There is a weird sense of deja vu whenever Rory McIlroy makes his way to the Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. In a straightforward sense, it’s because he has a sensational record at the course when it hosts this event. He’s played it 10 times in such circumstances, recording eight top 10 finishes of which three were victories (in 2010, 2015, and the last time the course hosted the event in 2021).
But the familiarity goes beyond even those consistent returns because the Northern Irishman said in 2019: “I love this place. I even feel like I don’t even have to play that good and I can still get it round.” And here’s the nub of the matter: not only does he feel like he doesn’t have to play that well to perform there, he also keeps testing that notion by rocking up with big question marks stamped all across his form.
Take his debut in 2010 when he was a rookie on the PGA Tour with a huge reputation that he was struggling to live up to it. He only made the weekend by the skin of his teeth whereupon he tore through the field to win by four, saying afterwards with commendable understatement: “I flushed it.”
And what of his last start there? Well, he tested his own theory more comprehensively than ever because the five strokeplay rounds ahead of his arrival at the course had been among the worst of his career. He’d finished the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 76 that he admitted had him “a little dejected” and then it got worse. Not only did he miss the cut at both the Players Championship and the Masters, he never looked like doing anything else when shooting 79-75 at TPC Sawgrass and 76-74 at Augusta National.
And now, this week, he remains in familiar territory – a phrase that can be taken two ways. Metaphorically, he needs the course to give him a boost after making his way to the Masters with high hopes only to miss another cut there. In other words: his form is dire again.
And literally? He’s very fond of this wooded territory. “I like trees,” he said in 2019. “Seriously. I like tree-lined golf courses. I like that it gives you definition. I like that it frames holes for you. I love that.” Can Quail Hollow work its magic on the wounded McIlroy again? Let’s take a look.
Each Way – Viktor Hovland
I was tempted by Jason Day who is the same price he was ahead of the Masters yet is a course winner, up against a weaker field and he spent the first 54 holes at Augusta National in the top 10. Against that, he closed that event with an 80, he hasn’t been seen since and he’s always vulnerable to an injury. Instead Viktor Hovland appeals.
The Norwegian finished third on debut at Quail Hollow in 2021, a week when he ranked sixth for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 13th for Putting. He’s also got the profile of a golfer ready to have a big week. He was second with 18 holes to play at Bay Hill (finishing T10th), third at Sawgrass, third ahead of the final round at Augusta (ending the week seventh) and fifth at halfway at Harbour Town last time out.
Each Way – Joel Dahmen
There’s not much doubt that Joel Dahmen has had a poor year. In fact, in eight individual starts for the year, he has a best finish of T41st. It’s quite a contrast with the start to his season (pre-New Year) when he registered five top 20s in six starts, including three top 10s. I do just wonder, however, if he might have turned a corner? Because although he missed the cut in the RBC Heritage he did card a first-round 66 to lie tied fifth. And then he partnered Denny McCarthy to T11th in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
None of this would matter if he didn’t have a fine course record but he does. He finished T16th on debut in 2019, was T18th last year, and in-between he was second when sharing both the first and third-round lead.
Win – Rory McIlroy
The McIlroy magic can be sprinkled again but he rates a backup option rather than headline pick (it may also be worth considering him in the first-round leader market – he has a host of low scores on the course).
The key is that, beyond just feeling great at the course, he knows why. “It sets up perfectly for me,” he’s said in the past. “With my length and the way I drive it, it’s a big advantage around here.” The afore-mentioned Day once pointed out that McIlroy’s high flight, as well as his length, helps: he can drive the ball over wooded doglegs others have to negotiate. McIlroy further added: “I’ve probably birdied every hole on this golf course so figure there’s no reason why I shouldn’t do it again. It’s a cool feeling.” And also: “There’s a great flow to this golf course. It allows you to get out of your own way and I’ve got great memories here.” He certainly needs to get out of his own way again and three course wins in 10 starts is persuasive.
