GOLFERS always have favourite layouts and sometimes careers can be defined by those strong affinities. The Englishman Simon Khan recorded five top two finishes on the then-European Tour and three of them were in the tour’s flagship event, the very lucrative BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. The Scot Stephen Gallacher racked up a few more top twos (11) but three of them were on the Majlis Course at Emirates Golf Club in the Dubai Desert Classic. That he was second in 2012 before winning back-to-back in 2013 and 2014 makes for one of the more remarkable sweet spots for any golfer outside the highest calibre.
Ahead of this week’s edition of the DDC, Rory McIlroy is the favourite for good reason because he’s another course specialist, one who is chasing a fifth victory (and third in a row). As impressive as those bare numbers are, however, scratch and the record keeps on getting better.
That said, the funny thing is that his initial efforts were rough and ready. He missed the cut on debut in 2006 (albeit as a 16-year-old); a year later he closed with a 76 that left him outside the top 50, and a second round 77 in 2008 saw him miss another weekend in what were then the early months of his professional career. Twelve months later the worm turned, both on the course and in his career.
With regard to the former, he thrashed an opening round of 64, kept his foot down, completed a wire-to-wire win and his playing partner Mark O’Meara even insisted that he was better at 19 years of age than Tiger Woods had been. “Mind-blowing,” McIlroy said of the comparison as he earned the first of his 41 worldwide wins.
Since and including that triumph in 2009 McIlroy has played the DDC 11 times and never finished outside the top 10. In that period he’s ended 39 of 44 rounds inside the top 10, he’s held 15 solo leads (or wins), had three shared leads, and 30 times he was within two shots of the lead at worst. His first round record is also exceptional with three solo leads, one shared and another five times he was tied sixth or better. His ability to go low is further demonstrated by a round three 63 last year that was four blows better than anyone else managed. His Saturday 65 a year before was also the best of the day. His round two 66 in 2022 was joint best of the day.
“Dubai has meant a lot to me over my career,” he said two years ago. “One of my first starts was here. First win was here. First sponsor was from here. I lived here for four years, as well.” Beyond the good vibes he added: “It’s a great golf course, a fun golf course, it gives you plenty of opportunities to make birdies. You have the three par-5s on the back nine and a couple of reachable fours.”
It is also, perhaps crucially, a test that allows his greatest weapon to shine – his driving. In a recent event the television commentators noted the fine quality of his drives and how they kept leaving him with wedges rather than mid-irons into the greens. Ironically, then, his strength was merely highlighting his most obvious weakness. At Emirates his elite driving is less compromised because it gifts him maximum opportunity of hitting those par-5s in two and of hitting the greens, or having a chip on to them, at the two short par-4s. Last year he won on 14-under and played those six score-able holes in 13-under. Can he complete hat trick? Of course he can but 4/1 is a skinny price so we’ll repeat a column favourite ploy and then look elsewhere in the outright markets.
First round leader – Rory McIlroy each way
You may recall that we were keen on the Northern Irishman to make a fast start in the DP World Tour Championship, noting that he has a real fondness for a Thursday in Dubai. He then rewarded the faith with a 67 for a share of the lead and, throughout his career, he’s played in 29 first rounds in Dubai recording 17 top six positions of which three were shared leads and five outright advantages. Throw in all the quality at Emirates mentioned above and it’s worth repeating this play.
Outright – Nicolai Hojgaard each way
The American Patrick Reed – who carded a 59 on the way to winning the Hong Kong Open at the end of last year and finished second in his only previous start in this event two years ago – has a great chance but the compiler is in full agreement so we’ll look elsewhere. The Dane Nicolai Hojgaard is another very fine driver of the ball – one good enough to have won the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah – but like many (McIlroy included) the challenge of those six key holes took some getting used to. When he missed the cut on debut he was 2-over on them. He was only 3-under when T38 in 2023, racking up big numbers as he chased low ones. But last year he was 10-under and finished in a share of seventh. His game was shaping up nicely before Christmas after a poor summer and he can continue the upward curve in his event record.
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