JUST two weeks on from their Week 10 clash, when a 21-0 second-half saw the Indianapolis Colts triumph 34-17 over the Tennesse Titans, the two teams are at it again. NFL broadcaster and journalist, Nat Coombs, fancies a reversal this weekend, and not just on the handicap. Elsewhere, Denver Broncos' clash with New Orleans, and the New Patriots' match-up against the Arizona Cardinals are also under the microscope this week.
Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints
Sunday November 29, 21:05 GMT
The Broncos upset the Dolphins last week, in a game I called for Miami, but I’m doubling down and backing New Orleans to cover against them this time out. A lot of eyebrows were raised over Taysom Hill starting at QB over Jameis Winston and the injured Drew Brees, but Hill vindicated the decision – which apparently divided opinion within the Saints camp also – with a competent, if not explosive, display with his arm, adding his dynamic running ability to the mix completing 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards, with 51 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries.
An extra week of preparation will further enhance his role as a capable understudy, and indeed his chances of taking over the role when Brees retires, most likely at the end of the season. He should have a full complement of weapons around him too, though Alvin Kamara has been troubled by a foot injury and Deonte Harris has had limited practice at the time of writing.
Denver’s defense was the reason the Broncos beat Miami – holding the Fins to just 13 points in a disappointing display, but Drew Lock struggled again, completing only 18/30, 0 TDs and an interception. They ran all over the Dolphins with Melvin Gordon (84 Yards, 5.6 YPC & 2TDs) & Phillip Lindsay (82 Yards. 5.1 per carry) finding a level of success that will be tricky to replicate against a Saints defense ranked second in the league in YPC allowed (just 3.3). New Orleans have a lot to play for too, gunning for the number one seed in the NFC, which carries extra significance this season in a revised playoff structure.
Match odds: Broncos (9/4) Saints (4/11)
Handicap: Broncos +6 (10/11) Saints -6 (10/11)
Total points: Over 43.5 (10/11) Under 43.5 (10/11)
Tip: Saints -6 (10/11)
New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday November 29, 18:00 GMT
The Patriots’ playoff hopes disappeared with their loss to Houston, and it’s a New England team that’s struggling on both sides of the ball. Much has been made of the threadbare offense – with very little to celebrate other than Damien Harris’ ground game – and Cam Newton’s challenge has become even more acute with the loss of Rex Burkhead for the season. WR Nkeale Harry just hasn’t lived up to the promise of being the only WR Bill Belichick has ever drafted in the first round, Julian Edelman has been hurt, and Newton himself hasn’t been as assured as he looked early on in the season since his battle with Covid-19, although he racked up 365 yards and a TD without a pick against the Texans.
Defensively, they’re equally poor, the impact of major pieces leaving in free agency in the off season or sitting out the season due to Covid concerns. Ranking dead last in Defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and in the bottom quarter in a number of other defensive categories, this is a wildly uncharacteristic Belichick side, and Kyler Murray can exploit them in the same way Deshawn Watson did for Houston last week. Arizona rank second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (157.7) and first in YPC (5.15).
Murray has a shoulder injury, but is expected to go, and assuming this dangerous Kliff Kingsbury offense will land blows as it has done for most of the season, and even if Stephon Gilmore can neutralise Deandre Hopkins, and I just don’t see how the Pats keep it close enough, even if they establish the run.
Match odds: Patriots (21/20) Cardinals (41/50)
Handicap: Patriots +1.5 (10/11) Cardinals -1.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 49.5 (10/11) Under 49.5 (10/11)
Tip: Cardinals (41/50)
For all NFL Week 12 betting markets, click here
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Sunday November 29, 18:00 GMT
The Titans showed their toughness in last week’s win over the Ravens, and there’s every chance they beat the Colts straight up this weekend, which makes the three points they’re getting as a road dog tempting. In the reverse fixture a few weeks back, Tennessee capitulated after leading Indy at half time, though a lot of their defeat was down to special teams mistakes (two bad punts leading to TDs) and their offense was completely stifled in a way that rarely happens.
Certainly, the impact of AJ Brown, seven TDs and counting and benefiting from a more characteristically assured Ryan Tannehill, who could benefit from Adam Humphries returning. The play action passing game is underpinned by Derrick Henry’s ever dangerous ground attack and whilst this Colts D is amongst the most organised and together, particularly against the run, expect the Titans to be more consistent through the game. Henry had 103 yards on 19 carries against Indy last time out and is a good bet to go over 100 yards once again.
Indy are a well-coached, well-oiled machine, and this one should be a tight affair, but if the line stays at three or above, Titans are worth a look.
Match odds: Colts (11/20) Titans (8/5)
Handicap: Colts -3 (17/20) Titans +3 (19/20)
Total points: Over 51.5 (17/20) Under 51.5 (19/20)
Tips: Titans -3 (19/10)
Treble odds
Saints -6 (10/11), Cardinals (41/50), Titans -3 (19/10) – 9/1
Check out the Nat Coombs Show podcast on ESPN right here.
