IT'S been debated and delayed, mooted then mocked, but the time for talking is (almost) over: the UFC's controversial return is just days away. This weekend, UFC 249 will take place at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Florida, and as you'd expect, Dana White has put on a hell of a show.
So good in fact, we're going to work our way through this epic card in two separate parts:
Part 1: Oleinik vs Werdum, Hall vs Souza, Cerron vs Pettis, and Cejudo vs Cruz.
Part 2: Hardy vs Castro, Stephens vs Kattar, N'Gannou vs Rozenstruik, and Ferguson vs Gaethje.
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Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum
Two fighters fast approaching the record for the oldest Premier League players ever, both turning 43 years old this summer. The speed and cardio might be long gone, but both have something to offer in a heavyweight division generally considered to be shallow and unskilled.
Werdum by submission is always a sensible bet (21/5), but Oleinik has an uncanny ability to land awkward submissions from unfavourable positions (13/2). Whilst neither man is considered a decorated striker, both have recent KO losses and Werdum is coming off a long layoff for a drug infraction. The KO bet could pay off for either fighter (Werdum 13/2, Oleinik 6/5).
Bout odds: Oleinik 5/2 vs Werdum 8/25
Tip: Werdum by submission (21/5)
Uriah “Prime Time” Hall vs Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
Uriah Hall was once touted as the future of the Middleweight division. A ferocious and athletic power striker who can put people to sleep with a single shot. Jacare is best known as one of the best Brazillian Jiu Jitsu practitioners of all time who can finish anyone on the ground.
Punters will look at finishes by KO for Hall (12/5) or Submission for Souza (5/2). With both fighters ageing and looking to be in the tail end of their careers, a decision for either fighter becomes more likely, as their appetite for title contention dwindles.
Bout odds: Hall 21/20 vs Souza 4/5
Tip: Souza to win (4/5)
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone vs Anthony “Showtime” Pettis
Both fighters in the featured prelim bout have recently fallen victim to the main eventer Tony Ferguson. It’s fair to say that both Cerrone and Pettis appear to be in the golden years of their fighting careers, with both only having three wins in their last seven. With that said, there aren’t two fighters more game than Showtime and Cowboy, who have highlight reels longer than most people's careers, and a flair for dramatic and often outrageous techniques.
Both men can be seen finishing fights in any round, by any technique. Choosing a specific outcome is tricky, and a straight bet to win on Cowboy (23/20) or Showtime (8/11) could be the most sensible selection. Pettis has shown recent glimpses of striking magic including a superman punch KO of “Wonderboy” Thompson, and with a KO priced at 39/20, it might be worth looking. Alternatively, recent highlights for Cerrone include an arm breaking submission win over Mike Perry, and you can get 21/4 for a repeat of that result.
Bout odds: Cerrone 23/20 vs Pettis 8/11
Tip: Pettis by TKO 11/4
If Dominick Cruz defeats Henry Cejudo at #UFC249 after four years off.
Does that cement him as the greatest bantamweight the UFC has ever seen? pic.twitter.com/BboiCeh7jJ
— Lewis Simpson MMA (@LGS_MMA) May 2, 2020
Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo vs Dominic “The Dominator” Cruz
Co-main event – Bantamweight Championship title fight
New fans would be forgiven for not recognising either of these names. Double champion Cejudo exploded into the public eye 12 months ago after dethroning long-reigning flyweight champion Demitrius Johnson before moving up to Bantamweight and claiming the 135lb title on his first attempt. Dominic Cruz on the other hand is a long-standing Bantamweight stalwart whose illustrious career has been marred by multiple layoffs due to injury – the most recent being a three-and-a-half year gap since he lost to Cody Garbrandt in 2016.
If you watch pre-fight interviews you’ll notice Cejudo lives up to his new moniker – the King of Cringe. His goofy pre and post-fight antics might be hard to watch, but his Olympic gold medal in wrestling and the obnoxious power he used to score a KO over TJ Dillashaw are formidable weapons that can’t be sneezed at. Cruz brings experience to the party, having been a professional since 2005. He also brings legendary wrestling defence and arguably the most unorthadox striking in the UFC. Cruz’s power is almost negligible but his ability to hit without getting hit has stumped all but two of his career opponents.
Selecting the right outcome of this fight depends entirely on whether Cejudo can implement his offensive tools: wrestling and power. Obvious paths to victory include KO (11/4), but if doesn't quite go to plan, Cruz’s incredible defence makes an upset – via decision (11/4) – very appealing.
Bout odds: Cejudo 4/9 vs Cruz 15/8
Tip: Cruz by decision 11/4
Click here to read Part 2: Gaethje to threaten early but Ferguson's staying power to see him home
