REGULAR readers will understand how much the column appreciated Brooks Koepka’s victory in the PGA Championship 12 months ago. True, he wasn’t a selection, but the American’s fifth major championship triumph was a fine example of the theory that majors are most often won by golfers with recent experience of contending in them.
In Koepka’s case, he led the Masters in April 2023 by four shots when he woke on Sunday morning. Admittedly he was midway through the third round, but he still held an advantage with 18 holes to play before Jon Rahm left him in his wake.
Asked that evening if he could use the experience in the future Koepka said, in words vaguely reminiscent of Humphrey Bogart’s character Rick in Casablanca: “Probably not today, probably not for the next few days, but eventually it will be a positive.”
A fortnight later, Koepka was at LIV Adelaide and his walk-on song at the stadium hole was “Dreams and Nightmares” by Meek Mill. He might have been thinking of the aftermath of his Masters near-miss because he admitted ahead of last year’s PGA Championship at Oak Hill: “I didn’t sleep that night just trying to figure out what went wrong. It sucks to finish second, but at the same time, as long as you learn from it, you’ll be fine.”
By Saturday night he was leading again and replied bullishly when asked what main lesson he had learned a month earlier. “To never think the way I thought going into the final round,” he said. “I won’t do that again the rest of my career.”
A final round 67 contrasted with the 75 he had carded at Augusta and was good for a two-shot victory whereupon he further expanded on this theme, saying: “I don’t think I would have won if Augusta hadn’t happened, right? Failure is how you learn. You get better from it. You realize what mistakes you’ve made.”
No less than 24 of the last 27 major champions either finished top eight or were top four with 18 holes to play in one of the four majors that preceded their triumph. As Koepka discovered, mistakes are made, nerves are tested and hopefully lessons are learned.
As it happens, Koepka was back to school at the Masters this year even though his golf could hardly have been different to last April as he limped home in 45th. “I think the embarrassment of Augusta really kicked things into overdrive for me,” he admitted after bouncing back with victory in Singapore two weeks ago. “I don’t enjoy playing bad. It’s not fun. I had to grind a little bit harder.”
Here are this week’s picks.
Each Way – Bryson DeChambeau at 28/1
Host course Valhalla is a Jack Nicklaus design and his most famous creation, Muirfield Village, may provide clues. Tom Watson and Hale Irwin have won senior majors at Valhalla and are both two-time winners at Muirfield Village. Tiger Woods won the 2000 PGA at Valhalla and was a five-time winner at Muirfield Village. Mark Brooks won the 1996 PGA at Valhalla shortly after finishing top-10 at Muirfield Village three times in a row – and he beat three-time Muirfield Village winner Kenny Perry in a play-off. 2014 Valhalla champion Rory McIlroy has only one Muirfield Village top five but weeks before that success he carded a 63 (with a double bogey) for a three-shot first round lead at … you guessed it – Muirfield Village.
That could be good news for Jon Rahm who has won once (and would have won twice but for a positive Covid test) at Muirfield Village, but he needs to overcome a general sense of unease. Patrick Cantlay has won twice at Muirfield Village but is yet to convince in the majors. DeChambeau won at Muirfield Village in 2018, he landed the US Open in 2020 and in recent times has become a major contender again. He was fourth in this event last year and sixth in the Masters last month. Kentucky man Justin Thomas revealed that the course will be playing wet and long this week. That’s the clincher.
Each Way – Max Homa at 28/1
I’m on 2020 PGA Champion Collin Morikawa ante-post because he has wins on three different Nicklaus courses, but the wet/long conditions are a concern. So Max Homa, who has finally worked out major championship golf, gets the nod. Three of the Californian’s six PGA Tour wins have come on major-hosting tracks so it always seemed a little incongruous that he had no top 10 in them until the Open last year. Then again, he’s a cautious learner who needed three goes to settle on the PGA Tour. He contended all week when third in the Masters and warmed up for this week with a top 10 last week. He’s also finished top six in his last two starts at Muirfield Village.
Each Way – Brooks Koepka at 16/1
Can he really win again this week? There appears no reason why not. He’s won both the US Open and this championship back-to-back before. In 11 PGA starts he’s got six top five finishes including three wins. In the nomadic US majors (the two that are most alike) he has 21 starts, 11 top five finishes, five of them wins. It’s a formidable record and he was the joint low-scorer at the weekend in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla. The two favourites, Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy, are strong but also short in price.
Each Way – Sepp Straka at 90/1
In finishing seventh at last year’s PGA Championship the Austrian dropped a hint that he was a lively major outsider, he proved it with second at the Open two months later and he can ride that wave this week. He’s in a fine run of form that takes in top 20s in the Players Championship and the Masters, a top five at Harbour Town, and a top 10 last week. He’s also taken to Nicklaus designs. He won a second tier event on one, won his first PGA Tour title at PGA National (a Nicklaus renovation), and he has two top 20s at Muirfield Village.
