HAVING reached their first major final since 1999, Newcastle United must field either a goalkeeper who hasn’t played a competitive game for a full year or turn to their fourth-choice stopper.

It’s the kind of unfortunate farce that could only befall the Magpies, who may have the riches of Croesus but have still retained – for now – their ability to be biblically slapstick and the deeper you dig into the circumstances, the more fool’s gold is mined.

This season, Nick Pope has unquestionably been the best performing keeper in the top-flight, behind the best performing back-line. To lose him therefore for Sunday’s showpiece event at Wembley, due to a moment of panic masquerading as madness against Liverpool last weekend, feels decidedly cruel. A blow indeed.

A bet builder backing over 3.5 offsides, over 4.5 shots on target for the Red Devils, and over 0.5 fouls by Sean Longstaff offers up 5/1

At least though, Eddie Howe can deploy his back-up Martin Dubravka, a player who boasts well over 100 Premier League appearances, except of course he can’t, because the imposing Slovak went on loan to Old Trafford earlier this season, and by playing in a couple of Carabao Cup games is ineligible. This means that should Manchester United prevail, Dubravka would be entitled to step onto the podium and parade his winners medal. Not that he would. That would be insane.

So instead Howe must rely on Loris Karius, who presumably is still haunted by the ghosts of Kyiv, a Champions League final so traumatic that had it been a film and not real life you would have suspected the scriptwriter of undergoing an embittered mid-life crisis. If Howe looks elsewhere, there is Mark Gillespie, whose career highlight was only conceding three to Spurs for Carlisle in this competition way back in 2012.

One of these two men must face Marcus Rashford this week, whose prolificacy is so off-the-scale it warrants further reflection below but is mentioned here because of how it contrasts with another worry for Newcastle, that of their wastefulness in attack. Remarkably, across all comps in 2023, the England star has fired four more goals than all of his forthcoming opponents put together.

Go for Rashford to have over 2.5 shots at 7/10

In the Premier League just three goals in seven for Howe’s side has put their top four aspirations in jeopardy and the stats tell us errant finishing is to blame because in those seven contests Newcastle have racked up 97 attempts on goal, 31 on target, yet converted a meagre three. In their seven previous encounters they managed ten fewer attempts and one less shot on target but scored a healthy 15.

The drying up of Miguel Almiron’s wholly uncharacteristic scoring streak is another consideration, with the Paraguayan often popping up at the most opportune moment and all told, inevitably, such profligacy has had a real effect on results. Since New Year’s Eve, Newcastle have averaged a point per game compared to two points per 90 to that juncture.

At the back too there is now a concern, though not an especially big one, just something to keep an eye on because of their lack of productivity elsewhere.

Against Liverpool last Sunday, the Magpies were breached twice inside 20 minutes and they simply don’t do that, not this term. Going into the game Howe’s men had conceded just four first half goals all season long and if their seemingly impenetrable rearguard is now showing signs of being penetrable you have to fear for their chances in the capital.

It is a chance, let’s not forget, that amounts to winning their first domestic honour for 67 years.

Manchester United are a tempting 13/8 to be ahead at the break

Their opponents are also enduring a trophy drought, even if in their case it’s a mere six years but still, those seasons of ineptitude and struggle already feel like ancient history with Erik Ten Hag at the wheel, instilling order where once there was chaos.

United go into this game in the best shape possible, their only cloud being the deprival of the suspended Casemiro.

Elsewhere, this is a collective full of confidence and cohesion having lost only one of their last 19 across all competitions, and also imbued with the knowledge that if all else fails, Marcus Rashford will probably score, as has become the norm. The rejuvenated striker has scored 16 in his last 16 outings and this equates to a goal every 79 minutes going all the way back to the week before Christmas.

Illustrating his importance to the Reds, in that time Rashford has bagged 41% of his team’s goals and he will very likely be a big presence this weekend.

As too might Jadon Sancho who has scored two in three from off the bench in recent weeks and who is displaying clear signs of rehabilitation. The time to back the winger is now while he’s on an upcurve but his odds are still to catch on.

Bruno Fernandes meanwhile may be – unfairly? – damned as a player who disappoints on the biggest stages but with three key passes per 90 in 2022/23, he must be fancied to be instrumental.

An average of four cautions per final in the last five years – and with Manchester United at the wrong end of the fair play table in 2022/23 – suggests over 3.5 cards at evens is a shout