WHEN assessing the last ten years of FA Cup semi-finals no remarkable data comes to light though a few misconceptions are put to bed.
It is believed in some quarters that these are typically tight and tense affairs, that translate to low-scoring contests. In reality, 54 goals in the most recent 20 semi-finals – equating to 2.7 per 90 – is a perfectly healthy return.
Similarly, instinct tells us that many go the distance, to pens or concluded in extra-time. Again, this is supposedly due to the heightened stakes; to teams wanting to avoid defeat more than they’re willing to throw men forward and take a risk.
But only five of the 20 ended all-square after regulation time and that is bang on the norm.
So, is there anything unusual at all about one of the most enthralling weekends of the footballing calendar? Only this, and it’s a detail we all know about anyway.
It’s that Manchester City have appeared in seven of the last eight.
The Blues’ empirical knowledge of this fixture is a huge plus as they prepare for Sunday’s showdown with Nottingham Forest, a club that last reached this stage of the competition way back in 1991.
Across Pep Guardiola’s trophy-laden era they have experienced the highs of progressing to the final on three occasions and the misery of defeat four times over with each semi offering up invaluable lessons to take forward.
This is true of Guardiola as much as his players, the Catalan coach guilty in 2020 and 2021 of making too many changes to his starting XI and subsequently undermining his team’s chances. That hasn’t happened in the last two seasons and won’t again at the weekend.
Which means the strongest possible line-up awaits and for Guardiola at present that means fully utilising a group of elder statesmen City fans have began to refer to as the ‘Uncs’.
It’s an endearing but also disparaging term, used to denote a handful of experienced players whose drop-off in intensity has been chiefly blamed for City’s drop-off in performances this term.
By far the most eminent member of this aging collective is Kevin De Bruyne, who scored against Forest at the Etihad back in December, putting in a Man of the Match display for good measure.
That masterclass was perceived at the time to be the Belgian’s comeback but regrettably further injury problems put paid to that. Indeed, it’s only since the 33-year-old announced his imminent departure that he has been able to play consistently, his imprint on games augmenting as a consequence.
Against Crystal Palace he was magnificent, orchestrating, scheming, scoring and assisting. In City’s dramatic win over Aston Villa midweek, he put together six key passes.
Reveling in a false nine role, and with a remarkable 28 FA Cup goal involvements to his name, it is not beyond the realms that De Bruyne rolls back the years and takes creative control this Sunday. If nothing else, you have to fancy him on that big, open pitch.
Looking beyond individuals, we should not rule out either the possibility of the pre-match favourites notching early.
Yet another of those semi-final preconceptions is that in such big games, with so much on the line, teams spend the opening passages feeling each other out. In fact, seven of the last 20 semi-finals have seen the deadlock broken within 20 minutes while a staggering 34.9% of City’s entire goal-haul in 2024/25 have been converted within their timeframe.
Back City over 0.5 first half goals and De Bruyne to score or assist at 9/4
So what of Forest? Does the above suggest they are being written off?
Anything but, given the incredible campaign they have constructed, and furthermore let’s not forget that the Tricky Trees beat City fair and square at the City Ground a mere six weeks ago.
Averaging just 39.3% possession all season, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men allow teams the ball but back themselves to pick the right moments to break at pace, elsewhere relying on the solidity of Sels, Murillo and Milenkovic in defence. It’s a rearguard responsible for 13 clean sheets in 2024/25, and additionally one that has made the most interceptions and made the most successful tackles.
They possess arguably the best centre-back and goalkeeping unit in the whole top-flight.
Up front, meanwhile, Chris Wood is back from injury and immediately among the goals, his return allowing Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga to revert to more familiar roles, that of terrorizing retreating full-backs. Though Elanga has been in superb form of late, it is Hudson-Odoi who stands out ahead of this fixture.
The former Chelsea ace took on three shots on target in his two meetings with City this term.
Behind this triumvirate, Morgan Gibbs-White’s contribution will be key. Linked with a possible summer move to City, he has broken the 40-barrier for accurate passes per 90 on six occasions this season.
Over 0.5 SOT for Hudson-Odoi offers up a tempting 7/4
Forest will greatly trouble the Blues throughout, but all the same, it is Guardiola’s men fancied to prevail. They’re on familiar ground and moreover are an improved proposition to the side that lost at the City Ground.
What’s more, they will be aware on the final whistle who they’re set to face in May’s showpiece event, what with Aston Villa and Crystal Palace competing in their semi-final 24 hours earlier.
And if City v. Forest is a tough one to call results-wise, this one is even tougher.
We do not know, for example, to what extent Villa’s last-minute concession at the Etihad has psychologically harmed them. Surely it has to, to some degree?
Going into the 93rd minute in East Manchester, all was hunky-dory for Unai Emery’s side, heading for a notable draw at the home of the reigning champions, after putting together five straight league wins. Their Champions League exit meanwhile, had been an honourable one, mounting a magnificent comeback against PSG, even if ultimately it was all in vain.
Only now, they are cast as outsiders in the top five chase, out of Europe, and a cup clash against a side who humbled them 4-1 a matter of months ago appears to be their last chance of salvation.
Desperation is never a positive at Wembley. This isn’t the X-Factor. Instead, it can so often be a team’s undoing.
Still, there remains infinitely more positives to negatives where the Midlanders are concerned.
The increased influence of Youri Tielemans has been pivotal to their recent upsurge in performances, while ahead of him, Watkins, Rashford, Asensio, and Rogers are full of goals. That scintillating PSG display aside, at least one of this quartet has been on the scoresheet for Villa across their last 17 outings.
Boasting 2 goals per 90 in 2025, Villa will fancy their chances against a Palace rearguard that recently hemorrhaged 10 goals in 115 minutes.
Downed 5-2 by City and 5-0 by Newcastle, it was all told a bizarre brace of defeats for the Eagles who have subsequently reminded everyone of who they truly are. A much-needed clean sheet at home to Bournemouth was followed midweek by an impressive draw at the Emirates, one that saw them match – if not better – the Gunners in the stats.
In North London, it was Jean-Philippe Mateta who grabbed the headlines, coming on with ten minutes to spare and dinking home a late equalizer. This followed Eberechi Eze’s wonder volley that leveled proceedings earlier.
Yet it is their third attacking threat who is predicted to do damage to Villa, largely because he always does. Not only has Ismaila Sarr scored or assisted every time he has faced the Villans but this season he has taken his vendetta up a notch, with four goal involvements from their two meetings.
Finally, there is Palace’s recent spike in bookings and red cards to consider. In their last eight fixtures, Oliver Glasner’s team have been cautioned 22 times. In their eight prior it was nine.
Back BTTS, Sarr to score or assist and Palace most cards at 15/2
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