NOTTINGHAM Forest, Bournemouth, Brighton and Fulham are all well placed to make a final push for European qualification heading into the final stretch of the Premier League season, as well as making up half of the quarter-finalists in this season’s FA Cup, in which the winner earns a direct place to the UEFA Europa League.

That is the prize each of those teams is after, alongside the usual suspects such as Chelsea, Newcastle and Manchester City – but how does the reward of an increased number of fixtures and extra travel impact Premier League teams?

The seven English teams competing in Europe this season (Liverpool, Man City, Spurs, Man Utd, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Chelsea) have each already played 40 or more games in total this season, meaning they will all eclipse 50 matches by the end of the season.

That strain has been felt most by Aston Villa, who have won only one of their eight Premier League games this season following a mid-week European match (D3 L4). The Villans had an impressive UEFA Champions League league phase campaign, qualifying directly to the round of 16, but currently sit 10^th in the top-flight table.

Those numbers look worse when looking at the Villans’ other 20 league games this season, in which they have averaged 1.80 points per game (W10 D6 L4), an increase of 1.05 points when compared to their eight matches following a UEFA Champions League outing (0.75 per game).

Meanwhile Manchester City might be grateful that their European journey is already over for the campaign, giving them a chance to concentrate on qualifying for next season’s UEFA Champions League. The Citizens average 2.00 points in their league games that haven’t come after Europe this season compared to 1.30 in matches directly after Europe.

On the flip side of that, Manchester United may wish they had a Thursday/Sunday schedule every week, with their points per game rate increasing by 0.57 points in games after a UEFA Europa League match (1.05 v 1.63).

Looking back at teams that fit the Villa mould, i.e. non-big six teams, and since the 2014-15 campaign, only two of 13 have improved their league position from the season they qualified for Europe in to the season they competed in Europe in.

Those two examples both came last season when Aston Villa went from 7^th place in 2022-23 to 4^th place in 2023-24, and West Ham who finished 14^th in 2022-23, but qualified for the UEFA Europa League as Conference League winners, and climbed to 9^th place in 2024-25.

Four of those 13 have dropped to a bottom half finish while only three have qualified for Europe directly from their league position.

Finally, when comparing each of the 17 ever-present Premier League teams’ points totals to their respective points tallies from the same fixtures last season, five of the seven that are worse off in 2024-25 have competed in one of the three major European competitions this term.

So as previously asked, is European football a help or a hindrance? The Aston Villa fans who witnessed the 1-0 win over Bayern Munich at Villa Park and the 3-2 victory in Leipzig probably don’t care what the answer is! Even if they only just prop up the top half of the Premier League table come May.

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