THE US Open hasn’t quite been the brute we’ve come to expect in recent years. Back in the 2000s, remember, there was a four year run that took in the fiasco of Shinnecock Hills (where the greens needed to be watered midway through a round because no-one could hold them), a level-par victory for Michael Campbell at Pinehurst, and back-to-back 5-over winning totals for Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera at Winged Foot and Oakmont
Even in 2012 and 2013 Webb Simpson and Justin Rose prevailed with 1-over totals, but there has been just one of those since when Brooks Koepka successfully defended his title at Shinnecock Hills. Twelve months earlier he had claimed victory at Erin Hills with 16-under and while that was something of an outlier, the last six champions were all 6-under or better for the week.
As we head into the weekend at Oakmont in the 125th US Open you’d think there’d be a good chance that the winning total would once again be over-par. True, Sam Burns carded a second round 65 to lead on 3-under 137 but it was one of only seven scores in the red for the day. With its narrow fairways, thick rough, and greens that are as hard to hold as trying to stop a 7-iron on the freeway that runs through the course, Oakmont was getting very, very tough late on Friday.
The weather, however, indicates that the dynamic might switch. There is going to be rain. Persistent rain. The kind of rain that will make the rough utterly hideous, but which will also make the fairways and greens easier to hold.
Burns leads by one from JJ Spaun with Viktor Hovland alone in third another shot in arrears. They are the only men in red for the week. Adam Scott and Ben Griffin share fourth on level-par with Victor Perez and Thriston Lawrence tied sixth on 1-over. Of the big guns, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are 4-over and both looked rattled during and after their second rounds. Rory McIlroy just about confirmed his weekend presence with a birdie at the last and it was just about the only good news of a day that left him looking very disheartened at times.
The numbers
27 of the last 30 US Open champions were tied sixth or better after 36 holes and 19 of them were tied second or better. All of them were within six strokes of the lead. Eight of the nine Oakmont winners were tied seventh or better at this stage and all within seven shots of the lead.
Those trailing will be taking inspiration from a couple of wonderful weekend efforts from Oakmont’s past. In 1973 Johnny Miller was bang in the hunt after 36 holes, hurtled backwards in the third round with a 76 (six back of the lead), but rebounded with what is probably the finest ever US Open final round – an 8-under-par 63 that saw him hit every green in regulation. Ten of his approach shots finished inside 15 feet, five of them within six. Only three other golfers broke 70 that day.
Ten years later Larry Nelson headed into the weekend seven shots back of the lead, thrashed a 65 to get within one of the pace, and a final round 67 clinched the triumph. His 132 total for the final 36 holes set a new record.
Rahm and Scheffler are inside the Nelson zone (just), but the numbers point to those at 2-over and better as being the more realistic winners. Except, except, except: that rain. It’s unlike to be enough to muddy the issue literally but it might do metaphorically.
We have Russell Henley fighting for us on that 2-over mark and Denny McCarthy is just outside the top 20 we tipped him to make. Unfortunately, the second round is not quite complete – Lawrence has to wake early and knock in a three-footer on 18, for example – so the two-balls aren’t out.
Leader Burns finished top 10 in last year’s US Open and was second with 18 holes to play in the Open before closing with an 80. He’s also yet to win outside the Bible Belt (south-east of the USA). This is a great opportunity for him but we can pass at the price. Spaun has a trio of top threes for the year, but has never finished top 20 in a major. Hovland’s short game (a surprise) has been helping out his long game. Adam Scott is pulling a Justin Rose – can he go one better than the Englishman managed at Royal Troon and Augusta National? Myabe but we’ll look elsewhere for the weekend addition.
Since the PGA Championship was moved to May it’s proved to be a decent pointer towards the identity of the US Open champion. Five of the six winners, in fact, finished top eight in the year’s second major (and the exception, Wyndham Clark, won a PGA Tour event on a PGA Championship-hosting course in May). It even worked in 2020 when Covid delayed the schedule. That’s a tick in Griffin’s box (he was eighth in the PGA) and he’s also resembling Clark in being a recent first-time winner who also flirted with victory in the Memorial Tournament.
He’s been driving the ball wonderfully well in recent starts and is doing so again this week (ranking sixth). That’s another tick. A few years ago he gave up tour golf and went to work in an office. He was persuaded to give it a second go and has blossomed. Victory would be a fairytale but there’s plenty in his favour, not least a decent attitude. He’s even chilled about the rain.
“I’ll play in anything unless it’s lightning or tornados,” he said after his second round. “It’s an annoyance but from a swing standpoint I don’t mind it. What’s the projection? Steady all day? Bring it on. I don’t really care. I’m down for whatever.”
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