ARNE Slot’s title-winning squad rightfully celebrated long into the night on Sunday but closer inspection of the photographs reveals the beer was non-alcoholic.

After accruing 2.4 points per game from August to April, scoring 2+ goals in 85% of their league commitments, and keeping 14 clean sheets there is still work to do for the all-conquering Reds, not least the chance to carve out some history. They are just five points shy of winning the Premier League by the widest ever margin.

Motivation therefore won’t be a problem as they head south to Stamford Bridge, to face down an opponent they last lost to 11 meetings ago.

And yet, Liverpool fans will recall the spring of 2020 – when they last secured a league title – and what transpired after the Lord Mayor’s Show then. Crowned as Premier League champions for the first time just days earlier, the Merseysiders headed to the Etihad where they were welcomed onto the pitch to a guard of honour. Manchester City then proceeded to dismantle their visitors to the tune of a four-goal thumping. They were three up at the break.

That is not to suggest that a similar comprehensive outcome could occur in the capital this weekend – it very likely won’t – but with Chelsea fully immersed in a top five scrap there is a pertinent point to be made here.

Liverpool can be as professional as possible in their preparation, and they can want to want the three points as much as they like. But that extra edge in needing to win can be everything when two elite sides collide. It can decide a result all by itself.

Chelsea full time and under 4.5 goals is a shout as a popular bet builder at 29/20

And make no mistake about it, Chelsea need to win this Sunday. Failure to do so could very conceivably leave the Blues several points adrift of Champions League qualification, with less than a handful of fixtures remaining, and frankly, a third consecutive season outside of the European aristocracy doesn’t bear thinking about given the scale of Chelsea’s operation in the Todd Boehly era.

For the Blues then this is a crunch game, the first of four, all against extremely testing opposition.

Enzo Maresca’s men therefore will be grateful to be going into their days of reckoning in decent shape, even if their fan-base have been vocally critical of the coach’s pragmatic approach.

Unbeaten at home since Boxing Day, four of their subsequent eight league games at the Bridge have been won to nil while a lofty shots tally in these contests disproves the notion that Maresca can be overly cautious.

When hosting Ipswich recently 34 attempts on goal were undertaken while their season’s average at home compares favourably to anyone. It amounts to a shot every 4.9 minutes.

Via blocks and saves it’s a high shot-count that explains a recent spike in corners at the Bridge, 7.7 per 90 across their last four games compared to 5.0 per 90 in the four prior. Go for over 9.5 total corners at 8/11

The downside to this of course is how few of these chances have been taken, a shortcoming that has cost Chelsea dear all term. They have the worst chance conversion rate of anyone in the top ten and when we narrow that down to individuals a startling stat emerges concerning two of their key personnel.

In 2025, Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson have taken on a combined 73 shots in the league alone. They have scored from just three of them.

A recent upturn in form for the latter and Jackson ending a 13-game goal-drought last weekend in some way lessens the severity of this problem but still, when coming up against Virgil Van Dijk and company opportunities have to be clinically taken.  And Chelsea have been anything-but-clinical for quite some time now.

Naturally, there are no such concerns for Liverpool, not after putting five past Spurs last Sunday and furthermore averaging 2.4 goals per 90 on their travels this season.

Having Mo Salah running down their wing obviously helps in this regard, the Egyptian Prince enjoying a quite phenomenal campaign, but don’t overlook the recent output of Luis Diaz who has also been flying of late. The Colombian boasts four goal involvements in his last five outings.

Diaz to have over 0.5 shots on target feels generous at 49/50 given his propensity to let fly on sight of goal

Then there’s Liverpool defence to consider, one that seems to be back to its imperious best after a slight mid-season wobble.

You may be wondering why the Chelsea tip above focuses on corners, rather than shots, and this after talking up their high volume of attempts on goal at home. It’s because in their last five league matches, Liverpool have faced just 13 SOT, a paltry amount that is testament to their structure and discipline as much as individual performances.

Even so, the hosts are backed here to prevail. They may need to go against type and be clinical. They certainly must address a poor head-to-head that has seen them fail to win 10 on the bounce in this contest.

But crucially, losing isn’t an option for the Blues here, whereas for Liverpool it is.

It may be an early goal that decides it too, in a fixture that rarely produces goal-fests. Nine of the last 12 encounters have conjured up two or fewer strikes.

Seven of the last eight goals the Reds have conceded have been converted before the break.

Backing the hosts to be 1-0 up at half-time offers up 3.35/1

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