WE need to talk about Arsenal’s imperious away form in 2024.

Narrowly beating Nottingham Forest back in January, the Gunners have gone on to win ten of their 11 league contests away from the Emirates, drawing the other.

It is a run that includes wins to nil at Brighton, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Spurs. The aggregate scoreline from these games is 31-3.

Bolstered by this recent dominance on their travels, Mikel Arteta’s men head to East Manchester this weekend – the scene of that solitary draw – where they will unusually be pitched as underdogs. That’s because Pep Guardiola’s four-time consecutive league champions last lost at the Etihad way back in November 2022.  That was 46 games ago, in all competitions.

Such extreme stats are the norm these days at the Premier League’s summit but that wasn’t always the case. When Arsenal won the title in 1998 they accrued 78 points, a tally that would have placed them fourth last term. There are more recent examples too, such as City losing six games on route to securing a title in 2021.

That would constitute a crisis in the current climate.

It’s a climate that demands perfection and the absolute avoidance of defeat, knowing that even one slip leaves either team with a mountain to climb thereafter. And that regrettably informs us of what’s to come this Sunday afternoon, a tight, tense affair that will inevitably see each side, first and foremost, look to negate the other.

Go for under 2.5 goals and pair that with under 9.5 corners at 13/5. The last five meetings have averaged 7.6 corners per game.

That was certainly the case in the corresponding clash last season, the visitors intent on securing a goalless stalemate from the opening whistle and never veering from that aim.

It was an approach that was greeted with some criticism – or perhaps more accurately, some frustration – from the Arsenal fan-base who believed a victory was attainable if a couple of risks were taken.

As it was, the Gunners stoically, stubbornly remained solid throughout, their banks of four rooted to their primary positions, and subsequently City were restricted to just a single shot on target. It was only the fourth time in the Guardiola era that City endured consecutive shut-outs against the same team having lost 0-1 in North London earlier in the season.

Even with the benefit of hindsight incidentally, it was a logical strategy deployed by the Spaniard. Arsenal began that afternoon one point ahead and with ten to play and backed themselves to match, or better, City’s results down the home straight.

It was only a loss to Villa, and City’s ruthless relentlessness, that undid Arteta’s masterplan.

Will the Gunners again be conservative, and again seek to dilute all drama from a fixture that has all the ingredients to be spectacular? Their ultra-pragmatic showing in the North London Derby last weekend suggests so, a display that brought to mind George Graham’s dour, but highly successful, methodology from yesteryear.

Compensating for the seismic losses of Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard, Arsenal willingly ceded 64% of the possession to their arch neighbours, rigidly keeping to a 4-4-2 shape without the ball. They rode their luck at times, epitomized by David Raya being awarded with the Player of the Match, but for the umpteenth time of late we witnessed a side previously damned for being overly-emotional now showing their mettle and discipline.

It was a display that should worry City far more than an exuberant, comprehensive win.

Backing the draw at 27/10 tempts, especially in a game expected to offer up few chances

Similar mettle and discipline will certainly be needed at the Etihad, not least in keeping Erling Haaland quiet, the striker breaking yet another record by scoring nine goals in his opening four outings. That’s 82% of City’s haul at this early juncture. It’s more than any top-flight team have managed to this point in their entirety, and that includes Arsenal.

It should be noted that the Gunners have efficiently nullified the 24-year-old for three games running now – rendering him all-but-anonymous twice-over – but what does recent form matter when a phenomenon is locked in to doing something phenomenal?

The Norwegian is of course a serious threat to Arsenal’s title hopes, this weekend and across the whole campaign.

Backing Haaland to score anytime is a sensible choice at 23/20

Elsewhere, Jeremy Doku has completed 4.7 successful dribbles per 90, a league high, while the return of last season’s Footballer of the Year Phil Foden affords Guardiola even greater options in the attacking third, the England star boasting five previous goal involvements in this fixture.

Most convincing of all naturally is City’s outstanding output to date. They’re started with a bang, their only weakness a propensity to concede early. The Blues have been breached inside 20 minutes in each of their last three contests.

In this instance however, that detail should be ignored, it giving way to a more persuasive stat that concerns the fixture itself.

The last five goals scored when these sides have met have all been converted beyond the 75^th minute. Indeed, 13 of the last 18 goals have arrived after the break.

Under 0.5 goals in the first half is great value at 15/8

When stepping back and viewing this match-up as a whole it would be lovely to be wrong and for an incident-packed thriller to play out. Sadly, all the evidence leans to the contrary.

Furthermore, for full disclosure, it is mighty tempting to listen to nagging instincts and back a tight home win, but how can all of the positives that surround Arsenal at present be minimized? In addition to the ones mentioned above, Rice is back while Bukayo Saka’s injury worry has proven to be a false alarm. Moreover, the Gunners are unbeaten in three against a side that used to outclass them twice a season.

Then there’s a formidable rearguard to consider, with Arsenal keeping clean sheets in 63.6% of their league obligations in 2024.

George Graham would be very proud of that one.