MANCHESTER City know they will be cast as the pantomime villains going into their third consecutive FA Cup final.
Opposing them is a club that has never before won a major trophy, and furthermore – though Millwall and Brighton fans will bitterly disagree with this – they are a club that many hold a soft spot for.
Crystal Palace, therefore, will be the ‘people’s champions’ this Saturday, their every attack rooted for. A victory for City meanwhile, will have half the television audience turn over to Flog It! before the cup is even lifted.
Having won an astonishing 18 trophies in the Guardiola era alone, the Blues are well versed in being the big bad wolf and indeed have graciously accepted the role twice before in this fixture. In 2013, they were felled by underdogs Wigan in the last minute. Six years later, they ruthlessly exerted their superiority over Watford, thrashing them 6-0.
Will we see either extreme play out this weekend on Wembley’s lush green turf? It feels doubtful, but then again the very nature of extremes is that they’re not obvious outcomes.
What dissuades us of either notion, however, is not simply how rare they are, but how rare they are in this marquee event, the jewel in English football’s crown. When revisiting the last 20 FA Cup finals, we find that an early strike is more likely than a 90th minute stunner, with goals scored inside the opening five minutes occurring on five occasions since 2005.
This is pertinent given that Palace converted in the fourth minute when hosting City at Selhurst Park back in December and in the eighth minute at the Etihad just over a month ago.
As for comprehensive beatings, remarkably only two of the last 20 finals have been won by more than a single-goal margin of victory. Moreover, just 20% have produced over 3.5 goals.
What most commonly transpires, therefore, are closely contested affairs, ones that require teams to hold their nerve and maintain their lead rather than seek to extend it. If we’re being really honest about it, the last thriller was Liverpool’s 3-3 draw with West Ham, and that was nearly two decades ago.
Yet, what gives us hope that an overdue memorable match-up could be in the reckoning here is that both teams head to North London in fine fettle. That isn’t always the case. Indeed, that in itself is a rarity.
City are unbeaten in 10 across all comps and will be highly motivated to win out this weekend, knowing a cup triumph will put a gloss on what has otherwise been an underwhelming campaign.
As for Palace, they have lost just two of their last 14 in the league and cups. Granted, those defeats saw them ship in 10 in 115 minutes – away to City and Newcastle – but the big picture is definitely bright for Oliver Glasner’s team, a comfortable win at Spurs last Sunday being further proof of this.
It’s bright because at the back the Eagles are typically solid and sound while they possess a midfield that is as much graft as craft. It is vital to their cause, incidentally, that Adam Wharton is passed fit, the future England mainstay struggling with partially damaged ankle ligaments. Up front they possess a formidable front three that absolutely have the credentials to hurt City.
A little over a month ago, Eberechi Eze did precisely this, scoring an early opener at the Etihad before adding a third that was ruled out for offside. Catching City cold that day, Eze’s movement and finishing were exceptional, and he has continued that form into subsequent games.
The England winger has converted six times in his last six outings.
Alongside the brilliant 26-year-old, Jean-Philippe Mateta arguably occupies centre-backs better than any other forward in the top flight, and though the French star’s purple patch in front of goal seems to have ended – firing nine in 10 from the start of the year – there is so much more to his game regardless.
Then there’s Ismaila Sarr, the most inconsistent of the three but capable of terrorizing defences on his day. Just ask Aston Villa, who had no answer to his direct wing play in the semis, Sarr scoring twice.
A word too should go to Daniel Munoz at this point, a player who has further raised the bar of late on what was already an excellent campaign. In his last two appearances, the Colombian has taken on four shots and put in 13 successful crosses.
If he is pitted against the inexperienced Nico O’Reilly at Wembley, then Palace could be in business down that flank.
Eze’s disallowed goal last month sparked City into life, prompting a masterclass from Kevin De Bruyne and an eventual 5-2 thumping, a result that extends the Blues’ dominance over Palace in the head-to-head. Since Pep Guardiola arrived in Manchester, his team have lost just twice versus the Eagles in 19 meetings.
Naturally the Belgian is another serious contender to stand out in North London, though it should be noted that the departing midfield maestro seems to be alternating game-to-game right now between magnificent and decidedly ordinary.
At Southampton last weekend, the 33-year-old was off the pace, which means Palace should be worried.
In addition to De Bruyne’s heightened attributes there is also a sentimental angle to him featuring that cannot be ignored, this being his last big hurrah in blue. You don’t have to buy into the ‘magic’ or ‘romance’ of the cup to acknowledge that so often FA Cup finals facilitate such storylines.
Failing that, Omar Marmoush could have a field day on such a vast pitch, taking advantage of Erling Haaland dominating opposition thoughts. The Egyptian striker has taken on a shot every 21 minutes since mid-March and scored in the semis and quarters.
Speaking of shots, City have scored more goals from outside the box this season than any other Premier League club. Pertinently, four of the last six FA Cup goals have come from distance.
We could go on, highlighting individuals who might sway it for the favourites – from Kovacic’s recent upsurge in form to Doku’s ability to cause mayhem – but the most persuasive argument for a City win lies elsewhere, to a tweak in the system that has once again seen them smother midfields by numbers. This has not only brought them greater control of games but also lessens the threat from counterattacks.
It has also led to six clean sheets in their last eight fixtures.
Which leaves us just with the housekeeping, namely the cards and corners markets.
In the last 10 finals, four cautions per 90 have been brandished, though interestingly, in the last three years there have only been two bookings prior to the 75th minute.
If this intimates a low card count, the appointment of Stuart Atwell as referee adds to this, the official having one of the lowest card ratios of his peers this term. Atwell has also awarded the fewest number of pens per 90 in the top-flight.
As for corners, go high. Both teams have experienced a spike in corners won in recent weeks, with City’s being the most prominent. Pep Guardiola’s men have won 40 in their last five games, compared to 17 across their five matches prior.
City were awarded seven apiece in their last two finals.
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