We were a little unlucky not to land yet another underdog winner for the week on Thursday when Denis Shapovalov lost seven of the last eight points of a final set tie break from 3-0 up against Benoit Paire in Lyon.
Paire has been a bit of a thorn in our side this week and despite his various ailments and apparent lack of interest at times he’s now into a semi final the week before the French Open.
At least he can’t disrupt our outright bet in Geneva, with Nicolas Jarry powering his way into the last four in Switzerland with another straight sets win, this time over Taro Daniel and he’s now slight favourite to make the final there.
And conditions in Geneva, which are good for Jarry anyway at altitude, look about perfect on Friday, with a rain-free day of around 21C forecast and very little wind, too.
He’ll have to stay at the level he’s shown all week again on Friday though, as he faces the consistent Radu Albot, who won’t give Jarry anything and the Chilean will have to come out and play aggressive, accurate tennis to get the win.
Hopefully, Jarry can stay at a good level, but he does fall off it very quickly sometimes and he might have to go to a third set here unless he plays his best stuff, as he has been so far in Geneva.
The second semi final in Geneva is interesting as well, with Alexander Zverev just about making it to the semis after a fine effort from Hugo Dellien on Thursday in which the Bolivian could have done even better.
Dellien should have won set one and had chances again in set three, while Zverev managed to win only 29% of his second serve points, which is not a good sign for the German at all heading into the French Open.
Indeed, Zverev only won 27% of his second serve points in a 6-2, 6-1 win over an erratic Ernests Gulbis in his previous match this week, so for me those aren’t signals that this Zverev is coming back to form.
And his clash with Federico Delbonis today looks tough, with the Argentine, similarly to Jarry, getting a lot out of this surface in these quick and bouncy conditions and looking in great form.
He’s been very aggressive indeed on anything left short and if Zverev’s going to give him chances, as he did with Dellien I’d fancy Delbonis to punish Zverev where Dellien and Gulbis didn’t.
Zverev has lost four of his last eight matches when priced up between 1.40 and 1.60 favourite and I’ve got little confidence in him here on current form.
In Lyon we’re expecting similar weather (not surprising as the two venues are only about 100 miles or so apart) to Geneva and while I was happy to take on Benoit Paire against the lefty Shapovalov as favourite on Thursday he might be a hint of value on Friday.
Paire certainly has much better stats on clay than Taylor Fritz over the past 12 months at main level if we’re going purely on service hold/break totals (105.6 to 93.9 in favour of Paire), but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Four of Fritz’s last five losses have come against Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori, while Paire hasn’t faced a top-20 opponent for over a year on clay, so there’s a clear disparity there.
And Fritz’s improvement on clay was in evidence again on Thursday when he took down Roberto Bautista Agut and didn’t face a break point in three sets against the Spaniard, whose return game is pretty strong.
Another consideration here is Paire’s weak record in main level semi finals, where he’s lost 14 of the 20 he’s played in his career.
I’ve had enough of Paire this week and instead maybe it’s worth risking another inconsistent, but talented, sort in the form of Nikoloz Basilashvili, who’s a tempting price against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
This pair clashed in Miami on slow outdoor hard a few months back and I remember it well, as it was, if memory serves me correctly, the worst serving performance of Basil’s career in terms of first serve percentage that day.
The Georgian only managed 39% in total (and eight double faults) and despite that he should have won the first set, failing to serve it out at *5-4 and now a few months later FAA is as short as 1.64 to beat Basil on clay (FAA was a 1.90 chance in Miami).
That looks rather short to me, considering that FAA only won that Miami clash by seven points on the worst serving day possible from the Georgian and also that the Canadian has struggled to break serve this week in Lyon.
He also had a three setter on Thursday, while Basil is coming off a confidence-boosting straight sets win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Neither of these two break the 100 mark in their main level clay service hold/break stats for the last year and FAA has only won 47% of his second serve points in that time.
So, I’d suggest that the prices of their Miami clash were closer to how I see this one, although like Paire, you never know what sort of match you’ll get from Basil.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Delbonis to beat Zverev at 3.0
