WHETHER you’re a dreamer, a doom monger or something in between, you’ll likely already have theories on how next season will work out for Liverpool.
The mind is such that if we let it, stories will be written, fortunes will be told and opinions will quickly feel like fact. Such is the human condition.
It’s evident in the tiresome transfer tattle that will chatter and chunner on until the chance to chuck in a cheque has passed. One theory goes like this: without a big deal or two, Liverpool will go backwards, the Reds will fade away. And a sixth European Cup will shift from all our dreams being made to another wasted opportunity.
A grim way of looking at things. And yet no one knows. No one can. We can mull over likely scenarios. We can suggest areas for concern. We can ponder that a player or two would likely make a sustainable march for silverware that bit easier.
But nobody knows.
That being the case, are there any lessons to be had from looking back to history rather than predicting the future?
How did past European Cup winners fare the season after getting a grip on that magnificent pot and enjoying the adulation that follows?
Again, there are caveats and concerns. This Liverpool – the side and squad on the up and up under Jurgen Klopp – isn’t any other Liverpool, or any other team. Opposition strength and quality can differ year on year. Clubs can be fortunate with injuries or cup draws (or unfortunate).
But nevertheless, it’s worth an explore – what’s the general pattern? What’s the vibe? How does seeing that gleaming reminder of glory every day generally seem to affect the collective psyche of football teams?
Jordan Henderson mentioned that it could lift opponents – that teams will want to beat the European Champions. He also added that was nothing new. Teams have always wanted to beat Liverpool. The club has always been considered a scalp, and Anfield always considered an illustrious place to emerge victorious. So, no change there.
Perhaps, like seemed to be the case for Manchester United for years, the opposite may be true. That teams will see a side with few weaknesses, playing good football, comfortable with their process, confident with their way, and it will see them shrink into their shell. It would be nice to think that Liverpool could pick up some ‘easier’ points one day.
But back to the markers of the past.
Only 22 clubs have ever won the European Cup. England has had 13 winners and six were Liverpool sides, making The Reds the third most successful club in the history of the competition, behind only AC Milan (7) and Real Madrid (13).
The season that will most readily spring to mind for most Reds is the one following the improbable, impossible-looking, odds-defying Champions League victory in Istanbul in 2005.
After bouncing back from 3-0 down to level the tie at 3-3 and win on penalties, Rafa Benitez’s Liverpool kept on swinging in the season that followed.
Much is made of the unfancied slinging mud at the predictions by lifting European Cup number five but that narrative, while partly true, does a disservice to the quality in the squad.
In the campaign that followed, Pepe Reina had been added, while Steven Finnan, Sami Hyppia, Jamie Carragher and John Arne Riise did the legwork in defence. Midfield showed Steven Gerrard, Xabi Alonso, Dietmar Hamman and Luis Garcia among others, while up front Djibril Cisse and Peter Crouch hit double figures to complement top scorer Gerrard.
They were no mugs and that was shown in a third-place Premier League finish, only nine points adrift of champions Chelsea, and a seventh FA Cup for the trophy cabinet.
Europe was a disappointment, with The Reds failing to defend their title further than the last 16, but it was far from a disastrous season. Few can be described as such when cups are tied up in club colours.
Going back further in time to the golden age of Liverpool, the club famously defended the first European Cup title won in Rome 1977 with more of the same at Wembley in 1978. A runners-up spot in the league ran alongside that second European Cup.
Liverpool’s third, in 1981, when the mighty Real Madrid were downed, was followed by a league title and a League Cup the following season while 1984’s glory in Rome was the precursor to another European Cup final in the next campaign and a second-placed finish in the league.
And how about other English clubs?
Returning to more modern times, the last English winner prior to Liverpool’s triumph over Tottenham in Madrid was Chelsea in 2012, the Londoners winning on penalties after the score against Bayern Munich was tied at 1-1 after extra time.
Roberto Di Matteo lifted the trophy in Munich as interim manager of Chelsea, adding to an FA Cup already in the bag, and was rewarded with a two-year permanent deal.
LIVERPOOL TO WIN THE PREMIER LEAGUE – 11/5
But – and very much in modern-day Chelsea fashion – he was gone by the November, sacked and replaced by another interim choice, Rafa Benitez.
Benitez guided Chelsea to success in the Europa League after the Stamford Bridge side had failed to get out of the Champions League group stages – the first holders to fall at that point of the competition.
The club also finished third in the Premier League and lost at the semi-final stage of the League and FA Cups.
A time of turmoil and ruthless decisions then – none of which is likely to be replicated at Anfield come the new season – and yet still another cup was lifted.
One last example to chew on is Manchester United, as tough as that chew may be.
After winning the third and last of their European Cups in 2008, Alex Ferguson’s side clocked up 90 points in the Premier League the following season to pip Liverpool to the title by four points.
Manchester United also reached the European Cup final once more, only to be beaten by Barcelona in the final.
The past then, at least from cursory analysis, suggests that Liverpool will not be going away anytime soon.
Some will say that it counts for little but sportsmen’s tales from the past to the present are filled with talk of golden moments when things click, confidence goes through the roof and teams become an unstoppable force.
Liverpool – a club that racked up 97 points and reached the Champions League final for the second successive season last time – were very close to being just that.
With a European Cup now in tow as evidence of greatness, who is happy to bet against the happiest of history repeating come May?
Odds of 11/5 for Liverpool to win the Premier League and 7/1 for the Champions League suggest not too many.
My story is that the future is bright. And I’m sticking to it.
