WE'RE down to the final four in the race for Super Bowl LIV, with back to back games on Sunday night, starting with the AFC Championship at Arrowhead where the Kansas City Chiefs, fresh from pulling themselves out of a 24-0 hole to destroy the Houston Texans, host this year’s scrappy insurgents the Tennessee Titans.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Tennessee Titans (14/5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (27/100)
Sunday January 19, 20:05
The Titans have surprised so many on route to this game, winning nine of their last 12 matches, and three straight, including playoff wins on the road at the current champs (New England) and the number one seeds (Baltimore). Derrick Henry has been the standout player – not just for his team but in the entire NFL in the last 7-8 weeks, already on 377 rushing yards this post-season, including 195 against a tough Ravens defense.
In contrast, Ryan Tannehill, one of the comeback stories of the year, threw for less than 100 yards in each of the playoff wins, attempting only 25 passes in total. Tennessee hopes ride on whether they can establish Henry once again, this time against a Chiefs defense, that improved dramatically over the final third of the season but showed in the first quarter against Houston that it be challenged, particularly against the run.
But, the Titans are far from one dimensional. Whilst there has been an imbalance in run vs pass plays in the playoffs, Tannehill has still demonstrated his ability – he’s far more than just a game manager, as his 45-yard TD throw to Khalif Raymond against the Ravens, showed. Similarly, his clutch third down completion against the Patriots in the final few minutes – a less showy but nevertheless critically important play. And of course, establishing the run sets up an effective play-action option, and with receivers AJ Brown & Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith, coupled with Tannehill’s accuracy and composure, Tennessee can land some big hits if necessary.
The final three quarters of the Chiefs win against the Texans was exceptional offensive football, masterminded by Andy Reid & OC Eric Bieniemy, not so much dragging their team out a hole, but hitting warp speed. There’s every chance that this type of performance can happen again, given how much this spirited Titans defense has had to give over the last few weeks.
Patrick Mahomes will look to exploit the Tennessee secondary, which is a clear mismatch against the passing offense of the Chiefs, and the depth of weapons the reigning MVP has at his disposal, and his innate improvisational skills and dual threat capability means that Kansas City won't struggle to put up points. The question is, can Tennessee keep up?
PICKS: Kansas City -7 (4/5) and Kansas City over 29.5 Team Points (8/11)
The NFL Final Four is set
Titans vs. Chiefs
Packers vs. 49ers pic.twitter.com/32AJfDUzbC
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 13, 2020
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NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Green Bay Packers (13/5) @ San Francisco 49ers (3/10)
Sunday January 19, 23:40
In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers and Packers square off again, after the one sided 37-8 win for San Francisco earlier in the season. This game should be a lot closer despite the fact that Green Bay flatter to deceive. Close to being the number seed in the NFC, they roll into Levi Stadium without convincing many that they’re genuine Super Bowl contenders, despite having a future HOFer at QB, and talent running through the roster.
In the end, they despatched Seattle reasonably comfortably in the divisional round, despite Russell Wilson doing his thing and clawing his way back into it, and this was down to a number of factors. Aaron Rodgers was focused and on point, leading Davante Adams reminded us why he’s so good (2 TD, 160 yards) and RB Aaron Jones weighed in with two scores.
Additionally, the Packers defense has been playing a lot stronger since the earlier San Fran blowout out – allowed an average of 14.2 points in five December games. On the offensive line, they’ll have Bryan Bulaga back too – a key component particularly against this much vaunted 49’ers pass rush
San Francisco breezed past Minnesota in the divisional round, and did it using a combination of a ground game focus on offense – Tevin Coleman leading the charge – and a complete performance on defense, celebrating the return of Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander, stifling Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota running game, frustrating Kirk Cousins into forcing the issue, which he was unable to do.
Jimmy Garoppolo will be playing the biggest game of his life, and while he’s one of the more relaxed and composed characters, and has played well for much for the season, he’s not (yet) a QB capable of winning a game with some magic in the same way his counterpart is, and he is still prone to mistakes – 18 turnovers over the season the most of any playoff QB. The Packers will want to do what Minnesota failed to accomplish – shut down the run game and force Garoppolo to beat them in the air. But given how Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and of course George Kittle have been for much of the season, it may not be enough to hold the 49ers down.
PICK: Over 46.5 points San Francisco/ Green Bay (10/11)
