Matt Cooper | WM Phoenix Open betting preview: Echavarria can go well at a huge price

 

 

Take Phil Mickelson who lived for a short time in Scottsdale as a child, went to university nearby and won the tournament three times, inspired and motivated by a course that, given that it is designed to reward risk takers, was basically made for him.

 

Take the pant-hitching Mark Calcavecchia who was another three-time winner in Scottsdale. Most multiple winners might land one straightforward victory, but the Calc managed the feat not once, not twice, but three times – by the ridiculous margins of seven, five and eight strokes.

 

Take Brooks Koepka who, until he joined LIV (where he has five wins), struggled to raise his game for regular PGA Tour events. Instead, it was the majors that got his juices flowing except, that is, for this event where the raucous crowds lit his fuse. He won in 2015, again in 2021 and was third in 2022.

 

Take Scottie Scheffler who was gaining something of a reputation for fluffing winning opportunities before he finally broke through to win at Scottsdale in 2022. He’d been top four on a PGA Tour 18, 36 or 54 hole leaderboard no less than 17 times before that week without lifting a trophy. Since and including that triumph he now has 16 PGA Tour wins to his name (official, unofficial and Olympic). One of those other wins was a successful defence of this tournament and he was third last year (having been seventh in 2021).

 

Talking of the difference between the early version of himself and the winning machine he has become, he said last year, “In my rookie year if I struggled on Saturday I may have gotten upset.” In contrast, he has learned, “to stay patient and I don’t force things, I wait for the golf tournament to kind of come to me.” Since last weekend Scheffler had also entered a calendar sweet spot because since 2022 he has played 23 events in February, March and April. Only once has he failed to finish in the top 12, 14 times he ended the week in the top four and he’s wrapped up the win an astonishing 10 times.

 

Little wonder he is the (very) short price favourite this week. Of course, there are other ways to judge an event than just the champions. By the fans that attend it, for example. At the Masters they call them patrons and they’re not allowed to run. At the Open they’re said to be the shrewdest in the sport, applauding good shots rather than pretty ones. At the WM Phoenix Open, in contrast, the fans get leathered, fling beer at the green, pick verbal fights with players, and engage in fisty-cuff fights with each other. Think Edgbaston’s Eric Hollies Stand only packed with hammered jocks from Arizona State University rather than Villa fans. But get this: Edgbaston’s entire ground capacity is 25,000 and the par-3 stadium 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale caters for 20,000 which means it’s not one Eric Hollies Stand all beered up but four or five – astonishing!

 

Anyway, here are three picks against Scheffler:

 

I’m writing this preview from the little Atlantic island of Madeira, and it is a little-known fact that four-time PGA Tour winner Charley Hoffman first poked his head onto a main tour leaderboard on the island, finishing fifth in an event that was a one-time early-in-the-year staple of the European Tour schedule. The Californian has gone onto greater things, of course, and is currently enjoying something of career Indian Summer. It started at this event 12 months ago when he finished 64-64 to land a spot in the play-off which he lost to Nick Taylor. But his capacity to go low has maintained ever since. He was second after 18 holes in the Dominican Republic, led after round one at Colonial, was fourth at the same stage at Sedgefield, and carded a second round 63 when fifth in The American Express last month. The ability to go low, allied to fond memories of last year, make him a tempting price in round one.

Scheffler is good. Around TPC Scottsdale he is very good. And Justin Thomas isn’t bad. His record (eight top 20s in 10 starts) just lacks the win and he’s also finished second in two of his last four starts so he was tempting. Very tempting. But the column needs exciting prices outside of the majors so we’ll look elsewhere. McNealy landed a first PGA Tour win in November and last February he finished sixth at TPC Scottsdale. He seems to quite like the desert just east of California – he closed the last two Shriner Children’s Opens in Las Vegas with rounds of 64.

 

The Chilean was on fire late in 2024 winning the ZOZO Championship before adding second places in the WWT Championship and RSM Classic. He was second again at the start of the year in the Sony Open but a missed cut and T77 has seen him ranked among the also rans this week and that’s worth taking on. He loves to attack a course and TPC Scottsdale rewards such an attitude. On his debut Echavarria shot 76-69 which shows both his ability to blow up but also hints at potential. More experienced, settled and in better form, he can contend this week and is a big price to do so.