THERE is still much to assimilate from Virgil Van Dijk’s season-long injury but at least for Liverpool supporters some solace can be found in how their team has immediately responded to the seismic setback.
At home to Sheffield United, exactly a week after their Dutch colossus sustained serious ACL damage, the Reds conceded early and who could blame them at that point had they fragmented further? After all, the prolonged loss of Van Dijk is expected to be so substantial that even the startling statistics designed to illustrate just how substantial it will be barely registered; made redundant by what we’ve seen with our own eyes ever since the defender arrived at Anfield at the start of 2018 and hauled the club up to a whole other level.
Even so, for what it’s worth, here are those stats anyway. Prior to his injury Liverpool’s totemic leader missed just 13 fixtures from which 20 goals were conceded at a rate of 1.5 per game. Man City are 8/13 to score over 1.5 goals on Sunday. In the 130 matches he demanded and exceeded excellence from himself and his team-mates Liverpool conceded only 1.04 goals-per-game. The win percentage from those 13 games was 46%. That rises considerably to 70% with Van Dijk present.
Factor in too incontestable data that highlights his immense importance at set-pieces and it’s hardly surprising that his extended absence has – in the words of Jamie Carragher – ‘blown the title race wide open’.
Pep Guardiola on #MCILIV affecting selection vs Olympiacos: "No, no, no. We have a big chance – not to qualify – but if we get nine points, it’s almost done. We'll need one more point, one more victory to qualify. At home you need to win, be careful…"#MCFC | @ManCity
— Man City Xtra (@City_Xtra) November 1, 2020
Going behind then just 13 minutes in against the Blades was exactly what Jurgen Klopp’s team didn’t need yet, to their enormous credit, they dug deep, found their passing rhythm, and ultimately won out courtesy of a neat header from their new signing Diogo Jota. More impressive still, seven days later almost the exact same scenario played out with this time West Ham daring to score first and Jota once again notching a morale-boosting winner. Liverpool are 23/2 to beat Man City after being a goal behind.
Liverpool’s resolve compares very favourably to how their hosts this Sunday Manchester City dealt with a similar blow last season when their own defensive rock succumbed to a long-term lay-off. In many ways Aymeric Laporte can be said to be City’s Van Dijk – a classy and authoritative presence at the back – and like the Dutchman he too cruelly saw his campaign written off just a handful of games in.
Only City’s reaction was to head across to Norwich straight after and let in three comedically poor goals then within a month lose at home to Wolves, once more due to defensive frailties. A narrative they could be ‘got at’ was established and it was to prove their undoing.
It remains to be seen whether Liverpool will suffer such a fate but surely this weekend’s trip to the Etihad will be their most severe test so far since being deprived of Van Dijk. Yet, when switching our attention to City all is not what it seems right now. Perhaps it won’t even be as challenging as logic suggests?
Let’s return to those Van Dijk stats. Football is increasingly structured these days by statistics. They inform us. They shape our thinking. But when it came to the Liverpool defender’s injury the figures looked anaemic on the screen compared to what we already knew to be true. In short, they stated the bleeding obvious.
Contrast that with stats concerning City’s attack this term however and they truly come to the fore; revealing details that might ordinarily have passed us by, particularly as we continue to wrongly fixate on the Blues’ back-line.
Frankly, there is no longer a problem in that area anymore. It’s misdirection to even look there. The arrival of Ruben Dias alongside Laporte has given them a solidity long lacking while individual errors have become a rarity. Kyle Walker meanwhile is in the form of his life. Man City are 10/3 to win to nil.
No, it is actually up front where City are struggling right now, a shortcoming that can largely be attributed to having no fit strikers available but also arguably because security is being prioritised just for the time being. Man City are 6/5 to score under 1.5 goals against Liverpool this Sunday.
This is demonstrated conclusively by the stats. Last season the four times Premier League champions didn’t simply top the XG table. They smashed it, finishing miles ahead of the rest. Whereas, on this occasion, to date their 9.16 is bettered by eight teams, including West Ham, Aston Villa and Brighton.
If this highlights that less chances are being created, it naturally follows that goals are in shorter supply and this is indeed so. From their opening six league games Guardiola’s men have converted nine times. In the Catalan’s previous four seasons in Manchester his side have averaged 20.5 goals in that fixture period.
All of which suggests that our focus and intrigue for Sunday should be reserved for the home side’s attempts to unlock Liverpool’s rear-guard and not tactical chicanery in midfield or the explosive threats of Mohamed Salah and Sergio Aguero as is usually the case.
It’s a story within a story that will feature a converted winger in Ferran Torres who is still adapting to the English game. It will possibly also feature a rookie in Nathaniel Phillips making only his second first-team appearance. It will be a defence that everybody is expecting to be weakened coming up against an attack that presently is. Torres is 12/5 to score any time.
This is a marquee game that in recent years has seen two extraordinary sides collide, with elite talents and memorable moments all caught up in the debris. Now it comes down to which of the two can better overcome a problem. If that doesn’t perfectly sum up this season to date, then what does?
Latest match odds: Man City (19/20) Draw (3/4) Liverpool (12/5)
