IT'S probably fair to say that post-lockdown Dustin Johnson has emerged as a poster boy for the bewildering vagaries of golfing form. In June he thrashed an imperious 61 on his way to winning the Travelers Championship, so what came next? A pair of 80s and a 78 in his next three laps.
His reaction to that? Twelve straight scores of sub-70 which have allowed him to record T12th, second and then a stunning 30-under-par total at last week’s The Northern Trust. It goes without saying that such an astonishing effort was more than good enough for the win.
Can he maintain those standard at the BMW Championship? He’s the tournament favourite, but I’m looking elsewhere with the picks.
Winner – Bryson DeChambeau 14/1
Back in 2015 young DeChambeau, then approximately 27% of his current weight, claimed triumph in the U.S. Amateur Championship which was played at this week’s host course – Olympic Fields Country Club in Chicago. The then-21-year-old qualified T23rd in the 36-hole strokeplay before dismantling the hopes of everyone who trod in his path during the matchplay. He won 8&6, 5&4, 3&2, 3&2, 4&3 and finally 7&6 in the final with Maverick McNealy, Paul Dunne and Sean Crocker among those flattened in his path. He clearly enjoyed the test and if there is anything missing in that record it is extensive experience of the 17th and 18th holes of the North Course because he needed to play them just twice in eight circuits.
Rarely afraid of self-appreciation, he gushed soon after lifting the trophy: “I said to myself, put the pedal to the metal, hit shots close, let’s play Bryson golf and that’s what I did.” He also revealed that his course experience ran deeper than that one long week: “The course is incredible. I played (events) here in my freshman and sophomore year. That actually helped me quite bit because I was familiar with the shapes of holes and the green contours.” He missed the cut last week (71-71), but that doesn’t overly concern me. He was a winner in Detroit this summer, fourth in the PGA Championship and this week last year followed a missed cut with back-to-back wins.
Get ready for the 2020 BMW Championship in Chicago. Next week, the top 70 players of the @PGATOUR season will fight for only 30 spots in the final of the #FedExCup Playoffs.@OFCCClubhouse @BMWchamps #drivenbypassion #bmwgolfsport #bmwchamps pic.twitter.com/mY75spTlPB
— BMW Golfsport (@bmwgolfsport) August 21, 2020
Each Way – Collin Morikawa 25/1
When Olympia Fields hosted the U.S. Open in 2003 we were in the late days of the steady eddy domination of that event. Jim Furyk was crowned champion, Stephen Leaney finished second, Kenny Perry third and Nick Price contended. The first three were proficient at finding plenty of greens from all the fairways they landed (and Price found more of the latter than anyone in the field). Very soon, the American national championship would become dominated by bomb and chop merchants, and it would be surprising if none of their equivalent became involved this week, but I like the idea of having one man in the staking plan whose strategy aligns somewhat to the Furyk method.
Like DeChambeau, Morikawa had last weekend off, but he also has previous when it comes to using such indignities as a springboard. Indeed, when his week was cut short at the Travelers Championship in June he responded with victory at Muirfield Village. He’ll have no fears taking on a major championship quality test, either, because the last time he played one of those, earlier this month, he closed the week out with rounds of 65-64 for a top level breakthrough of undisputed class. A masterly plotter of a ball from tee to green he ranks third for that particular Strokes Gained category, whilst his fairways and greens numbers have been strong since the return from lockdown.
Each Way – Cameron Champ 100/1
Whilst DeChambeau has turned to calories and dumb-bells in order to hit the ball vast distances, 25-year-old Champ utilises long limbs and fast-twitch muscles. As a consequence he ranks second for Driving Distance this year and also for Strokes Gained Off the Tee. With his A game, however, he is far from one-dimensional, frequently ranking high in the field for hitting greens in regulation, as he has done recently at Colonial, Detroit and Harding Park in the PGA Championship.
In that latter effort he carded 71-64-67 to head into the final round in second place. It was his first sniff at contending in a major so his final day 70 (for T10th) was understandable enough and I suspect the experience will do him good. I also like that, in addition to collecting two PGA Tour wins quickly in his career, he’s often played major championship venues very well: T32nd in his U.S. Open as an amateur, hitting lots of greens in his PGA Championship debut and contending at Torrey Pines earlier this year (again finding lots of greens). He can give us a run for our money at a big price.
