IT is impossible to look ahead to this Sunday’s Carabao Cup final without first addressing the elephant in the room and illustrating just how crazy and tumultuous this past week has been that enormous distraction isn’t even Jose Mourinho’s sacking.
That both teams participating at Wembley were part of the breakaway six clubs seeking to form a European Super League, to the severe detriment of the English game, is a detail that will overshadow every moment of this weekend’s clash, as Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur compete in this tournament thankfully now not for the final time. Regardless, many neutrals will watch on with disdain, hoping for the impossible outcome of both sides losing and heavily so while City and Spurs supporters will still tune in conflicted and weirdly detached.
The groundswell of contempt that greeted this week’s surreal developments was entirely right and entirely understandable, but we cannot allow judgements to cloud judgements here. Because above all else this is a major sporting event and above all else normality must now resume.
For almost two decades Jose Mourinho had won trophies at every club he managed.
But six days before Spurs play the League Cup final, he exits without a trophy at Tottenham. pic.twitter.com/jn4f4e1buP
— B/R Football (@brfootball) April 19, 2021
So, we focus primarily on the seismic dismissal of Mourinho just six days before Tottenham’s first domestic final for six years. Surely this will have a significant impact on proceedings, that much is certain, but beyond that, alas, we are completely in the dark as to how.
The facts state that Tottenham have won only seven of their last 18 competitive fixtures and their sustained slump has only been exacerbated by a costly habit of dropping points from winning positions. Twenty have been squandered all told with 11 of them surrendered in the final ten minutes of games.
19/20 is a good shout for both teams to score. Individually they tend to, racking up 220 goals between them this term.
Yet it is also right to acknowledge that Jose Mourinho is not the type of manager who merely oversees poor performances at the tail-end of a tenure. Ill-feelings fester. Player morale hits the floor. Creativity is neutered.
It is conceivable then that a transformed Spurs may emerge at the weekend for all of their recent woes. That we may see Lucas Moura and Gareth Bale flying at City with the intensity of freed hostages. We may even see a smile return to Son Heung-min’s face.
Tottenham's Goals of the Month this season…
September: Son v Southampton
October: Son v Burnley
November: Son v Man City
December: Son v ArsenalFour in four for Heung-min Son!#THFC #COYSpic.twitter.com/IL3NmT49Cl
— TranSPURS (@TranSPURS) January 11, 2021
Staying with the South Korean, much responsibility rests on his attacking forays and goal-threat given the likely absence of Harry Kane, though Tottenham may not miss their prolific superstar quite as much as logic dictates. City have traditionally been a tough nut to crack for the striker currently nursing another ankle knock with eight consecutive blanks from previous encounters and this contrasts greatly with Son who positively revels against them. On six occasions in this fixture the player who nobody calls ‘Sonaldo’ but probably should, has found the net.
The 28-year-old is 33/10 to score anytime
If Son does indeed continue his impressive streak at the expense of Guardiola’s men it will be a welcomed full stop to a concerning lean spell. In his opening 16 Premier League games this season the forward notched 12. In his last 15 that has plummeted to just two.
Elsewhere, Tottenham also need to remedy a longstanding inability to recover from early concessions. Twice they successfully did this at the start of the campaign – most memorably at Old Trafford – but ever since they have conceded first eight times and ultimately salvaged just a singular draw.
This is especially worrying considering that Manchester City have all-but-trademarked their propensity to grab the three points on breaking the deadlock. Since a rogue draw at home to West Brom back in December the Blues have won all 18 games in which they’ve gone ahead.
Which is not to suggest that all is picture-perfect within the blue camp, despite their magnificent season to date that got them tantalizingly close to a quadruple. Their meek capitulation to Chelsea last week in a FA Cup semi-final hinted that an exhausting schedule is beginning to see them fray a little at the edges and with Kevin De Bruyne missing that makes the 23/5 available for a Spurs win markedly more tempting than the slim 13/25 backing a sixth League Cup success in eight years for City.
Or perhaps it is more sensible to opt for the 11/4 given out if the North London giants lift the trophy because widening our lens to the occasion itself reveals that four of the last 12 League Cup finals have gone to spot-kicks. By comparison, the last time a FA Cup final went the same way was as far back as 2006.
Furthermore, should it go the distance then definitely fancy the outsiders. City have been granted 10 pens all season and scored seven of them. -Spurs have won ten and converted every one – with that man Son netting the last.
