He was easily beaten by Tim Smyczek in his only prior Indian Wells match and while his fine run on the Golden Swing will clearly have boosted his confidence he may well be a little flat now at the end of a nine-match stint in back-to-back weeks on the clay.
Andreozzi was rather up and down in the Ivashka match, letting a break lead slip in both sets before recovering, but he was the better player, forcing play with his forehand and getting errors from the Ivashka backhand.
That match should give Andreozzi a considerable advantage in these often tricky conditions and against an opponent who struggles to break serve on outdoor hard (13.1% breaks in his 11 main level matches) he’s worth sticking with for small stakes.
Those on the 2-0 wins today may well look to Jan-Lennard Struff, who should be too strong for lucky loser Ricardas Berankis in conditions surely too slow for Berankis, whose best work comes on indoor hard and grass.
Gilles Simon is usually too smart for Malek Jaziri, as their 5-0 head-to-head shows, but these Indian Wells conditions aren’t usually helpful for Simon.
Milos Raonic just about got the better of Sam Querrey in an awful match here a year ago, despite winning only 46% on his second serve, but he won it with a better performance on the big points and that may well be the case again, but 1.44 looks short (he was 1.79 a year ago).
I’m tempted to back Querrey in some way at these prices, but after he let me down badly in New York against Brayden Schnur I’m not ready to trust him again yet.
The first two days had several bets that appealed, but today looks far less appealing and I’ll just have one small wager on Saturday.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Andreozzi to beat Djere at 2.50
