SOMETHING delightfully odd happens when the FA Cup gets to the last eight stage. Goals start to rain in.
That’s certainly been the case across the last three years, with a cluster of engrossing quarter-finals producing 4.2 goals per 90. Compare that to the perfectly ordinary 2.6 goals per 90 the previous round offered up this season and the variance demands attention.
The same goes for draws. In the fifth round, held in early March, exactly half of the fixtures ended honours even. But on only four occasions in the last 36 quarter-finals has a game needed extra time.
There hasn’t been a 0-0 for a full decade
Trying to explain why this stage of the competition is such a consistently exciting outlier leads us to conjecture. Perhaps it’s a sweet spot between it mattering a great deal – thereby encouraging managers to deploy their strongest XI who give it their absolute all – and not mattering so much as to dread the possibility of devastating defeat.
That latter concern tends to kick in at Wembley in the semis, inhibiting teams and making tight, tense low-scoring affairs the norm.
Acknowledging all this inevitably takes us to the over/under markets, where a bet builder featuring three of this weekend’s games entices. We will get to the fourth in due course.
If the likelihood of goals gets us in the cup spirit this Saturday and Sunday, a romantic element to the games ahead also captivates.
Of the eight teams remaining, only Manchester City have lifted the cup in the last 66 years, with half of them having never won it, and it that’s not enough to evoke all manner of uplifting cliches then John Motson’s sheepskin coat was worn in vain.
Indeed, it is one of the clubs that have never before enjoyed an open-top bus parade who host City at the weekend, having already beaten them on home soil this term.
That victory, at the Vitality Stadium back in November, saw Bournemouth rack up six big chances from 36% possession and it occurred at the perfect time for a giant-slaying. The Blues were at the very beginning of a prolonged and remarkable slump into mediocrity while Andoni Iraola’s men were still buzzing from downing Arsenal a fortnight before.
Defeating both title contenders propelled Bournemouth into a sustained period of excellent form as Iraola’s ways were fully assimilated and executed for arguably the first time since his arrival, and though results have disappointed of late there are still elements to that rollicking win last autumn that remain relevant.
With Ake, Akanji, Stones and Gvardiol all out, City’s defensive issues are still acute – they can be ‘got at’ – and that puts Antoine Semenyo in the frame, the winger scoring and accruing two shots on target when last they met.
All told, Semenyo has taken on 14 shots in the FA Cup this season, a figure only topped by one other player.
That’s not to say, of course, that City’s huge threat should be downplayed, especially not with their cup pedigree. They last lost outside of the semi-finals in 2018.
Bournemouth vs City concludes the weekend’s cup action while Fulham vs Crystal Palace kicks it off and what a difficult one this is to call.
Exemplifying this, both of their league meetings in 2024/25 ended with a 2-0 away win and with both teams in decent shape it is actually this scoreline that leads us to a bet, one that particularly appeals given that each side is in possession of in-form forwards. Rodrigo Muniz has fired three in six in the league and three in three in the cup. Jean-Philippe Mateta meanwhile has converted eight in his last eight league outings. The French striker is expected to play with a mask at Craven Cottage, after sustaining a serious head injury in the previous round.
But back to the scoreline. Crystal Palace have won each of their last five away games 2-0. As for Fulham they have scored twice in 10 of their last 14 in the league. Let’s therefore break the habit of a lifetime and go for an exact result here, especially as the odds are so tempting.
A few hours later all attention turns to the south coast where Brighton face an opponent who walloped them 7-0 seven weeks ago, a comprehensive beating that revealed every one of the Seagulls’ weaknesses while leaving Jack Hinshelwood horribly isolated in the middle of the park.
It is exceedingly unlikely that Fabian Hurzeler will go with the same skewed set-up again and furthermore Chris Wood is a serious doubt for Nottingham Forest, the striker bagging a hat-trick that day.
Still, Morgan Gibbs-White will feature, who was superb in the demolition, winning eight duels and always positive and impactful when possession was gained. Anthony Elanga too was brilliant, posting three key passes, and perhaps it’s pertinent that he scored twice before the international break.
Could history repeat itself then? Not a chance, not with Brighton now fully mended after stringing four league wins together before holding Man City at the Etihad.
From their plethora of attacking options it is Joao Pedro who stands out, with five goal involvements in his last five appearances.
Finally, on Sunday lunchtime we have Preston vs Aston Villa to consider, and this one feels pretty straightforward.
The Lilywhites may be mid-table in the Championship and draw far too many of their games, but they are a tough nut to crack at Deepdale, unbeaten in their last 15 fixtures there and conceding only nine times in the process.
Brad Potts is an important player for them down their right, ensuring their 5-3-2 set-up is never overly defensive. Emil Riis Jacobsen meanwhile, has scored 25.6% of Preston’s league goals.
Yet Villa have to be fancied, with Marco Asensio resplendent and Marcus Rashford flying and firmly back in the England conversation.
It will take Unai Emery’s men time to break down a stubborn Preston rearguard, but that’s okay, they have form for that. Twenty-three of their last 29 goals scored in 2025 have come after the break.
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