IF there is one thing we can be guaranteed of in life, it is that times change. Back in 2009, for example, the notion of transforming the DP World Tour’s end-of-season finale from Valderrama in Andalucia to the Earth Course at Jumeirah seemed rather radical. It was a move from a tight and technical course to a wide and long one. From old school European tradition to seven star Dubai bling. From a cosy farewell to the year to one dripping in money.

The move was of its time and perhaps a little ahead of it. It was also necessary in order to guarantee the participation of the leading players who, for the most part, found reasons to swerve the Spanish event.

Gazing back at the finishing positions in that first edition of the Tour Championship is another reminder of how things change. The winner, Lee Westwood, was in his career sweet spot. Between June 2008 and April 2012 he would finish top three in seven of 15 starts in the major championships. It was an outstanding period of sustained quality and yet, of course, history shakes its head sadly at the lack of a win.

The man who finished second behind Westwood, Ross McGowan, has never reached such heights again. A winner earlier that season, and again in 2020, the Englishman earned over half a million Euro that week in Dubai which is significantly more than his two wins combined and close to one-fifth of his entire career earnings.

Rory McIlroy was alone in third, a result that was his tenth career top-three finish. Earlier this year he took that mark through the century mark, and this week he not only defends the trophy but also seeks to win it for a fourth time.

Only three men play this week having also played 16 years ago: McIlroy, Alex Noren (who was sixth) and Justin Rose (who was T50th). Anthony Wall and Peter Hedblom were also in the field and still walk the fairways, only now with microphones in hand. Jamie Donaldson and Soren Kjeldsen finished in the top 30 and are now playing at senior level – Donaldson won last week on the Legends Tour, Kjeldsen is a two-time runner-up this season on the Champions Tour. Oliver Wilson, Gregory Bourdy and Chris Wood started this week at Q School, while Johan Edfors has now turned his attention to managing golf clubs rather than using them to hit drives a long, long way, and Robert Rock tweaks other golfers’ swings instead of his own.

And then there is the man who ended that first week at Jumeirah propping up the leaderboard – Danny Willett. He’d win this tournament nine years later, but that boom-and-bust nature of his course record would be reflected across his entire career. He had turned pro after being the World No. 1 amateur in 2008, he’d become a regular winner in the mid 2010s, would slip his arms inside a green jacket at Augusta National in 2016, represent Europe in the same year’s Ryder Cup, and win the 2019 BMW PGA Championship. Yet he’d also endured injury, controversy (courtesy of his brother ahead of the Ryder Cup), and long-term poor form. He’s in Bermuda this week and has recorded one top 10 in the last three years.

It’s also fascinating, of course, to wonder about the lives of this week’s field back in November 2009. John Parry had just won his first DP World Tour card, and within a year he would be a winner. He’d then plummet to the third tier before rising again. Next year he’ll be playing on the PGA Tour, completing a remarkable transformation. Shane Lowry had turned pro earlier that year but only after winning the Irish Open. He didn’t bank that winning cheque (Rock did) so he didn’t qualify for Dubai and was instead finishing third in Japan (his first top 10 finish since that dramatic, life-changing moment at County Louth).

The Hojgaard twins, meanwhile, were eight. Elvis Smylie was seven. Martin Couvra and Tom McKibbin were six. Angel Ayora was just five. Last week’s winner in Abu Dhabi, Aaron Rai, was a little older, at 14, and inside a year he would set a world record of 207 holed 10-foot putts on a Putt Master gadget endorsed by – a nice rounding of the narrative circle – Lee Westwood.

But enough of the nostalgia; what of this week? We know that the Earth Course is long (at over 7,700 yards), a Greg Norman design, and that it favours in-form golfers who like playing in the Middle East. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton are likely to contend, but we’ll look elsewhere to make a profit.

Keita Nakajima

The young Japanese star finished seventh on his tournament debut last year when he spent all week in the top 10. A winner in his 2024 rookie campaign, he’s come mighty close to adding a second with three runner-up finishes this season, the most recent in last month’s visit to India. He was also a decent T12th last week in Abu Dhabi.

 

Laurie Canter

The Englishman was the 54-hole leader on his tournament debut in 2020 when finishing fifth, and he was also T14th last year. He added to his Middle East record with third place in this year’s Dubai Desert Classic, followed by a victory in the Bahrain Championship. And he was second in the Genesis Championship just two starts ago.

 

Rasmus Hojgaard

The Dane has really warmed to the task of taking on the Earth Course in his last three visits, finishing seventh, T11th and second, and last year’s performance was notable for good putting. Moreover, in six of his last 12 laps of the course, he carded one of the top five scores of the day. He closed with a 65 last week in Abu Dhabi, helped by a red-hot putter, and can burst from the blocks on Thursday.

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