BEFORE we dig down into the teams and their respective form we must first acknowledge a third wheel in this marriage of inconvenience that is the North London Derby, that of the fixture itself.
It is a fixture that is distinct from all others, possessing an abundance of trends and traits that makes it different even from other local dust-ups.
For all that Martin Odegaard’s likely absence, coupled with Declan Rice’s suspension, is a factor, and for all that Arsenal’s recent dominance of this match-up is a consideration, it would be folly to ignore these historical signposts as they reveal so much.
For starters, no top-flight fixture in the Premier League era has thrown up more games where both teams have scored, with 67.1% of their previous clashes seeing both sides get on the score-sheet. Sometimes this has emphatically been the case with 19% of their Premier League encounters producing four-plus goals.
This avalanche of goals partly explains another phenomenon, that concerns the first team to score so often failing to win out. That has happened 29 times since 1992 and again no other fixture can compete with that number.
It brings to mind several thrilling comebacks, on occasion from two goals down, and leads us to an irrefutable truth. That this is a meeting between rowing neighbours that habitually has a sting in its tail.
Then there’s the high volume of penalties to take on board. This fixture has had the most spot-kicks awarded in Premier League history, a chunky 26, and even if we acknowledge that Arsenal and Spurs have been top-flight mainstays – so of course they’re going to be right up there – it’s still an impressive figure. Indeed, 12.9% of the goals scored in this fixture in the Premier League era have come from the spot while four of the last five meetings have featured a penno.
Last but by no means least, we have a high tally of draws with 35.9% of their league encounters ending all-square, but perhaps this one should be last and should be least because it appears to be a trend on the wane.
Only one of their last nine meetings have ended honours even largely because in recent seasons the Gunners have been in the ascendancy, challenging for the title while Spurs focus on finishing top four.
This disparity of interests has resulted in Mikel Arteta’s men losing only one derby dispute since the back-end of 2020.
And pertinently that narrative persists, even if we are only three games deep into 2024/25.
Arsenal began this campaign as they intend to go on, beating Wolves and Aston Villa, both to nil, and though it’s undeniable that they lost their heads somewhat in light of Rice’s dismissal at home to Brighton – a grievance the fan-base still bemoan on social media nearly a fortnight on – even those perceived dropped points can be viewed with a positive slant.
Despite being a crucial man short for fifty minutes, the hosts racked up five big chances all told and forced the Seagulls keeper into making six saves. There was also resilience on display, especially from a back-line that has been breached only ten times in 2024. That’s a goal conceded every 189 minutes.
As for individuals, Kai Havertz comes to the fore with three goal involvements in three already this term. He concluded last season with 15 goal involvements in 14 yet people still insist Arsenal’s lack of a recognized centre-forward will ultimately cost them.
And let’s not forget that Bukayo Saka scored in both derbies in 2023/24. The England flyer has assisted in each of his three outings to date.
Does talking up this pair suggest that the Gunners are fancied to win a third consecutive away trip to Spurs? It does not, not with Rice missing, integral as he is, and not with Odegaard very likely unavailable, the Norwegian routinely his side’s orchestrator-in-chief.
These fundamental losses will make Arteta’s team selection a very interesting one at the weekend, particularly as Mikel Merino is also out, the Spaniard otherwise in line to make his debut.
Speaking of debuts, there is also the introduction of new signing Raheem Sterling to consider, though possibly from the bench.
What these absences do is present Spurs with an opportunity on Sunday to gain the upper hand in midfield, an area of the pitch that more times than not ultimately decides a derby’s outcome. It’s fortunate therefore for Ange Postecoglou that James Maddison and Yves Bissouma have statistically been Tottenham’s second and third best performers to this juncture, each of them a smidgeon behind Son Heung-min.
Naturally it’s Maddison who will be relied upon from the two to create, his 2.3 key passes per 90 helping to unlock a stubborn Leicester rearguard and put a gloss on a comprehensive victory over Everton.
The 27-year-old schemer has also been a threat when drifting out wide with two completed crosses per game.
Elsewhere, it’s vital that Spurs get Dominic Solanke back in the reckoning, their summer signing rated at 50/50 to be passed fit. On his debut, and only appearance so far, the forward accrued three shots on target but Solanke is infinitely more than a finisher. He promises to give Spurs better shape, better structure.
Then there’s Son Heung-min, the firework that every teams needs and has, but so few possess one of his immense quality. The Korean has scored seven in his last eight starts vs Arsenal, routinely a problem they cannot contain. Intriguingly, eight of his last ten league goals have been converted after the break.
So it’s the hosts who are tipped to prevail in the 196th North London Derby but that is not said with any degree of certainty. That’s because there is no certainty when this pair meet.
Instead then let’s return to the safer ground of the top of the page and those trends and traits. In fact, let’s merge them with a more recent detail.
Tottenham currently lead the way for corners won in 2024/25, their 37 dwarfing everyone else, with the next highest being Manchester City on 24.
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