TRADITIONALLY, the NBA’s All-Star break is a time for reflection on the season so far, assessing how reality has panned out against pre-season expectations and pondering what the final stretch of games will have in store before the serious business of the playoffs begins in May. With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of the state of play for the eight teams most likely to figure prominently in the post-season this year.
Milwaukee Bucks
Spearheaded by the reigning MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have raced to a league-best 46-8 for the season so far. They are the team to beat thanks not only to the ever-improving game of the NBA’s most-impressive player but also because of the depth of their roster, with coach Mike Budenholzer able to carefully manage his players’ minutes – Antetokounmpo (30.9) is the only player averaging more than 30 minutes per game at present – rotating his line-up without fear of a costly drop-off.
Doubts linger over whether the Bucks can maintain their dominance when it matters in the post-season, though, and that’s why, even if they become only the third team in NBA history to rack up 70 or more regular-season wins, many observers have greater faith in the L.A. teams this year.
But with Antetokounmpo getting noticeably better on an almost weekly basis, and the likes of Khris Middleton, George Hill, Donte DiVincenzo, Eric Bledsoe and the Lopez brothers all contributing, the Bucks look like a lock to at least make the Finals.
NBA Championship odds: 12/5
L.A. Lakers
It’s little surprise that, with a 41-12 record, the Lakers are the top dogs in the West. LeBron James may have celebrated his 35th birthday in December but the four-time MVP is merely evolving, not declining, taking his playmaking skills to new levels – he currently leads the league in assists – while still putting up 25 points per game and playing 35 minutes a night.
And this season has seen James team up with Anthony Davis, whom the Lakers acquired from the New Orleans Pelicans last summer for a historically stocked trade package. The 6’10” power forward is arguably second only to Dwayne Wade as the most talented team-mate James has ever been paired with, and the duo have combined to devastating effect, with Davis taking advantage of No.23’s burgeoning creativity to snatch a ninth-best 26.6 points per game, as well as putting himself in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year.
James and Davis, two of the best eight players in the NBA (even when Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are fit) were always likely to hit it off. The Lakers’ supporting cast that was expected to struggle, though, owing to the fact so many assets and so much cap space was committed to bringing Davis to Staples Center. But coach Frank Vogel has coaxed an impressive output from the likes of Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Avery Bradley and cult hero Alex Caruso.
The Lakers, ideally, could use the addition of a guard to augment their shooting threat and take some of the ball-handling responsibilities when James is off the court, and they may investigate the buy-out market for this. But even if they stick with the formula that has gotten them this far, the Lakers have serious Championship potential.
NBA Championship odds: 3/1
L.A. Clippers
Taken at face value, the season so far has been disappointing for the Clippers, whose 37-18 record is good enough only for third spot in the West, closer in win percentage to the seventh-ranked Dallas Mavericks than the Lakers. Having invested so heavily to sign Kawhi Leonard after he left the Raptors for free agency and then trading big to get Paul George from the Oklahoma City Thunder, and backing up the superstar duo with arguably the strongest depth in the NBA, more was expected.
But it would be a mistake read too much into the Clippers’ stop-start regular season. Using Leonard and George sparingly, allowing both ample time to recover from any niggles picked up and, particularly in the former’s case, making sure old injuries aren’t aggravated by overuse, coach Doc Rivers is banking on his side delivering to their full potential in the post-season.
NBA Championship odds: 33/10
With the addition of Reggie Jackson, the Clippers have SEVEN players who average 10+ points per game
Kawhi: 27.2
Paul George: 21.7
Lou Will: 19.5
Montrezl Harrell: 18.8
Marcus Morris: 11
Landry Shamet: 10.6
REGGIE JACKSON: 14.9 pic.twitter.com/BnHBIQgtqg— Hoops Department (@hoopsdepartment) February 19, 2020
Toronto Raptors
Losing Leonard shattered any notion of Toronto repeating last season’s remarkable title triumph. Or so it was thought. Of course, no longer being able to count upon the Finals MVP, the player who drove their fairy-tale run through the playoffs and victory over the Golden State Warriors last year, weakened the Raptors.
