IF we’ve learned one thing in the podcast era it is that social scientists are exceptionally smart at unpicking the absurdity of human experience. They have, for example, identified all manner of cognitive biases that reveal what absolutely Charlies we are in day-to-day life (and all the more foolish because we refuse to admit as much). The effect of these inclinations is profound, even warping our capacity to be a remotely competent eyewitness to a simple crime. Yes, give three people a bird’s eye view of a robbery and the trio will confidently provide three vastly different descriptions of the villain.
Something similar happens during major championships. One hundred and fifty-six golfers play it, millions of golfers watch it on television, and all of them have a different take on it. For the players, the confirmation bias might be called the Leaderboard Effect.
Take this week. At the halfway stage of the 105th PGA Championship, Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners and Viktor Hovland share the lead on 5-under 135, two shots clear of Justin Suh and Bryson DeChambeau, and three ahead of Brooks Koepka and Callum Tarren.
According to Scheffler, the host course Oak Hill is just fine. “You get rewarded for good shots out here,” he said after carding 67-68. “And if you execute, you can birdie pretty much any hole.” Conners (67-68) said: “I’ve been excited to get here for a while.” While Hovland (68-67) added: “I feel like this course fits me well.”
In contrast, the World No. 1 Jon Rahm, who carded a first round 76 and was heading for a missed cut before rallying late in his second round, muttered pointedly “ahhhh, great hole PGA, great f**king hole” after running through the green at the par-3 11th.
Tremendous stuff and hopefully we have a terrific weekend of action lined up. Justin Rose sits alongside Taylor Pendrith in a share of eighth on 1-under, the two of them the leading performers in the late-early wave so entitled to feel a little wronged by the draw. And among the nine players currently level-par are Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry and club professional Michael Block who is having the week of his life and is rewarded with a Saturday pairing with Rose.
"I don't know why that makes me emotional but it does."
Michael Block was brought to tears when he was told he is out in front of Masters champion Jon Rahm.
On a trying Oak Hill course, he shot 70-70 and will make the cut @PGAChampionship. pic.twitter.com/FbDV0GHEVd
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 19, 2023
The Numbers
First of all, we can’t ignore the intro and, yes, Gambler’s Fallacy is a thing (believing the future is affected by the past). Bear it in mind. Also consider that no less than 25 of the last 30 PGA Championship winners were tied second or better at this stage (and all 30 were tied seventh or better). It was last year’s winner Justin Thomas who was tied seventh and he was also seven strokes back of the lead – comfortably the biggest deficit made up in the period and 27 of the winners had been within three shots of the lead.
What about at Oak Hill? The course has hosted three US Opens and three PGA Championships, and has undoubtedly undergone a significant renovation that includes remodelling and new holes. But those first six major winners at the course were all tied third or better at halfway and the last three were part of the lead at this stage (in quirky fashion all three fell out of the lead in round three before bouncing back).
The Betting
The tournament preview highlighted Scheffler’s qualities and he’s delivered. Those qualities (major winner, multiple PGA Tour winner, relentless contender) also impress the compilers and on a course where three or four shots could go very quickly the current price looks short enough. The numbers are good for Hovland and Conners, with the prices about right. The one price that looks a touch awry is DeChambeau at 14/1 but it’s not so out as to be tempting. Instead, stick with what we’ve got – Scheffler going for the win, with Shane Lowry (also noted in the preview) five back and chasing the place – and concentrate on the third round match-ups (tie no bet).
Shane Lowry vs Rory McIlroy
Both have had their woes in the majors this year. McIlroy was always fighting at Augusta and that has continued this week. Indeed, the fact he is even this close to the leaders has prompted him to roll his eyeballs on multiple occasions. Lowry, meanwhile, gave himself birdie look after birdie look at Augusta and then again through 25 holes this week, taking almost none of them. Then they started to fall on the back nine yesterday – and then he dropped two shots on 17 and 18. That flat finish could leave him a touch deflated in round three, especially if he starts slowly. And McIlroy could fire with a little pressure released. The opposite could happen with both of them, too. The key is the price which I’d have shorter.
Bryson DeChambeau vs Brooks Koepka
This pair, remember, have history. McIlroy might have been rolling his eyeballs at himself this week, but Koepka famously rolled his at DeChambeau’s entire shtick. As with the first pick, there is potential for both players to respond well or badly to the current situation. The key, again, is the price. DeChambeau is playing well, looking happier and could get under Koepka’s skin. I’d have him shorter.
Sepp Straka vs Keith Mitchell
And ditto for pick three, the Austrian Sepp Straka, in the battle of the former Honda Classic champions. Both players proved in the week of their triumphs at PGA National (a PGA Championship-hosting course in the past) that, at their best, they can ball-strike to a high level. Neither has quite sustained that throughout a major championship week, however. I’d have this on a knife edge so will take the Austrian on price.
MATT’S TREBLE
Like Matt’s reasoning with his selections for his third round match-ups? Why not roll them all up into a treble? All three pays 16/1!
Alternatively, why not create your very own Bet Builder? Perhaps you’ll land an ace!
