WHO is going to win the 240th running of the Investec sponsored Epsom Derby? Well I’m not sure at this stage any of us even know what will start favourite for the big race; indeed, the favourite and/or the winner may not even be entered in the race as of now.
This time last year was oh so very different as 2,000 Guineas hero Saxon Warrior was odds on to complete a famous double with many of those ‘in the know’ prematurely calculating their Triple Crown returns believing the Epsom classic was a mere penalty kick on the road to Doncaster and the St. Leger.
But this year’s Epsom renewal reminds me of the 2017 race. I remember being interviewed on Radio5 Live by Eleanor Oldroyd as the horses cantered to the start with 9/2 the field being readily available with 15 minutes to go before post time.
Eventually it was Cracksman who returned the 7/2 favourite but the race itself went to the Aidan O’Brien trained Wings of Eagles at 40/1 – one of six trained by the Master of Ballydoyle that year.
At Tuesday’s Breakfast With The Stars media morning, Aidan O’Brien revealed to host Nick Luck that he may have even more runners in the race this year – with seven being mentioned. Not quite his own personal best – his record in the race is an almost unbelievable eight in 2007. And he didn’t even win that year.
Sir Dragonet
Anthony Van Dyck
Norway
Cape Of Good Hope
Circus Maximus
Broome
Japan7⃣ Aidan could still send all seven of these to the Investec Derby. Mohawk more likely to go to France #BWTS @aobrienfansite
— Unibet Racing (@UnibetRacing) May 21, 2019
Such is Aidan’s dominance of the Derby market this season – he has four of the first six in the betting – Unibet make him just 1/3 to win the race for a 7th time, 10/1 he saddles the 1,2,3 and 11/4 he is responsible for the first two in the race – as he was in 2002 and 2017.
This season most of the Investec Derby trials have been swept up by the Aidan O’Brien team and he must have a handle on most form lines – so it’s no surprise he has the favourite for the race in the form of Broome – 7/2 with Unibet. He was 33/1 before winning the Ballysax in April, but by the time he lined up in the Derrinstown Derby Trial in May he was as low as 10/1. His victory that day saw him cut to 6/1 and he has been on his way towards 7/2 ever since.
To me though, it’s Sir Dragonet who is the most interesting one of Aidan’s possible septet.
Seemingly discarded from Derby calculations (connections didn’t see the necessity in stumping up £1,100 to keep him in the race) he made a winning racecourse debut on April 25th, yet just 13 days later he had won the Chester Vase and was down to 8/1 with Unibet to win the 2019 Investec Derby. Now half that price, the question seems to be will he be supplemented or kept for either the French or Irish Derby? £85,000 by midday on Monday 27th May must be paid to allow him run at Epsom. What would you do?
Some have suggested he is too inexperienced for the Epsom race, citing his debut coming as it did only on April 25th – but the stable’s 2013 Derby winner, Ruler of the World, had the same profile – albeit he won his maiden seven days earlier. For me, a larger question mark is his ability to cope as well under faster ground conditions as he did under slower ground at Chester.
Anthony Van Dyck is aiming to become the first horse since High-Rise in 1998 to complete the Lingfield Derby Trial/Investec Derby double, and only the eighth ever. The son of Galileo had very good two-year form and seemed to benefit from the extra distance at Lingfield and seemingly goes to Epsom with decent chances. He is 4/1 second favourite with Unibet. A concern to me is that recently this Lingfield Derby Trial has been a rather poor one for pinpointing Derby class contenders, relative to the other trials around the same time at other tracks.
This century, of those who have finished in the first three at Lingfield and have gone onto Epsom to contest the Derby, none have won, and just 3/29 have been placed (Main Sequence 2012; Aqualeem 2007; Walk in the Park 2005)
The Dante on the other hand has proved a much more reliable and robust Derby trial.
Since 2000, 37 horses who have finished 1st,2nd or 3rd have contested the Derby and no less than 14 have been placed – five of those winning the Derby itself namely; Golden Horn in 2015; Workforce in 2010; Authorised in 2007, Motivator in 2005 and North Light in 2004.
This year’s renewal has been knocked by some, but I would be confident that as in most seasons this year’s Dante will prove one of the more reliable trials in that many that ran may well etch their names upon some of the top races over 8f, 10f and 12f as the year progresses.
To many, Too Darn Hot’s shock defeat at the hands of Telecaster, with 4 lengths back to the third, Surfman, signalled a poor renewal of the race. But having spoken to Roger Varian today I sensed that the third is very well regarded and thought more than capable of holding his own in the very best of G1s later in the year, while John Gosden and Frankie Dettori were quick to suggest a drop in trip for last year’s top rated two year old, Too Darn Hot, would bring about more notable successes as a three year old.
Telecaster was given an exquisite ride by Oisin Murphy that day to fend off Too Darn Hot and despite showing great speed, Telecaster’s breeding – his dad New Approach won an Investec Derby while his mother, Shirocco Star was second in an Investec Oaks and other 12-furlong G1 events – suggests he will be at least as effective at the extra distance, if not better for it.
Many, including his trainer Hughie Morrison are questioning the gap of just 16 days from Dante to Derby. It is undoubtedly a tight turn around, but it has been done before – in fact Telecaster’s sire New Approach did it himself in 2008 (having finished a head second to Henrythenavigator in the Irish 2000 Guineas) with just a 14 day turnaround – while his dam, Shirocco Star also turned around a 14 day return to the track when finishing a neck second to Was in the 2012 Oaks having placed a short head second at Newbury two weeks earlier.
Throwback to NEW APPROACH winning the 2008 Derby – who joined us that year? pic.twitter.com/BXVQ76afH0
— EpsomDownsRacecourse (@EpsomRacecourse) February 28, 2019
Telecaster was 20/1 with Unibet for the Derby before winning the Dante Stakes at York, on the back of a scintillating 9 length victory at Windsor in April. He was immediately cut to 10/1 after his Dante success and now resides at 7/1, but will surely be shorter if he is confirmed a certain runner
Bangkok, himself a son of a Derby winner in Australia, took Sandown Park’s Classic Trial following victory in 32Red Casino maiden stakes at Doncaster on March 30th where he beat Telecaster – the pair 9 lengths clear of their field on Unibet Lincoln Day.
Many of us at Doncaster that day thought that if we had seen a subsequent G1 performer at Donny it was either Auxerre in the Unibet Lincoln or Invincible Army – but it could well be that Bangkok or Telecaster – or both – could be the Group One horses we saw that day instead. If either of them does win the Derby we’re changing the title of the race next year to ‘classic trial’ – surely a first for a maiden race!
Telecaster a fantastic winner of the Dante at @yorkracecourse this afternoon for @oismurphy, Hughie Morrison and Castle Down Racing!
They were second here at #Doncaster behind @silvdsousa and Bangkok in March on Lincoln Day pic.twitter.com/9nspXIlIkL
— Doncaster Racecourse (@DoncasterRaces) May 16, 2019
Bangkok is improving all the time and is the first non Ballydoyle entry in Unibet’s betting at 7/1. Andrew Balding told me today that the horse represents his best ever chance of winning the race.
It would be wonderful for racing if the family name Balding won this great race some 38 years after Ian Balding, Andrew’s father, saddled Mill Reef to win the race, while it would also mark an amazing postscript to horses racing in the blue and white colours of 2015-16 Premier League champions Leicester City's late chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha. It was just two years ago that he started his King Power Racing team.
