SEVENTY-FIVE days after Manchester City held aloft yet another Premier League title, and Everton survived by the skin of their teeth, we go again. A brand new top-flight campaign, full of hope and promise, and no doubt lots of self-delusion regarding what our team is capable of achieving.
Can Brighton secure a fabled top four spot? Can Luton upset the odds and stay up?
The opening weekend of the 2023/24 Premier League season will offer up clues galore.
Burnley v Manchester City
We know exactly what to expect from City and it would astound if they disappointed. Erling Haaland will be Erling Haaland. Kevin De Bruyne will be Kevin De Bruyne, a player who has assisted three times and scored once in previous opening weekends for the Blues.
Pep Guardiola’s treble-winners will seek to control all aspects of the game, in doing so quietening a raucous Turf Moor.
How successful they are in this aim largely depends on how well the Clarets transfer their sublime Championship showings to the big stage. Burnley averaged 13.6 shots per game last season and will definitely carve out chances.
We can also anticipate a relatively high card count despite both sides being fairly angelic in this regard, as the PGMOL seek to make a series of statements for the forthcoming season. This particularly applies to time wasting.
Go for over 6.5 total shots for Burnley and over 4.5 cards at 8/5
Arsenal v Nottingham Forest
Still on a high from their Wembley success, the Gunners entertain a Forest side that picked up a pitiful eight points on their travels last season and though opening weekends can occasionally throw up shock results it feels so unlikely here.
Stationed up front against Manchester City, to compensate for Gabby Jesus’ absence, Kai Havertz may have flattered to deceive but he tested Ortega in nets twice-over and the German should feature prominently.
Back Havertz to have over 1.5 shots on target at 6/4
Bournemouth v West Ham
The Cherries could horribly crash and burn under new boss Andoni Iraola or become the Premier League’s surprise package. At this juncture it’s a coin-flip.
What matters most right now is to what extent the players are upping their fitness levels so they can enact the Spaniard’s ferocious pressing mandate over 90-plus minutes, and by Iraola’s own admission they’re close, but not there yet.
All of which suggests Bournemouth may come flying out of the blocks before fading late-on, and this narrative is only strengthened when it’s acknowledged that David Moyes’ side have conceded inside 20 minutes in 48% of their league fixtures in 2023.
Bournemouth to score over 0.5 goals in the first half is well-priced at Evens
Brighton v Luton
The time for celebration, plaudits and romanticism is over. Now comes the harsh reality check of an extremely tough trip to the Amex for the Hatters.
Luton admittedly boast a fine away record, last losing on the road way back in December but that of course was in the Championship. The last promoted side to win away on the opening day was Huddersfield six years ago.
The high-flying Seagulls have to be strongly fancied after last season’s remarkable quantum leap. No side took on more shots in the Premier League and after some possible resistance Mitoma and co will find a way.
Everton v Fulham
Joao Palhinha’s shoulder injury is an immediate concern for the Cottagers. Last season the Portuguese midfielder missed just three league games, with Fulham losing all of them, conceding ten times into the bargain.
With Tom Cairney also a serious doubt, Everton’s muscular engine-room can take control of proceedings though don’t anticipate much end product. Only Wolves scored fewer goals than the Toffees last term and their purchase of a teenage Youssef Chermiti isn’t going to dramatically change that. Once again, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is absent.
Under 2.5 goals is the way to go at 17/20
Sheffield United v Crystal Palace
With Ndiaye, McAtee, Doyle and Berge all gone it’s hard to see where the Blades will find a cutting edge, and though it’s reasonable to expect plenty of graft from Paul Heckingbottom’s men there will be very little craft.
Palace will also soon face a shortfall in creativity if rumours are true of Michael Olise’s imminent departure but they still have Eberechi Eze, a player who pitched in with seven goal involvements in his last nine outings in 2022/23.
All told, the Eagles have enough here to get their new campaign off to a winning start.
A bet builder backing under 3.5 shots on target for the hosts and no to BTTS is a shout at 6/4
Newcastle v Aston Villa
A friendly between these sides in Philadelphia two weeks ago produced an entertaining 3-3 draw and further goals can be expected in the North-East this Saturday.
Widely tipped to have an outstanding campaign, Villa only failed to score twice in 27 games under Unai Emery last term and after recruiting well over the summer they will be firmly eyeing up a top six place.
Newcastle meanwhile have enjoyed an unbeaten pre-season and are in decent shape.
It’s a tricky one to call so let’s focus on an individual and Newcastle’s propensity to rack up a high corner count.
Harvey Barnes scored twice against Villarreal last Sunday and notched 13 for Leicester last term. A dream debut beckons.
Back Barnes to score anytime and Newcastle to win over 6.5 corners at 4/1
Brentford v Tottenham
Spurs will be significantly more proactive and adventurous under Ange Postecoglou and that should be in evidence from the off even if the Gtech Community Stadium is a tough place to kickstart a new era.
The Bees boasted a decent home record last term, picking up 37 points from a possible 57.
Given how prolific he has been pre-season it is tempting to go with Harry Kane scoring, just like he did twice last year against Brentford. Accelerating rumours about an imminent switch to Bayern though makes this a risk.
Instead back both teams to score. Brentford only failed to find the target twice at home last season while Spurs will likely be on the front foot throughout.
Chelsea v Liverpool
The opening weekend’s marquee match-up promises much not least the beginning of a new era for the Blues under Mauricio Pochettino.
The last four times these sides have met, however, it has finished goalless. Indeed, there hasn’t been a goal in this fixture for nearly seven hours.
As a counter-balance, there hasn’t been a 0-0 on the opening day of the season since 2019.
If previous anticlimaxes are a factor it should not detract from the fact that Liverpool last lost at the Bridge five years ago which brings us, in a roundabout fashion, to the terrific pre-season form of Diogo Jota, the Portuguese winger scoring four in five.
Over 0.5 shots on target for Diogo Jota entices at 10/13
Manchester United v Wolves
United have experienced a mixed pre-season, one that included new signing Andre Onana being lobbed from the halfway line, but the Reds’ imperious home form last season must be acknowledged, as too the widespread belief that Wolves are in for a stinker of a campaign.
Marcus Rashford scored 13 of his 17 league goals last term at Old Trafford. He has also notched twice in his last three outings against Monday’s opponents.
