Ste Tudor: Man City v Liverpool betting tips: Drama but all-too-few fireworks as City edge it

MANCHESTER City have more reasons than most to rue the timing of this international break.

Going into it, Pep Guardiola’s side were unbeaten in ten and firing on every cylinder having scored 13 in their last two games. Erling Haaland was responsible for eight of them and if the notion that City are a better side minus their Norwegian had a face it would be that of RB Leipzig’s goalkeeper as he retrieved the ball from his net for the seventh time.

All told, the Blues were in the best shape of their season to date. Everything was clicking and City were beginning to look formidable fighting on three fronts.

Fast forward to the here and now however and Haaland is a serious doubt and Phil Foden is unavailable, the latter showing clear signs of a renaissance in recent weeks, and even if the international hiatus cannot be blamed for either absence it absolutely puts some form of punctuation after their notable improvement. This Saturday will reveal if it’s a comma or full stop.

Liverpool by comparison were presumably quite grateful of a chance to reset, signing off with two defeats, but while there is a lot to get into concerning their recent results what trumps all that is what lies ahead for a side still firmly in the top four chase. After an extremely testing trip to the Etihad, the Reds travel to Stamford Bridge midweek then host runaway leaders Arsenal.

In the space of eight days, Liverpool’s season will likely be defined, one way or the other.

Which frankly will be a blessing because making sense of them this term is like trying to decipher a 3am conversation in a nightclub. This, after all, is a team that pulverised Manchester United 7-0 before meekly succumbing to Bournemouth, all inside a week, and such extremes have become commonplace in 2022/23 from a creation that sometimes remembers who they are, and what they’re capable of, then immediately goes blank.

Mo Salah with a Goal and Assist for Egypt within 25 minutes. That takes his tally up to 40 G/A for the season⚽️🅰️

Salah’s “worst season” are numbers players could only dream of…⭐️ pic.twitter.com/szqWeqznxh

— GakpoFC (@GakpoFC) March 28, 2023

What we know for sure is that Mo Salah is rediscovering his best self, boasting seven goal involvements in his last six league outings and this is especially pertinent because the Egyptian has a prolific record against City, scoring or assisting 15 times in 18 meetings. A small caveat is needed here though in that only four of them came at the Etihad.

At the back meanwhile, a defective defence that has been the subject of countless debates appear to be getting their act together, in the league at least, when not facing the might of Madrid. In their last six domestic showings Liverpool have been breached just the once. In the six prior to that they conceded 11.

If that suggests a Foden-less, possibly Haaland-less City may struggle to break down their arch foes their head-to-head record tells a different story, with the Blues only failing to score once in their last 12 encounters. Moreover, this is a fixture that tends to produce goals, with 3.8 per 90 in that timespan but before we anticipate a classic for the ages we must also factor in the kick-off time, with Saturday lunchtime affairs typically disappointing and often somewhat flat.

Take Arsenal’s recent six-goal thriller at Villa Park out of the equation and the last 10 games heralding in the weekend have eked out a measly 1.5 goals per game and here again we must acknowledge the international break with players returning from all corners of the globe, out of their Premier League rhythm, some carrying knocks and strains.

All things considered, don’t rule out a slow, cautious first-half.

One such player not entirely fit is Darwin Nunez whose ankle problem puts him at 50/50 to start though Cody Gakpo is believed to have recovered from a bout of food poisoning picked up on international duty. Luis Diaz meanwhile may feature for the first time since October even if most likely from the bench.

As for City, should they indeed be deprived of a phenomenon who has fired 42 goals in 37 appearances this season their likeliest front three will consist of Grealish, Alvarez and Mahrez and though each have consistently impressed we should expect an inevitable drop-off in potency. Combined this trio have converted in the league every 256 minutes in 2022/23. Single-handedly, Haaland has scored every 75 minutes. Even Mo Salah enduring a patchy campaign has managed a strike every 210 minutes.

All of which points to a low-scoring encounter which would be an enormous shame because when these two teams really go at each other the fireworks are sensational.

For this, blame the schedulers for arranging such a marquee match-up for Saturday lunchtime, straight after a fortnight’s break. Because what could have been a riot, may prove to be chess-like if, as ever, an engrossing watch.