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Virtual Grand National – Past Winning ‘Trends’

Unibet Racing |

April 3, 2020

THE Virtual Grand National takes centre stage on ITV1 on Saturday in the absence of any real life racing in the UK and Ireland, and Unibet, along with other firms will be taking bets on the race in accordance with the Betting and Gaming Council and donating all profits on the race to NHS Charities. For a bit of fun we’ve profiled the last three winners of the virtual race to see who fits the trends for this year’s renewal, though before you go any further please note that the odds supplied to us reflect the relative probability of that horse winning  – this means Tiger Roll, the 5/1 favourite, has the best chance of winning regardless of how he measures up to our selected ‘trends’. Any Second Now, 10/1 second favourite, has the second likeliest chance of winning the race and so on and so on. Essentially that makes this ‘trends’ piece completely redundant from a tipping point of view as there’s no chance of finding ‘an angle’ or ‘value in the implied probability of winning against the actual probability of winning’.

So if you’re here for tips or a betting angle please stop reading now!

That aside it’s still a bit of fun to profile the past winners of the Virtual Grand National and interesting to see which of this year’s runners are consistent with the criteria the past winners displayed heading into the virtual race. Namely we will look at ‘Class’, ‘Form’, ‘Stamina’, ‘Experience’ and ‘Handicap Rating’.

 

Reminder of the past winners (a staggeringly good record too, to be fair!)

2017 – Cause Of Causes (went on to be 2nd in the real race) – Watch the virtual race here

2018 – Tiger Roll (went on to win the real race) – Watch the virtual race here

2019 – Rathvinden (went on to be 3rd in the real race) – Watch the virtual race here

 

At this point we should just note that this isn’t a typical Virtual Grand National as just the top 40 entries to the race have been taken so the bottom rating and bottom weights are higher than they would have been in a typical year. This presents problems for our first trend…

 

Class – All three winners were rated 150 or more

These days more than ever a certain amount of class is needed to win the Grand National and all three winners of the Virtual Grand National have been rated 150 or more, therefore heading into the race with a proven level of ability (and all had actually been tried at Grade 1 level in their careers).

 

Rathvinden – 12lbs off top weight and 12lbs off bottom weight (number 13) – Rating 154

Tiger Roll – 11lbs off top and 8lbs off bottom (number 13) – Rating 150

Cause Of Causes – 11lbs off top and 7lbs off bottom (number 14) – Rating 150

 

Although we don’t lose anyone at this stage, we will revisit this criterion towards the end of the article!

 

Form – All won last time out

All three winners of the Virtual Grand National came into the race on the back of a win, suggesting the machine puts a certain level of weight behind a horse arriving in good form (note here whatever weight it does apply is factored into the supplied odds). This is significant as we lose, among others, the first and second from last year’s real race, the well fancied Tiger Roll (whose form in his prep races this time round is clearly not as impressive as last year) and Magic Of Light. In fact only nine of the forty now remain.

Now, to state again, we know Tiger Roll is the likeliest winner as the odds reflect the relative chance of winning, but for the purpose of the enjoyment of this article he is gone.

Still remaining – Total Recall, Ballyoptic, Burrows Saint, Definitely Red, Ok Corral, Accapella Bourgeois, Any Second Now, Potters Corner, Kimberlite Candy.

 

Stamina – All had won over 3 and a half miles or more (and the front 2 each year of the VGN had all at least run over 4 miles)

The reality is that all three of the previous Virtual National winners had proven stamina by winning the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival but it seems too narrow to make that part of the criteria. Instead we’ll say they’d all proven their stamina over extreme staying trips, and for this we’ll take over 3 and half miles. Definitely Red, who we lose here, headed into the 2017 Virtual Grand National off the back of an impressive win over 3 miles 2 furlongs before fading tamely in the Virtual event. It should be noted that Total Recall was third in the 2018 event having not won over further than the Hennessy trip of 3m2f, but he flattened out in the online event having lead at the elbow, so it’s hard to see him improving this time round carrying more weight and with the added fact that he was stuffed in the real 2018 renewal which the machine might factor in! The machine has rewarded proven stayers on all three occasions (and note dour stayer Chase The Spud came second in the 2018 renewal), so we’ll use form over staying trips (such as the Irish and Welsh Nationals) as a key criterion in selecting our pick(s).

Lose: Acappella Bourgeois, Any Second Now, Total Recall, Definitely Red.

 

Experience – All had had over 10 chase starts

It makes sense that jumping experience would be a factor in winning the Grand National and thus it would be no surprise if it were also a factor in the Virtual counterpart. All three of the previous winners (and in fact all of the front three for all three years) had had over 10 chase starts so we lose the relatively inexperienced pair of Ok Corral and Burrows Saint (who is in fact, interestingly, we know the third likeliest winner of the race with odds of 12/1!). But still, for the sake of the article if nothing else, we’re sticking to our virtual ‘trend’ and he is gone.

Lose – Burrows Saint and Ok Corral

 

Handicap Rating – 150 to 154

It shouldn’t be forgotten that the Virtual Grand National is a handicap and the machine has appeared to favour class individuals who are towards the top of the ratings but still considerably below top weight (11lbs or more on all three previous occasions!). This can be seen in that the virtual winners were all rated between 150 and 154. Ordinarily this would be higher in the weights than it is due to a number of horses running in the Virtual Grand National on account of them taking the first 40 entries rather than the 40 declarations. Applying this criteria we lose Ballyoptic who is off 157 and was never sighted in last year’s Virtual event off 155.

 

Remaining Duo

This leaves us with in form Potters Corner, who proved his stamina in the Welsh National and who might still be well handicapped and Kimberlite Candy, who won well over a marathon trip to creep into the race near the bottom of the weights. Both have plenty of chasing experience and at 18/1 and 16/1 we know they’re two of the likelier winners of the race as the odds supplied to us represent the relative chance of winning. The race is live on ITV1 on Saturday afternoon, our market is up on site and all profits we (and other firms) make on bets taken on the race will be donated to NHS Charities.

Please note once more that the odds supplied to us (and all betting firms) reflect the relative probability of that horse winning.

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