IT’S been some year and we’re sort of near the end of it. Why “sort of”? Well, it’s because no detail is ever straightforward in the world of golf. This is a sport, after all, where the Alps Tour can play a tournament in Egypt that is called the Little Venice Open. With such geographical pandemonium it is not entirely surprising that the calendar is equally bewildering. There was, after all, a Korn Ferry Tour event called the Christmas in October Classic, a title preposterous enough even before you discover that it took place in August.

So it is that the PGA Tour’s 2022 ended in the summer and 2023 is already two months old, while the DP World Tour’s 2022, which began in 2021, is about to end this week.

Truly, the business of trying to fathom where you are and what day it is remains one of golf’s greatest unnecessary mysteries.

The question of who will win this week is, in many ways, less baffling. Back in 2009 Lee Westwood’s caddie Billy Foster took his man aside during the pre-tournament barbecue and urged him to assert his class and authority on the field. He did precisely that and ever since high quality winners have been the norm.

Rory McIlroy is a two-time winner, as are Henrik Stenson, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm while Collin Morikawa is the defending champion and Danny Willett was a major champion. The latter was a surprise winner despite that heritage and other outliers were Robert Karlsson and Alvaro Quiros, both Middle East specialists in the form of their lives and both winners in the first three renewals. Put simply, the last 10 winners have a major championship on their CV.

Admittedly two of them won this event before rubber-stamping their elite-level qualifications (Stenson and Fitzpatrick), but it’s a key consideration. This is a limited field containing the best performers of the year, tested by a big layout (the Earth Course at Jumeirah can be stretched to 7,706 yards). Quality prevails.

Each Way – Shane Lowry at 12/1

If we take major championship-winning class as a starting point for the first pick it leaves a short list of favourite Rory McIlroy, second favourite Jon Rahm, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry. If we extended the list to include potential major winners then Viktor Hovland and Tommy Fleetwood would be the most obvious additions.

Two other factors are worthy of note. The first is that the majority of Earth Course winners had demonstrated a liking for the track beforehand: 10 of the 13 had already finished top 10, the other three were debutants. Most also had fine form on other desert courses, in the Middle East for the most part but on U.S. desert tracks if not. And a final point is that winners of the Portugal Masters at Dom Pedro have a fine record in this tournament (not a desert course but very much like one in many respects).

Irishman Shane Lowry is a nice fit for all these considerations. He was the 2019 Open champion and has won both the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and the Portugal Masters. He’s also got a fine Earth Course record. He was eighth on debut in this event in 2011, the first round leader when fifth in 2014, second in 2017, and the halfway leader when ninth last year.

Each Way – Jordan Smith at 25/1

Relentless with his long game, Englishman Jordan Smith had planned to work on his putting during the close season but lost patience ahead of the Portugal Masters. He not only took hold of a new putter, he also employed a new grip. A winner of the European Open in 2017, he’d added another seven top-three finishes to his record book in the meantime without lifting another trophy.

But the changes worked wonders in Portugal. He thrashed two rounds of 62 to grab the 54-hole lead and then completed a three-shot victory with a Sunday 63. Back in 2018 he spent the first 54-holes of this tournament in the top three and, emboldened by his fine form, he can get involved again. It helps that he likes this part of the world – he has top 12 finishes at five different Middle Eastern courses, including a win at Al Hamra on the second tier.

First Round Leader – Kurt Kitayama at 33/1

The early pacesetters in this event tend to have recent experience of going low and also good Middle Eastern vibes. A man who fits that bill is the American Kurt Kitayama whose DP World Tour action has been minimal this season owing to his better form on the PGA Tour. He’s landed three top-three 2022 finishes on the latter, the most recent of them in the CJ Cup when he opened 66-65 to share the 36-hole lead. In his five starts this side of the Atlantic he’s added another top three, seventh in his last start and he also got off to a flier in the Open.

His two wins on the DP World Tour have come on a desert course in Oman and a resort track in Mauritius. While in both 2020 and 2021 he thrashed low scores in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He can go low again in round one.