WEEK One of the 2020 NFL season threw up so many upsets that Week Two is shaping up to be a consolidation weekend for some of the league's more fancied teams. Six of 16 favourites were beaten, but you have to do better than that to get the better of our tipster, NFL broadcaster and journalist, Nat Coombs. He went three for three on Week One – let's see if he can repeat that in Week Two.
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Sunday September 20, 18:00 GMT
Aaron Rodgers somewhat predictably delivered a virtuoso performance on Sunday to blow away the Minnesota Vikings, putting up 43 points and throwing for 364 yards and 4 TDs in the process.
This is the same Aaron Rodgers who improbably has faced a barrage of criticism in the last six months with the suggestion he’s in decline. Even his own team have contributed to the argument, drafting a QB (Jordan Love) in the first round this year, signalling the beginning of the end of his time at Lambeau. Teams who take QBs in the first round usually start them within two years of the pick. Rodgers himself was in that situation all those years ago, supplanting another Green Bay great, Brett Favre.
There’s no real doubt the Packers were not as good as their 13-3 record suggested last year – although I’d argue that’s more evidence Rodgers is still elite, leading his team to wins with an indifferent roster and offensive game plan. The lack of off-season strengthening at the receiver position where critics argue they’re too thin baffled many, especially in light of the Love pick.
But then Week One happened. As if to emphasise the receiver issue, Rodgers connected with eight different players, Davante Adams getting 14 catches, almost as many as the other seven combined (18). It was a virtuoso performance and one that’s immediately sent a warning shot to NFC rivals that rather than regress, Green Bay may well improve on last year’s NFC Championship run.
Some suggest that WR’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard (who both contributed with some big plays against the Vikings) are going to have breakthrough years (hence the lack of new faces) and if that’s the case, this is shaping up to be a very dangerous offense, given how potent their ground game with Aaron Jones can be.
In contrast to Green Bay, Detroit were one of the teams with most buzz going into Week 1 but they disappointed, throwing away a strong lead against Chicago. Matt Patricia’s side rallied almost won it at the death but for a rush of blood to the head from rookie RB Deandre Swift, who lost control of the ball as he was going in for the score.
Ominously for the Lions, their secondary is banged up and they could be without Desmond Trufant, Jeffrey Okudah and Justin Coleman against Rodgers as all are carrying hamstring injuries. Leading receiver Kenny Golladay also missed the Bears game and all of these need a status check pre-game before you make your call, but I’m backing Rodgers to carry on where he left off and the Pack to win and cover.
Match odds: Packers (2/5) Lions (21/10)
Handicap: Packers -6 (10/11) Lions +6 (10/11)
Total points: Over 49.5 (10/11) Under 49.5 (10/11)
Tip: Packers -6 (10/11)
Aaron Rodgers 96.0 PFF grade was the highest week 1 grade by a QB since 2011
The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour is officially underway pic.twitter.com/0AVUZTrdXM
— PFF (@PFF) September 15, 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers
Sunday September 20, 18:00 GMT
I called lots of points in the TB/NO game last Sunday, and I think we’ll see more of the same this weekend as Tom Brady and co take on a struggling Carolina defense that PFF ranked as 30 out of 32 in Week One, based on their EPA metric. Brady’s performance against New Orleans has been criticised, somewhat unreasonably, as lacklustre and disjointed, but there were flashes that demonstrated how potent this offense can be.
Most teams were hit and miss offensively in Week One, so it’s wholly unrealistic to expect Brady to slide into an entirely new team and playbook after this fractious off season and be on point from the start. As is well documented, rhythm and trust in his receivers is an essential part of Brady’s approach. He’s got an elite collection to gel with, including Mike Evans who was bothered by injury in Week One and should be sharper this time around as a result.
Gronk didn’t factor at all against New Orleans but should start to contribute soon, and similarly Leonard Fournette, another late addition, will see more carries, to tag team with the impressive Ronald Jones. I think Carolina will keep in touching distance with Brady, which is why rather than looking at the spread, I’m taking the over.
Match odds: Buccaneers (2/5) Panthers (7/2)
Handicap: Buccaneers -9.5 (19/20) Panthers +9.5 (17/20)
Total points: Over 47.5 (10/11) Under 47.5 (10/11)
Tip: Over 47.5 points (10/11)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday September 20, 21:25 GMT
Kansas City started the season impressively, if not in fifth gear and I like them to win again this weekend against the LA Chargers, as the offense starts to really warm up. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Hilaire has improved the Super Bowl champs instantly (138 yards, TD against Houston). He’s a strong, tough runner despite his diminutive stature, and Mahomes and co are going up against a defense missing one of their strongest pieces, Derwin James.
They’ve got an elite corner tandem though in Chris Harris and Casey Hayward, but my concern is the offense, and where the points are coming from. Their own rookie RB Joshua Kelley did well against the Bengals in the season opener running for 60 yards and a TD, but QB Tyrod Taylor struggled, completing less than 50% of his passes, and whilst talk of his benching for rookie first rounder Justin Herbert is premature, I don’t see them troubling Kansas City much.
Match odds: Chargers (3/1) Chiefs (27/100)
Handicap: Chargers +8.5 (10/11) Chiefs +8.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 47.5 (10/11) Under 47.5 (10/11)
Tip: Chiefs -8.5 (10/11)
Check out the Nat Coombs Show podcast on ESPN right here.
