LAST week’s Dubai Invitational was a new event, but there was an old tune being played by Rory McIlroy whose capacity to make the impossible seem straightforward and the straightforward appear impossible has perhaps never been more in evidence. He’s the golfing equivalent of a precocious chess master who’s completely flummoxed by snakes and ladders.

On no less than three occasions at the Dubai Creek Resort he seemed on the brink of victory and every time he contrived to locate, and go for a ride on, a banana skin. After just 25 holes he led by fully four strokes whereupon he plopped two tee shots in the creek itself and made a quadruple bogey-7. On the back nine of the final round he was three shots shy of eventual winner Tommy Fleetwood with eight holes to play. He closed the gap with a thrilling hat trick of birdies, knocked his tee shot at the par-4 14th to two feet, and then … three-putted. He recovered to lead by one shot walking to the final hole but what happened next? He yanked his tee shot into the creek again.

“First week back out, I think you’re going to expect some of those sloppy mistakes,” he said afterwards. “Unfortunately for me, those mistakes came at the wrong time. But, I’ll reflect on it and learn from today. I just need to tidy up some of the edges and, if I do that, I’ll feel good going into next week.” He added: “I’m really happy for Tommy. It’s great for him and will do his confidence a world of good. Hopefully he kicks on from it.”

If savant-style skills, poor concentration and a nice nature are very consistent with what we expect of the World No. 2, so, too, has been his record in the Dubai Desert Classic in his last 10 visits. In fact, he’s not just 10-for-10 at finishing top 10 in that run, he also usually contends.

In 2009 the tournament witnessed his first professional victory, a wire-to-wire success fuelled by an opening round of 64. On defence, he tied the first round lead before finishing sixth and in 2011 he was the solo first and second round leader before falling out of the reckoning with weekend laps of 75-74 for T10th.

He opened 66-65 to share the halfway lead in 2012 (finishing fifth), was the clear 36-hole leader in 2013 (when ninth) and a second round 64 in 2015 saw him grab a lead he never conceded. He was sixth in 2016, the halfway leader yet again in 2018 when second, finished third in 2022 and defeated Patrick Reed in a final round duel last year.

Eight times in those 10 events he led or shared the lead after rounds one, two or three. In all 10 he was within two strokes of the lead at the end of a pre-final round. In the grand scheme of things, three wins from such consistently good golf is a little on the light side and, yet again, typical McIlroy.

That log book suggests he’ll contend again but we’ll pass at odds of 7/2 and look elsewhere for the three picks.

Thorbjorn Olesen

The top of the market is strong and the prices look about right but there might be value in the Dane who owns both excellent current and course form. He opened 2024 with eighth place last week and he was in the top 10 throughout all four rounds. It was a fourth top 10 in his last five starts and even in the exception – T26th in the DP World Tour Championship – he was top 10 most of the week. He’s an experienced campaigner at the Emirates GC, making the cut in nine of his last 10 starts and ticking four top eight finishes.

Thriston Lawrence

The first 18 months of the South African’s career on the DP World Tour saw his best golf come when he was playing at altitude but he might be ready to excel regularly elsewhere in 2024. He was second last week, carding a superb final round of 64 and it was a fifth finish of T11th or better in a row. He won the BMW International Open in June at Eichenried which is a course, like this one, which demands an aggressive approach on the back nine. Seven players have completed the Eichenried-Emirates double and many more have come close to doing so. Lawrence can join their number.

Francesco Molinari

The Italian’s career has been troubled since he failed to convert a golden opportunity to win the Masters in 2019. In fact, he’s registered just three top six finishes since then but they do all have something in common: they all came in the desert and they were all in January. The latest of them was last week courtesy of a flying final round of 63 and he can build on that this week at a course that has seen him finish top 30 in four of his last five starts.

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