Yet, somehow, the Raptors are performing better this season than they were at the same stage in the previous campaign – their 40-15 record, the second-best in the East, equates to a 72.7 per cent win rate, better than the 70.7 per cent they finished the 2018-19 regular season with.
The driving leadership of Kyle Lowry, the improvements made by Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, and the unexpected contribution of youngsters such as OG Anunoby, Terence Davis and Chris Boucher have come together to fill the Kawhi-shaped void.
NBA Championship odds: 20/1
Boston Celtics
The way the league was shaping up before the season, with Leonard and George at the Clippers, James and Davis on the Lakers and even the 76ers’ Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid or the Houston combo of James Harden and Russell Westbrook, it was difficult to imagine a team rising to the level of genuine title contenders unless they could call upon two of the NBA’s best 10 to 15 players.
That ruled the Boston Celtics out of most NBA Championship discussions. General manager Danny Ainge has established a gritty and talented core of young players, and the signing of point guard Kemba Walker – one player worthy of being considered among the top 15 in the league – aided a chemistry reportedly disrupted by the since-departed Kyrie Irving last season.
While it is still likely the case that two superstar-level players are needed if Championship aspirations are to be held, the Celtics might just have spawned their second in recent weeks, with 21-year-old forward Jayson Tatum delivering on the potential he showed in his rookie year.
We probably won’t see the best of Tatum and this Celtics unit for a couple more years, provided Ainge can keep them together. But Tatum’s form since the turn of the year – particularly in the pre-All-Star double-overtime win over the Clippers – has forced a re-evaluation of Boston’s ceiling this season.
NBA Championship odds: 20/1
Denver Nuggets
Out of shape and struggling to impose himself on games the way he did in 2018-19, when he earned a first All-Star call-up and emerged as the most creative and uniquely gifted big in the league, Nikola Jokic’s motivation and professionalism was brought into question earlier this season. But the 7’0” Serb was just finding his rhythm after the summer break.
Never the kind of physical specimen to rival the NBA’s uber-athletes, even at his best Jokic doesn’t cut the most intimidating figure. It doesn’t stop him being one of the most feared players in the game, though, thanks to his wide-ranging offensive skillset. Third in the league in triple-doubles, behind only James and Luka Doncic, Jokic has the handle and creative passing of a point guard, the shooting range of a wing and the scoring threat to trouble the meanest defences.
Surrounded by blossoming young talents such as Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, Jokic and the 38-17 Nuggets are more than capable of a deep playoff run.
NBA Championship odds: 20/1
Turned on airplane mode. ✈ pic.twitter.com/oyU85UEMo0
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) February 18, 2020
Philadelphia 76ers
Before the season began, the Sixers were a lot of peoples’ pick to emerge from the East to take on one of the L.A. teams in the NBA Finals. On paper, they have it all. In Simmons and Embiid, they have two potential superstars, arguably the game’s best defender and the most talented big man. The addition of Al Horford added size, experience and versatility in the front court, and forward Tobias Harris, now on his fifth team since being drafted in 2011, was made to feel loved by the award of a bumper five-year, $180m contract.
But as their disappointing 43-21 record suggests, things haven’t clicked often enough for Philadelphia this season, with the lingering question mark over whether Embiid and Simmons can both be at their best on the same team becoming the prevalent narrative of their campaign. The 76ers have the talent to go all the way – that much has never been in doubt. But a lack of harmony is making them weaker than the sum of their individual parts.
NBA Championship odds: 14/1
Houston Rockets
The Rockets’ dalliance into the world of small ball has quickly gone from experiment to identity. After playing around with a five made up entirely of players no taller than 6’5” and finding some success, helping spread the floor for superstar duo Harden and Westbrook, Houston doubled down on the approach at the Trade Deadline, letting go of 6’10” centre Clint Capela and bringing in small forward Robert Covington and starting him in the 5 position in an impressive win over the in-form Celtics before the All-Star break.
Whether this radical approach can work in the playoffs remains to be seen, but a club boasting two former MVPs, one of whom the league’s leading scorer, can never be discounted. If nothing else, it’ll be fun to see how far the small-ball Rockets can go.
NBA Championship odds: 12/1
