IT'S week two of the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing and what an advertisement for the splendours of California it continues to be – from the back drop of the San Jacinto mountain range last week to the stunning Pacific Ocean coastline this week.
The Farmers Insurance Open is a well-established stop on the circuit and Torrey Pines a much-loved home for it. The North Course is used once pre-cut and it is vulnerable to low scoring. The tougher South Course also hosts one early round and then all of the weekend action.
Expect, and enjoy, many lingering shots of the dramatic scenery. It’s as close to travel as we’re likely to experience for a while and hopefully one of this trio can land us a winner too
Each Way – Marc Leishman (40/1)
In truth, the names at the top of the market are not especially tempting. Rory McIlroy’s recent inability to win, not to mention a journey from the Middle East, is off-putting. Xander Schauffele is a local and yet that hasn’t helped in the past. In point of fact, he has a particularly poor record in the tournament. If popularity earned wins, Tony Finau would have plenty, but it doesn’t. Finishing one shot clear of the field is what achieves that aim and Tony is yet to pick up the knack. Harris English is in magnificent form yet his price is one that makes you twitchy, Viktor Hovland has little course form, whilst Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama are playing like cars whose engines need tuning. Jon Rahm’s love of the course would be most persuasive if only his price were a little juicier.
What we do know is that course form really matters at Torrey Pines. In the 21st century Tiger Woods is a seven-time winner here, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker both own a pairs of victories, Justin Rose, Marc Leishman, Bubba Watson, Ben Crane, Nick Watney and John Daly all performed well ahead of triumphs, and Scott Stalling was second a year after his surprise win. The reasons for this pronounced venue bias? It is perched high on the cliffs, features blustery winds and Poa Annua grass on the greens. Some players cannot fathom one of those factors, many more are left frustrated by both.
First pick is something of a surprise, maybe – the defending champion Marc Leishman. But I get the sense that the Aussie is hungry and I liked the way he finished the Sony Open on his last outing, thrashing a final round 65 that was notable for its controlled aggression. “Happy to get the competitive juices flowing again,” he said afterwards. “Puts me in a good spot going into Torrey Pines and I’m pretty happy with where my game is at to be honest.” He’s finished second twice here and it’s well within him to complete a pair of wins, too.
Marc Leishman, absolute beauty pic.twitter.com/xuXM8bYE7w
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) January 15, 2021
Each Way – Ryan Palmer (45/1)
There’s a touch of the nearly man about Palmer at the moment. Let’s deal with his course form first. Three years ago he returned to the event after an eight year break and spent all week in the top two before losing out in a play-off. A year later he was third at halfway before finishing T13th. Then last year he led by two after 36 holes and was still one shot off the lead before a final round 77 derailed his chances. Form-wise he ended 2020 with an impressive fourth at the Zozo Championship and then repeated that result in his 2021 opener at the Tournament of Champions, heading into the final lap tied for the lead. After a slow start to the Sony Open he returned to the excellent form with two laps of 65. The pessimist would say that he keeps banging his head on the door. I, however, am an optimist, in the sense that all that experience might provide him with the wherewithal to work out how to open it.
Outsider – Brandt Snedeker (200/1)
If there is a week when you can put course form ahead of all other considerations it is this week. And if there is one player you can back here on that basis it is Brandt Snedeker because the 40-year-old adores Torrey Pines so much that in 15 visits there he has landed nine top tens, a tally which includes two wins, two seconds and two thirds. He arrives there this week off the back of three consecutive missed cuts, but I find it hard to believe that he’s an entirely busted flush at this level and a view of the Pacific Ocean has done wonders for him time and time again in the past (he’s a two-time winner at Pebble Beach as well as here). Had he been priced something like 50/1 he’d have been one to swerve, but at this price I’m more than happy to chance my arm.
