EVER heard of the Gunderson Method? It sounds a little like Frederick Forsyth thriller but it is, in fact, a neat calculation that permits ski jumping points to be converted into cross-country staggered start times in Nordic Skiing’s combined event.

At first glance, you might wonder what on earth this has to do with golf. But the Gunderson Method inspired the Starting Strokes which the PGA Tour decided would revamp its Tour Championship back in 2019. In this instance, points are accrued through the season, more are available in the last two weeks of Playoffs, and now 30 players will fight for the FedExCup from the following positions:

-10 Scottie Scheffler
-8 Patrick Cantlay
-7 Will Zalatoris
-6 Xander Schauffele
-5 Sam Burns
-4 Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka

Notice anything peculiar about that state of affairs? How about the fact that Austria’s Straka is sitting inside the top 10 and Matt Fitzpatrick isn’t. The latter has landed 10 top 10 finishes this year including victory in the US Open and fifth in the PGA Championship. Straka, in contrast, has registered only four top 10s, his win was in a regular event, but he was – crucially – second in that first Playoff.

Asked about the situation last week the Englishman said of the system: “I’m just a little bit uneasy with it. I think if you’ve played well all year, you deserve to be at the top. The Playoffs throw that out. I don’t think it’s fair, but life isn’t fair.”

Jon Rahm was a little less sanguine about the situation. “I don’t think it’s the best system,” he said. “You don’t get to the Super Bowl and the team with the better record starts with a two-touchdown advantage. Djokovic didn’t have a one-set advantage over Kyrgios at Wimbledon. I understand it’s easier for the viewers and us to know what’s going on. I’ve spoken to past champions and they didn’t know if they were winning the FedExCup. It was a bit confusing so I understand that aspect of it. But I think it’s absolutely ludicrous.”

It’s also a pest to punt on. In the first edition Rory McIlroy did shoot the low score of the week at East Lake and also win the FedExCup. But in 2020 Dustin Johnson was tied third in the scoring when he emerged victorious and last year Cantlay tied fourth when he triumphed. It’s the betting equivalent of a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but let’s have a go at it.

Winner – Xander Schauffele at 7/1

There’s no doubt that the top five are in a dominant position at the start of the week. McIlroy had started the first event on 5-under so overcame a five shot starting deficit, but Johnson and Cantlay failed to be caught when starting the week in first place.

Let’s take a look at the leaders in turn. Scheffler was the second low scorer on the course in 2020 and third last week. Cantlay is seeking to complete the double of winning the last two events of the season but can he do so without the lead? He was the fourth low scorer last year, the first time he finished in the top half of the field in four visits. Will Zalatoris is a course debutant and also had to withdraw last week with a bad back. Sam Burns was T17th in the scoring on debut last year and has improved his position every start for the last five but has also gone six starts without a top 15.

Of all of them I like Xander Schauffele the most. With the exception of the St Jude Championship (his first start in a month so he was rusty) he’s finished top 20 in every event he’s played since the Masters, winning twice on his own (plus alongside Cantlay in the Zurich Classic and in the JP McManus Pro Am). He was also third last weekend.

Nor should we ignore his spectacular record on the course, winning on debut in 2017 and finishing seventh on defence. Since the new format has come in he’s ranked second, first and third in the scoring and this will be the first time he is closer than six strokes off the lead. He’s still got four shots to overcome but that’s surmountable for a man who has gone sub-70 in 18 of his 20 rounds at East Lake (and sub-68 in half of them).

Each Way – Sepp Straka at 150/1

He might be a little fortunate to be in the position he is at the start of this week, but Straka might be up to making the most of it. He’s landed seven top fives on the PGA Tour and six of them have been on Bermuda grass greens which he will face again this week. He also won at PGA National which is a strong tee-to-green test (once again like this week) and he was, of course, second just two weeks ago. After carding a pair of 68s last weekend he can make the places at a big price.

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