THERE'S no doubt this is a testing time for the NFL. In the last week, we've seen more positive coronavirus tests, an already hefty injury list get even heftier, and a hurricane threaten one fixture. In spite of all this, the NFL continues to enthrall with highly competitive battles and individual brilliance coming to the fore each weekend. Week 5, we are sure, will be no different. Here to pick through the bones of it is Nat Coombs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders
Sunday October 11, 18:00 GMT
The Chiefs MNF showdown against New England was fascinating, with Andy Reid and Bill Belichick demonstrating why they’re two of the finest minds to coach in the NFL. As NFL Stats and Research pointed out shortly after half-time, the only three occasions in the Patrick Mahomes era that the Chiefs haven’t scored a TD in the opening half have been against Belichick and the Patriots.
If Cam Newton had been starting at QB for New England, we may have seen a very different result, given the Patriots wasted two RedZone opportunities where Bryan Hoyer, Newton’s back up, was unable to punch in any points at all, and to add insult to injury, on the second possession within the Chiefs 15 yard line, turned the ball over.
Belichick may have found the blueprint to slow Kansas City down, but it doesn’t stand that many teams will be able to follow it. Outside of Belichick’s own remarkable input as the architect, not every team possesses the personnel required to execute the gameplan.
To stop the Chiefs, defenses need speed, particularly in the secondary. And even when you contain them with a bend not break approach, Mahomes can dig deep as he did with an in the fourth quarter against the Pats, with 18-yard scramble on a third and nine which set up the Mecole Hardman TD and put the game to bed.
So, promising that for Las Vegas, Trayvon Mullen is turning into a Top 10 corner in the league, but they’ll have to face KC without rookie CB Damon Arnette – first round draft pick who has started from Week 1. The Raiders pass rush hasn’t been prominent either, so Mahomes is likely to have time. I’m confident Reid will map out a way to put up the points. The question is, can the Raiders keep up?
They will look to exploit this Chiefs run defense which is fallible and get Josh Jacobs going, though Jacobs, undeniably talented is yet to post a 100+ yard game this season and has only once averaged above four yards per carry once this season. The possession battle is another key to beating the Chiefs: keep Mahomes off the field with long, clock-eating drives, and establishing the run is integral to that strategy.
Raiders QB Derek Carr is up against capable pass D of the Chiefs but he’s performing better than his critics suggest, with 8 TDs, no picks, and averaging circa 270 yards a game, plus he’ll have speedster rookie receiver Henry Ruggs III back.
The Chiefs are double digit favourites, and I’m tempted by the line if it holds to around 11, because in the end I think they win comfortably, but the firmer play here is the over. It’s fallen a lot since the opening 59, and 55 is a big number in any normal season, but the NFL in 2020 is no normal season, and we’re seeing some major totals met.
Match odds: Chiefs (1/6) Raiders (19/4)
Handicap: Chiefs +11.5 (10/11) Raiders -11.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 55 (10/11) Under 55 (10/11)
Tip: Over 55 total points (10/11)
Highest-graded QBs under pressure:
1. Russell Wilson – 87.8
2. Patrick Mahomes – 75.2
3. Aaron Rodgers – 73.1
4. Justin Herbert – 72.2 pic.twitter.com/sPtS6QGDKH— PFF (@PFF) October 8, 2020
Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings
Monday October 12, 01:20 GMT
Last Sunday the Vikings closed their must win game against the Texans to land their first win of the season but at 1-3, they’re back in that all or nothing place again, hosting the red-hot Hawks. If they lose and drop to 1-4, their playoff chances are all but gone. If they win, they’ve got Atlanta at home next week and could conceivably be going into the BYE week in Week 7 at .500 and right back in the post season race.
It’s a very tall order though. There’s a real mismatch here between Russell Wilson (who’s playing at a different level to any other QB so far this season save Aaron Rodgers) and his all new Seahawks air attack, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett establishing themselves as an elite receiver tandem, against a young, raw and struggling Vikings secondary.
I’m not buying into the Seahawks weakness being the secondary either. The stat that everyone is trotting out at the moment, that they’re ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed, is misleading. Teams have been chasing them for most of the season, and when they do that, they have to air it out, and often inflate total yard stats in garbage time, when the game is already lost.
Whilst Kirk Cousins and the Vikings can have some success against them, particularly with the emergence of Justin Jefferson the rookie WR, it’s the run game that this Minnesota side needs to tick to have a chance and whilst Dalvin Cook is looking sharp again, the Seattle run defense is ranked third in the NFL, allowing just 3.4 YPC and 75 yards per game. Seattle may not have the 12th man homefield crowd making life difficult for Cousins and Co, but I think their D holds up nevertheless.
Match odds: Seahawks (3/10) Vikings (13/5)
Handicap: Seahawks -7 (10/11) Vikings +7 (10/11)
Total points: Over 57 (10/11) Under 57 (10/11)
Tip: Seahawks -7 (10/11)
For all NFL Week 5 betting markets, click here
Washington Football Team vs Los Angeles Rams
Sunday October 11, 18:00 GMT
Washington have benched their former first rounder Dwayne Haskins who has slid to third on the depth chart overnight. Kyle Allen comes in for the start against LA, but much as Haskins has been off the pace for most of his NFL career, he hasn’t had a lot to play with – maybe those two things are connected! – and neither will Allen. This is a receiving corps ranked 29th in the NFL, and a Tight End group ranked 32nd. And it’s a strong Rams Pass D that they’re up against.
Washington will lean on the run through Antonio Gibson, and the Rams can be exploited there, but whilst LA were disappointing against the Giants, this will be altogether more comfortable for them.
Match odds: Washington (3/1) Rams (2/7)
Handicap: Washington +7.5 (10/11) Rams -7.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 46.5 (10/11) Under 46.5 (10/11)
Tip: Rams -7.5 (10/11)
Treble odds: Over 55 total points (10/11), Seahawks -7 (10/11), Rams -7.5 (10/11) – 23/4
Check out the Nat Coombs Show podcast on ESPN right here.
