THE NFL, America’s most powerful sporting league, is refusing to be put completely off its stride by COVID-19.
One of the key events of the league year – the NFL Draft – where the best college players are selected by the professional teams, will take place, as originally diarised, between April 23-25, albeit under very different circumstances to normal. No more Las Vegas location, where in suitably OTT fashion, all first-round draft picks were to be ferried to the stage on boats to shake the hand of the league commissioner Roger Goodell and receive their (new) team shirt.
No fans in attendance either of course – typically thousands are on hand, often raucous, adding to the drama. And all 32 NFL teams have had to rethink their respective war-rooms – the name appropriated to the collection of front office, coaching and scouting personnel who hunker down in one room, strategizing, wheeling and dealing through the night, reacting to what’s going on in front of them.
Due to lockdown restrictions across much of America, we’re about to witness the first “virtual” Draft in NFL History, with teams, players, media all handling remotely, using the tech that many of us have been either professionally or socially over the last few weeks. The difference being, that whilst we’re hopping on Zoom to chat to family or friends, these guys will be making decisions that will cost millions of dollars, and if they’re wrong, could cost them their jobs.
There are a few key narratives to be on the look-out for if you’re considering some action, starting with the quarterback situation. The best on the board is Joe Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner who guided LSU to a national title, throwing for over 6,000 yards and 60 TDs in the most successful season by a quarterback in college football history. He’ll be the first player taken – hence the (1/100 odds) – and the only minor detail here is whether the Cincinnati Bengals, who possess the number one pick, will deal it to another team which is unlikely given their need for a QB, and the sense that Mike Brown, their GM, is not going to want his legacy to be the guy that passed over on Joe Burrow.
There’s hardly ever a sure thing in the NFL Draft – and critics point the fact that Burrow only has one strong season under his belt – but it would take a brave soul to overlook a player that could well become one of the best players of his generation. Outside of Burrow, two, probably three more quarterbacks will go on the first round. Justin Herbert (Oregon), Tua Tagavailoa (Alabama) are certain to be taken, and Jordan Love (Utah State) has built up a lot of pre-draft buzz that will seemingly propel him into Round One.
What will happen to Tagavailoa is perhaps the most fascinating story in the Draft. Six months ago, one of the most exciting QBs in the college game, helming the all-powerful Alabama, Tagavailoa was all set to be the Number One overall pick before two things happened. Burrow’s blistering season, and Tagavailoa’s devastating hip injury, taking him out for the remainder of the season. Ever since, questions have been asked about his fitness, and perhaps more precisely his long-term durability. He’s easily a Top 5 pick in terms of talent, but will teams be dissuaded from the gamble, particularly given the limited evaluation process they’ve had due to coronavirus?
Teams other than Cincy that are likely to be interested in a first round quarterback, so could theoretically trade with the Bengals for Burrow, but more realistically will be looking at one of the other three quarterbacks include: Miami (Pick 5), the LA Chargers (6), Jaguars (9) and the Raiders (12). Both the Jaguars and the Raiders have two first round picks this year, gained from previous player trades, which makes it more likely they’ll spend one on a QB, though both have, in principle, good to go starters for Week 1 of the season.
But rumours abound that Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden just doesn’t rate Derek Carr, and the Jags Gardner Minshew, whilst exciting, is still a raw, work in progress, so both may be tempted. Miami has 3 first round picks, meaning the chances of them taking a QB are almost certain – the question is, which one?
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Miami and LA being a) so high up the board and b) right next to each other is interesting. The teams directly above them – Washington (2), Detroit (3) and NY Giants (4) – are unlikely to take a QB, but if either the Dolphins or the Chargers has a strong preference for Tagavailoa or Herbert, and is concerned that the other team does as well, they could deal with a team above and trade picks to lock the player in. This is unlikely to be Washington, but Detroit at (3) may take the bait, particularly if they conclude that Jeff Okudah, the cornerback that is projected to fall to them will still be on the board at 5 or 6, assuming the Giants (with pick 4) strengthen their offensive line, given their big investment in Daniel Jones.
One of the other teams – the Raiders or the Jags – could throw their hat into the ring, leverage their extra pick and zip up the board to snag one of the two QBs. Conversely, either Miami or LA may blink when it comes to the health of Tagavailoa, who may drop down the board as a result. So, the Raiders (10/1) and the Jaguars (14/1) are both interesting long shots there to take Tua but Miami (Evens) seems the right play, given they’ve got three picks, which offsets the risk.
Jordan Love is the wildcard QB out of the four – in so far as he’s the least complete as an NFL starter – and as such may fall to a team either with an established QB unsure of his successor (Saints, the 5/2 favourites to take him) or a team that has just lost an established QB and can’t possibly know if the succession plan will work, so could roll the dice (Patriots, 7/1 to take Love). Jacksonville (also 7/1), if they haven’t snagged a QB earlier, may use their second pick on him.
It would be an unusual play for Bill Belichick, but then as his draft game plan is typically unorthodox in relation to everyone else, not impossible. As the Pats need strength in so many areas on the offense, NE taking an offensive player first round at 4/5 looks interesting.
Indeed, this is a rich class of WR – on my ESPN podcast, Ben Issacs suggested it may be “the best WR class in a generation” with Cee Dee Lamb (Oklahoma) and the Alabama duo of Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy leading the pack. The Jets, Raiders and 49ers are all in the hunt for a WR (picking 11, 12 and 13 respectively) and as a result I like any of them going under 12.5. Jeudy as the first receiver to go at 5/4 is also worth a look.
Like so many before it, this Draft is sure to contain surprises, and one move will set off a chain reaction altering the trajectory of a range of players. There may even be an out and out shock early on – Miami trading up to take Burrow anyone? – and the key protagonists in 2020, not least because of their serious Draft capital, are most likely to be Miami.
