IT’S time to brace ourselves once again for an avalanche of hypocrisy as television networks wax lyrical about the FA Cup, all the while dangerously devaluing it by spreading the games over five days.
Between Sheffield United’s hosting of Cardiff on Thursday and Millwall’s local dust-up with Dagenham on Monday a world darts champion could be born, raised and claim his crown.
It’s nothing less than galling seeing them indulge in syrupy nostalgia, despite being responsible for the competition’s slow demise. It’s akin to committing euthanasia while showing the victim’s life highlights on a big screen, set to stirring music.
Still, rant quickly over, because there is too much to get through, and too many fascinating clashes that lie in wait, not least Tamworth taking on Spurs at the Lamb Ground, Staffordshire.
With 96 league places separating the teams, and Tottenham in decidedly dodgy form, this is a quintessential giant-killing in the making for romantics to romance about, that is until Brennan Johnson puts the visitors ahead a few minutes in.
Put sentiment to one side because for all of Spurs’ injury woes the disparity in quality is vast here. Indeed, think back to the merciless thrashing of Marine a few years ago and the price boost offered up for Ange Postecoglou’s side to be ahead at the break, win the match and for over 4.5 goals in the match becomes mighty tempting.
Elsewhere, Salford travel the short distance to the Etihad while Accrington Stanley head to Anfield for a game that really should be sponsored by the Milk Marketing Board but though both fixtures intrigue value is hard to find.
Instead then, perhaps more competitive fare should be prioritized, ideally still featuring teams in different divisions.
Take Norwich to score against Brighton for example.
The Canaries may be mid-table in the Championship but their home form has largely been excellent in 2024/25, losing just two from 13. Furthermore, having now fully acclimatized to Johannes Hoff Thorup’s ways, and with Borja Sainz consistently superb down the left, they are finding goals easy to come by at Carrow Road, averaging 2.3 per 90 all season long.
Draw specialists Brighton meanwhile have kept just one clean sheet on their travels this term. Moreover, captain Lewis Dunk is injured and it would not enormously surprise if full-backs Veltman and Estupinan are rested.
Heading further south we find a struggling Derby County coming up against a Leyton Orient who are unbeaten in eight in League One. This one smacks of a mini-upset and there is plenty of merit in simply backing the Os to win out at 2/1.
Better value however lies in backing the hosts to keep a shut-out, something they have done 10 times in their last 13 league outings.
Orient may not be especially prolific up front but Richie Wellens has constructed a watertight rearguard at Brisbane Road, one that has them knocking on the door of the play-offs. As for the Rams, their leading goal-scorer is Jerry Yates on six, which speaks volumes.
Go for over 0.5 goals Norwich and under 0.5 goals Derby at 21/5
Next up, given their starkly contrasting form, Nottingham Forest have to be strongly fancied to prevail over Luton this weekend but more pertinently they should be backed to get the job done early.
No team have gone behind more than the Hatters this season across all four divisions and the problem is only getting worse courtesy of five defeats in their last six. It’s a woeful run that has prompted all manner of speculation about Rob Edwards’ job security and frankly, a trip to high-flying Forest is the last thing he, and his under-performing side, need right now.
As for the Tricky Trees, they have converted inside half an hour in four of their last six Premier League showings.
Back Forest to be ahead at the break at 10/11
A few miles east, Preston should be fancied to accumulate a high volume of cards as they take on Charlton at Deepdale. The Lilywhites have picked up 71 yellows this season, 11 more than the second worst offenders in the Championship, Blackburn. Their 13.7 fouls per 90 is also a league low.
Then there’s Oxford’s high shot-count to consider, 14.8 per game. The U’s are expected to comfortably dispense with Exeter who have won only one in six at home. It naturally follows that the visitor’s shot ratio will remain impressive going into next week.
Speaking of shots, Yoane Wissa accrued a remarkable five on target last Saturday away to Southampton. Should the red-hot striker not be rested against Plymouth – and he hasn’t been for previous third round commitments – it’s fair to anticipate another healthy return as Brentford seek to extend on their outstanding home form.
Only Stoke have faced more shots in the Championship than the Pilgrims this term.
Back Wissa over 2.5 shots on target v Plymouth at 12/5
Lastly we head to the Emirates, for the third round’s marquee clash, one that has never taken place before at this stage of the competition.
Arsenal versus Manchester United. A match-up so blockbuster neither manager will dare rest a single player.
The Reds have reached the fourth round for ten years running but that streak could end in North London, for all that Ruben Amorim’s men showed surprising fortitude last week on Merseyside.
Reliably porous at the back, and always just a defensive mishap away from another crisis, United have conceded 2+ goals in six of their last seven in the league while this fixture’s head-to-head record shows five wins for Arsenal and a draw on home soil since Mikel Arteta took charge.
Moreover, the Gunners have racked up 83 shots (24 on target) in their last five encounters with their northern foe. In their most recent clash, Arsenal won 13 corners to United’ s none.
It won’t be horribly one-sided. The spirit shown at Anfield, and Arsenal’s stumble mid-week against Newcastle tells us that.
A bet builder based around a home victory however makes much more sense than any other option.
Go for Arsenal over 1.5 goals, Arsenal over 5.5 shots on target and Arsenal over 6.5 corners at 21/4
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