SIX weeks after they won the Champions League final together, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane could end up facing each other in the Cup of Nations final. That would, admittedly, mean either Egypt or Senegal coming second in their group – otherwise they would mean in the semi-final – but there is little doubt that Egypt are overwhelming favourites to win the final in Cairo on July 19, while Senegal look the side most likely to stop them.
The biggest question is whether anybody can beat Egypt. It’s not just that they are the most successful side in Cup of Nations history, that they reached the semi-final two years ago on their return to the tournament after an absence of seven years (largely for political reasons), and that they have a highly talented squad of whom Salah is the jewel. It’s that they’ve won three of the four Cups of Nations they’ve previously hosted, and finished third in the other one.
Home advantage is always a major factor in Cups of Nations and nobody has perhaps used it as effectively as Egypt. Only two sides have ever won a game against them on home soil in the competition – Zaire in the semi-final in 1974, coming from 2-0 down, and Senegal in the group stage in 1986. In 2006, the most recent occasion on which Egypt hosted, the main stadium in Cairo was packed with 70,000 fans hours before kick-off for every Egypt game. The atmosphere was ferocious and the impact that had on opponents and referees was clear. Senegal were denied a clear penalty in the semi-final, while Cote d’Ivoire were furious about the route their bus took for the final, believing they were deliberately led into intimidating situations. (Which is not to say Egypt weren’t deserving champions; as they proved by retaining their title in 2008 and 2010, they were a very high-class side).
The one slight doubt is that they didn’t win their qualifying group, finishing second behind Tunisia. Still though, they hardly scraped through, taking 13 points from their six games and beating the Tunisians 3-2 at home. Although they lost 1-0 in Rades, that was way back in June 2017 in the first qualifier. Their only other dropped points came away to Niger in their final qualifier when Tidjani Moutari scored an 82nd-minute equaliser. By then though, they had already qualified, had been named as hosts (as a late replacement for Cameroon) and knew that, with Tunisia at home to Eswatini, they were unlikely to top the group anyway, given Tunisia held the edge on head-to-head thanks to their away goals.
Senegal, by contrast, qualified in some style, their only dropped points coming in a 2-2 draw away to their fellow qualifiers Madagascar. Aliou Cisse, the former Birmingham City and Portsmouth midfielder, has been in charge since 2015 (part of a more general, and extremely welcome, trend of African nations giving their managers more time), and has instilled both a well-honed system of play and a ferocious team spirit.
They can play a 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3, but whatever the shape the idea is similar. The centre of midfield, based around Idrissa Gana Gueye, sits deep, protecting the back four, and Senegal then attack down the flanks, using the pace of Mane and Keita Balde. Problems can come against teams who sit deep against them and so offer those rapid wide-men no space to run into, as Cameroon did in the quarter-final two years ago in Gabon. That game finished goalless before Cameroon won on penalties but Senegal have evolved since and the use of two central forwards – M’Baye Niang and Mane, or perhaps Mame Biram Diouf if Mane is used wide – is a means of introducing an attacking edge that isn’t reliant on getting in behind the opposition.
Salah pipped Mane to be CAF’s Africa Player of the Year in both 2017 and 2018. The Liverpool pair each scored 22 Premier League goals in 2018-19. They have been exceptional in tandem: the fascination now is seeing them in opposition. Although they probably are the best two teams at the tournament, it would in some way be fitting if they met in another Cairo semi-final and Mane could seek revenge for the penalty that wasn’t given 13 years ago when Ibrahim Said brought down Diomansy Kamara. Beating Egypt in Cairo, though, remains exceptionally difficult.
