BEFORE the stand-out bets for this weekend are flagged up, some good news for the FA Cup nostalgists.

In the last five seasons, 55 fourth round fixtures have seen a side take on an opponent from a higher division. On nine occasions the underdogs have prevailed.

This suggests that it is not quite yet when the big guns play their strongest elevens and properly bare their teeth. That typically occurs when the competition funnels down to its last 16.

It suggests that an upset or two could await us over the next few days.

Pouring some cold water in this theory however is the lack of opportunities for this to happen. Nine of the forthcoming fixtures are Premier League vs Premier League or Championship vs Championship and furthermore several of the remaining match-ups require a huge leap of faith.

Can Newport pull of a shock of all shocks by beating Manchester United? The Exiles’ achievement was in manifesting this memorable meeting. This is their reward.

The same goes for non-league Maidstone taking on promotion-chasing Ipswich at Portman Road.

It is necessary therefore for us to reduce our threshold as to what constitutes an ‘upset’.

Take Bristol City and their hosting of Nottingham Forest on Friday evening.

On these very pages three weeks ago the Robins were fancied against West Ham with winger Tommy Conway backed to score. The 21-year-old duly obliged twice-over, first equalising to force a replay, then notching a winner amidst a raucous Ashton Gate.

Can history repeat itself in the West Country? What leans us towards this are circumstances beyond their opponent’s control with three-quarters of Forest’s back four absent through injury or international duty.

When Nuno Espirito Santo took on the ailing Tricky Trees a notable improvement quickly became apparent but since being deprived of Boly, Aurier and Aina to AFCON it’s fair to say they have struggled at the back, conceding every 38 minutes. Moreover, it took them 210 minutes to get past League One Blackpool.

Granted, with Danilo chipping in from midfield and with Chris Wood in fine fettle, Forest have been a threat at the other end. But crucially, Bristol City are a far different proposition to the Tangerines defensively, keeping five clean sheets at home to date and boasting the best defensive record in the Championship outside of the top six.

Back the Robins as the team to go through at 7/4

Elsewhere, Alexander Isak to continue his terrific goal-scoring form at the expense of Fulham entices, for all that Newcastle have self-combusted in the league.

Five strikes in his last three outings is persuasive enough reason to back the Swede who has compensated superbly for the injuries and loss of form around him. Moreover, Isak has only played 19 minutes against the Cottagers since arriving in England. He came off the bench that afternoon and scored.

Factor in too, Fulham’s recent inability to keep a clean sheet and the striker who has fired 24% of his team’s league goals this term is expected to play a major part in proceedings at Craven Cottage.

His 10.1 xG is the fifth best in the top-flight. 1.7 shots on target in 2023/24 is right up there too.

Back Isak to score anytime at 11/8

Earlier on Saturday afternoon, Plymouth travel up to Yorkshire for a clash that should feature plenty of goals given the prolificacy of both sides involved.

Leeds have taken on a league-high of 15.9 shots per 90 this season and are much better at home than away from Elland Road. Their last eight games on familiar soil has seen them convert 2.7 per 90 and it’s pertinent that one of those was against the Pilgrims, ending in a 2-1 win.

As for the visitors, since gaining promotion from the third tier last May they have been as productive up front as they are porous at the back. Plymouth have out-scored all but the top four this season in the Championship but only two teams have been breached more often.

Their last seven matches have produced 4.2 goals per 90.

Look out for Morgan Whittaker leading the line, the forward committing to four shots a game while his partner-in-crime Ryan Hardie is not too far behind in this regard either. Between them, the dangerous pair have accrued 25 league goals and 10 assists.

Unbeaten at Elland Road in 2023/24, Leeds are tipped to reach the next round, but a tight 1-0 victory feels so unlikely.

Back BTTS at 7/10

Lastly, we come to Wrexham’s trip to Ewood Park on Monday evening, the Reds outsiders due to their league standing but less so in terms of quality of personnel and resources.

Of course, no matter who their owners are, and no matter how lethal Paul Mullin is at any level, it’s a big ask for the Welsh side to scale 33 league places and triumph here, especially as Blackburn posses the Championship’s leading goalscorer in Sammie Szmodics. The attacking midfielder has scored every 144 minutes this season while Adam Wharton has also impressed centrally, his displays prompting Premier League interest.

But all the same, memories go back to how Wrexham tore into Coventry last year, going two up in a heartbeat and this leads us to some interesting stats.

That Blackburn have the worst defensive record in the second tier is the most obvious failing of Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side but a habit of conceding early also catches the eye.

They have been breached inside half an hour in each of their last six outings while only Norwich outside of the bottom four have conceded more first half goals in the Championship.

Conversely, Wrexham have scored inside 25 minutes in 47% of their fixtures this season, firing 20 all told.

Back Wrexham to be ahead at the break at 18/5