THERE are 11 points between Champions elect Liverpool and 2^nd place Arsenal in the Premier League with just seven games to go, while the bottom three are all but doomed to return to the Championship at the first time of asking, with 17^th placed Wolves sitting 12 points above the relegation zone.

Therefore, the most intriguing storyline between now and the end of the season is the matter of who fills the spots for European qualification and importantly (and somewhat sadly with football these days), which competition teams get into could have a significant financial impact given vastly different prize money on offer between the UEFA Champions, Europa and Conference League. For example, this season, 74.4% (£2.14 bn) of the £2.9 billion allocated to all three competitions went to the Champions League (17%, £489 million to the Europa League and 8.6%, £246 million to the Conference League participants).

Now, the Premier League are officially guaranteed five places in the UEFA Champions League next season due the performance by the English sides in 2024-25. The top two sides (Liverpool and Arsenal) are assured of Champions League qualification while Nottingham Forest, sitting in third place after their brilliant season to date, are given the next best chance of a top 5 finish by the Opta predictor – a 41% chance of finishing third and an 87% chance of finishing in the top 5.

The Tricky Trees are on 57 points, with a four-point gap to Chelsea and Newcastle on 53 and a further point to Man City who currently sit in 6^th place. This points buffer, plus one of the most favourable run-ins in terms of fixtures (the only side currently in the top half they’re yet to play are Chelsea on the final day) should see them play in Europe’s elite competition for the first time since 1980-81.

Chelsea, while currently in 4^th spot, have just a 44% chance of making the top 5, with Newcastle (70%) and Man City (74%) both given a much higher percentage by the Opta predictor. One factor that perhaps gives the Blues less chance is that they’re still in the Conference League and looking (expected to) win the competition, whereas both Newcastle and Man City are not in Europe, while the Magpies also have a game in hand in the league that will be played in the coming week.

Chelsea’s final four games in the Premier League include both Liverpool and Man Utd at home and Newcastle and Nottingham Forest away which, combined with playing Thursday nights and not being in the best of form over the last few months, give them an uphill task to get into Champions League for next season.

Speaking of form, it is interesting to note just how close the teams vying for European competition are if we look at a table of their last 10 league games:

The teams between 3^rd and 8^th in the table are within 3 points of each other across their last 10 games, with Fulham and Newcastle just ahead of the others. This would suggest an immensely tight battle which is likely to go right to the wire for those elite European spots. Four of these six sides will play against each other on the final day (Forest v Chelsea, Fulham v Man City), while Aston Villa will visit Old Trafford to play Man Utd – the team they’ve lost more Premier League away games against (22) than any other and have lost nine of their last 11 there in the competition (W1 D1).

Let the drama commence!

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