The underdog winners keep coming at this year’s trend-busting ATP Tour Finals and I was once again on the right lines, but had nothing to show for it from Thursday’s play at the O2.
Of the Matteo Berrettini versus Dominic Thiem match I said I was tempted by Berrettini at 3.10, but passed due to it being a dead rubber, while my choice of bet to side with Roger Federer against Novak Djokovic proved too conservative.
That said, I don't think many people fancied Federer to beat Djokovic in straight sets in 73 minutes and as well as Federer played I'm not so sure that Djokovic was fully fit – something certainly appeared to be amiss with the Serb – and it means that Nadal is confirmed as our year-end number one, with Djokovic falling in the group stage.
Moving on to Friday and mathematically, all four players are still in with a chance of making the semi finals from Group Andre Agassi on Friday, as Rafael Nadal faces Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev takes on Alexander Zverev.
The afternoon match at (not before) 14:00 UK time sees Nadal take on Tsitsipas and that’s followed at (not before) 20:00 UK time by Medvedev and Zverev.
There’s much still to play for, but the only way that Medvedev can qualify from the group is if Tsitsipas beats Nadal in the 2pm match.
The Russian would then qualify in second place if he also beats Zverev in straight sets, so it’s a big ask, but far from impossible, with Tsitsipas playing well so far this week, Nadal not so much, while Zverev has been as up and down as he’s been all season.
First up, then, it’s Rafa Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas and I couldn’t back Nadal at 1.56 on indoor hard against an opponent who’s, perhaps unsurprisingly, become inspired by the atmosphere at the O2 and is serving very well indeed.
Let’s be honest, Nadal was very fortunate indeed to escape from his clash with Medvedev with a win from 1-5 down in the deciding set, as the Russian blinked big time and the Greek should fancy this.
We’ve seen on several occasions this year Tsitsipas raise his game when facing the elite players and he’s currently running at a hold/break total of 120 from his two career matches at the Tour Finals.
Obviously, it’s very early days and that will change, but for now if he carries on serving as well as he has Nadal will do well to stop him, with the Spaniard’s own level not where he’d like it to be at the moment.
Indoor conditions, with the pacy courts and low bounce will always hinder Nadal, but much of the key to this match (as well as Tsitsipas’ serving) will be about the backhand of the Greek.
We saw that shot do some serious damage to Nadal on slow clay at night in Rome earlier this season and it was firing nicely from his point of view against an admittedly poor Zverev on Wednesday.
That shot will be severely tested by Nadal I’d have thought, but it won’t be rearing up around his shoulders as Nadal can make happen with his top spin on clay and some slower hard courts.
A naturally confident sort anyway, Tsitsipas will be up for this, but is there any value in backing him as short as 2.45 when his previous prices were 4.22 (clay), 5.54 (clay, won), 6.23 (hard), 5.79 (hard) and 17.22 (clay)?
Another issue here is one of possible injury to Tsitsipas, who was rather coy about a reported foot injury that he had to have an injection for after practice on Wednesday.
“I don’t like to do this and to talk about this. But this was how things worked today,” was the quote from Tsitsipas that journalist Jannik Schneider revealed on social media.
Perhaps it could also be the case that now that Nadal has secured the number one ranking for the end of the season he might feel like his work this week is done?
It's, a tough one to judge, and while I feel Tsitsipas has his chances his price isn’t big enough for me here.
The second match of the day might be a bit of a non-event as far as Daniil Medvedev is concerned; it certainly will if Nadal has won and that makes what looked a very tricky match to call anyway even harder.
Medvedev has been nervy this week in both of his matches and I’m not sure what that awful loss to Nadal from 5-1 up (could have been 5-0 up) has done to his confidence for this clash with Alexander Zverev.
And Zverev has been almost impossible to call for much of this season, with some good showings followed by poor ones and as I think I mentioned in my pre-tournament preview, his confidence doesn’t run very deep at all at the moment.
Of his poor performance against Tsitsipas on Wednesday, Zverev said: “He played a fantastic match, I thought. I played really bad.”
Medvedev was simply too solid for Zverev and playing with more confidence in the tight moments when the pair clashed in quick conditions in Shanghai and the form stats are all in his favour, so perhaps there might be a hint of value on the Russian here as slight underdog.
Medvedev was a 1.50 chance when he beat Zverev in straight sets only a month ago in that Shanghai meeting and I imagine these prices will probably change if Tsitsipas beats Nadal and Medvedev has his qualification in his own hands.
He’d need to beat Zverev in straight sets to qualify in that scenario, but that’s far from impossible (he did it in Shanghai to break a 0-4 career series run in favour of Zverev) and if we can still get the same price as now (3.35) on Medvedev 2-0 that looks worth risking for small stakes.
From Zverev’s point of view (whoever wins the afternoon match) he simply has to beat Medvedev (by any score) to qualify, but one would think that he’d be facing a demotivated Medvedev if Nadal beats Tsitsipas in the afternoon clash.
Looking at this season’s main level stats on all surfaces we find that Medvedev is a good 7% better off in his service hold/break total (112.2 compared to 105) than Zverev.
If we just use matches played against the players in my database that are ‘top-10 quality’ we find that Medvedev’s won half of them (8-8 win/loss) and has a hold/break total of 97.7, while Zverev is 2-5 and 89.0.
Presumably, both men will be looking to erase the memories of their most recent matches at the O2 and while I’ll definitely pass on this one if Nadal has won the afternoon match I’ll chance Medvedev if he can still qualify.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Medvedev to beat Zverev 2-0 at 3.35
