TWELVE months ago this week Hideki Matsuyama thrashed a brilliant 9-under-par 63 in round one of THE PLAYERS Championship and went to bed basking in the glory of a two-shot lead over the field. If the poor fellow has any sweet dreams that night he was rudely awakened by news that the event had been cancelled and all his good work had been wiped from the record books. Golf, like the rest of the world, had gone into lockdown.
By mid-summer, of course, golf had discovered itself well-placed to negotiate the new normal and the PGA Tour schedule has largely pottered on without too many cancellations or disruptions. And now we find ourselves back at the circuit’s headquarters – TPC Sawgrass, home to a lavish clubhouse and the famous Pete Dye designed Stadium Course. Here are three players who can enjoy a big week.
Each Way – Webb Simpson 20/1
I bow to no man in my admiration for Webb Simpson’s ability to play golf on Bermuda greens. The 2012 US Open champion is, of course, a very good golfer on any putting surfaces, but when there is grain in the grass the 35-year-old is just sensational (and don’t discount that it has an equally beneficial effect on his approach play and chipping). Consider this: in his last 15 starts on grainy greens he’s landed nine top six finishes, of which seven were top three, two of them victories.
The most recent of those top sixes was two weeks ago in the WGC Workday Championship and, in point of fact, he thrived that week tee-to-green (ranking third in Strokes Gained for that category) rather than with the flat-stick. A solid long game is a necessity at Sawgrass and if he also rediscovers his mojo with the putter he’s well capable of landing a second victory in this tournament. I also like that he features so highly in the par-4 averages over the last 18 months on tour – it’s another key ingredient to Sawgrass success.
World Golf Rankings ⛳️
➖ 1 Dustin Johnson
➖ 2 Jon Rahm
➖ 3 Justin Thomas
➖ 4 Collin Morikawa
➖ 5 Xander Schauffele
⬆️ 6 Bryson DeChambeau
⬇️ 7 Tyrrell Hatton
⬆️ 8 Patrick Reed
⬇️ 9 Patrick Cantlay
➖ 10 Webb Simpson*Ahead of the #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/REXIs24xPH
— SuperSport (@SuperSportTV) March 8, 2021
Each Way – Abraham Ancer 70/1
Down the years this event has often been claimed by players whose win-to-expectation ratio has been worse than it should have been and if Abraham Ancer were to lift the trophy on Sunday he’d certainly join the ranks of those golfers. TPC Sawgrass is also a track that somewhat shackles many of the world’s finest players. Tiger Woods would often find it hard to say the right things of it, instead muttering darkly about “everyone hitting from the same spots”. That’s not to say a world class performer can’t or won’t win here. The field is clearly packed with them so it’s inevitable that many will have a good week, but it’s also not a tournament to be frightened of looking beyond the top of the market – more reason, in fact, to look for the Ancer elsewhere.
This week will be the Mexican’s second appearance at the event (not counting last year) and on debut in 2019 he was in-contention all week before finishing T12th. Moreover, although he is yet to win on the PGA Tour, he is a three-time runner-up and two of those near-misses involved Pete Dye designs – PGA West’s Stadium Course and Harbour Town. In recent months he has shared the halfway lead in the Masters, added fifth place to his second at PGA West, and two weeks ago was strong tee to green when finishing T18th in the WGC Workday Championship.
Outsider – Chris Kirk 125/1
The story of Chris Kirk has been one of the more upbeat and inspirational over the last couple of years and it’s really not out of the question that there is more to come. The 35-year-old is a four-time PGA Tour winner, but in May 2019 announced he needed to take “indefinite leave” from the sport to deal with alcohol and depression issues. Just over a year later he headed to Florida for a second tier event, completed a fine victory, and in recent week has genuinely started to transfer that form to the main stage.
Five of his last seven starts have reaped top 20 finishes and four of them were on Bermuda greens (his favoured surface). The best of those was second in the Sony Open and the most recent a fine tied eighth last week at Bay Hill. At first glance his record in this event is solid with seven cuts made in his eight completed starts. Three of those results were top 20s, but one of them was actually a lot better than that because in 2015 he led the tournament by one shot with 18 holes to play. He can contend again this week.
