IF you’d have known at the end of last season that Manchester City would be without Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin De Bruyne would play fewer than half of the possible league minutes in 2023-24, you’d have been tempted to think Pep Guardiola’s side might have been heading for some creativity problems along the way this term. Even by their standards, losing two key providers for Erling Haaland would surely have some consequences.
Of course, we now know Manchester City are just a game away from defending their title, and winning a record fourth consecutive top-flight title. However, it’s not that they’ve been fine without Kevin De Bruyne and done so regardless of his low participation this season. Rather, his contribution has been so exaggerated in the minutes he’s played, he’s essentially produced a season’s worth of impact in a third of the time.
After only playing 23 minutes across his team’s first 19 Premier League games this season, De Bruyne’s return from injury on January 13th was the harbinger for what was to come, and showed his intent to make up for lost time. In a 21-minute substitute cameo away to Newcastle, the Belgian came on at 2-1 down, scored the equaliser, and then assisted the winning goal to make it 3-2 in added time. It was the first time since Sergio Agüero in January 2014 (v Cardiff) that a Manchester City player had scored and assisted as a substitute in the Premier League.
The 32-year-old Kevin De Bruyne has gone on to score four goals in the Premier League this season, but it’s his contribution on the creative side that has been transformational in getting Manchester City back into – and then ahead – in the title race. On January 12th, the day before De Bruyne would return from injury against Newcastle, 207 players had made more assists than him in the 2023-24 Premier League campaign. As things stand ahead of the final matchday of the season, only one player (Ollie Watkins) now sits above him in the assist charts.
In making up ground in doubly quick time, this is now the sixth time that De Bruyne has assisted 10+ goals in a Premier League campaign – the joint-most of any player in the competition’s history, along with Cesc Fàbregas. And as it stands, the sixth of those will also be the first time in the history of the competition that a player has played fewer than 20 appearances and reached double figures for assists in a Premier League season.
Speaking generally, we know assists in isolation aren’t always the best indicators of who really are the best creators. An assist relies on your teammate finishing a chance you’ve laid on for them, and that doesn’t happen 10 times out of 10. Of course, In the case of De Bruyne we’re much less suspicious about whether the numbers might be lying to us – both given his quality and the finishing ability that typically surrounds him.
With that said, the Belgian’s mini season isn’t merely a story of his teammates making the absolute most of what he’s provided. Perhaps with the benefit of having fresher legs and arriving from January onwards, those creative powers have been super-charged even beyond his usual standards.
De Bruyne has created an average of 3.4 chances from open play per 90 in the Premier League this term; the highest season average on record via Opta (since 2003-04). As well as that, his per 90 average for big chances created is also the highest single season figure that Opta have on record (since 2010-11). If you’re wondering how we come up with the latter, a big chance is defined as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter.
On Tuesday night, in what ought to be the defining game of Manchester City’s Premier League campaign, it was Kevin De Bruyne again who found the solution for his side on the biggest stage. Following a nervy first half in which the Citizens’ necessity to win appeared to be hampering their typical game, his 51st minute assist for Haaland – a generous 0.93 xG chance, at that – was the one that sent them on their way to an eventual 2-0 victory.
Man City’s opener on the night also happened to be De Bruyne’s 112th career assist in the Premier League. Admittedly it doesn’t sound all that significant in isolation, but it did take him beyond Cesc Fàbregas (111) into second place in the all-time rankings in the competition, where now only trails Ryan Giggs (162). If getting to number one looks an unassailable task from here, it’s worth remembering Giggs has played 373 more Premier League games than the Belgian.
Even in a season where he’s only played 17 times in the league, Kevin De Bruyne has continued to somehow carve out a new set of accomplishments within the history of the competition. In fact, should he play the full match on the final day against West Ham, he’ll still have only played 34% of available minutes in the Premier League this season – essentially a third of the season.
With just one game separating him and another top-flight English title, De Bruyne’s contribution in 2023-24 may have been light on games, but it was abundant in impact.
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