IT is hard to recall when a Manchester derby last had both teams go into it in such poor form.
There is usually one side who dreads the prospect of an imminent encounter with their neighbour, and in recent years that has unfailingly been Manchester United. The last three meetings at the Etihad were all won by Pep Guardiola’s men, each by comprehensive scorelines.
Prior to those one-sided affairs it’s duly noted that United accrued three wins in four away to their bitter rival but context is needed for each victory, the Reds triumphing every time against the odds and despite themselves and their circumstance.
Before that of course, long before that, but for a generation and more, it was Manchester City who were the perennial underdogs, going into battle armed with only a slingshot to take down a giant.
Occasionally their blind aim would connect with a temple and celebrations across the blue half of the city would be wild. The majority of the time though United’s vastly superior class told.
That’s how it’s been in Manchester derbies, in our lifetime at least. One team swaggers up to kick-off, complete, imperious and brilliant. The other by varying degrees is something of a mess.
By rights that latter role should be inhabited by the visitors again this Sunday, United struggling to transition to Ruben Amorim’s ways and this after two-and-a-half years of failing to synch up to Erik Ten Hag.
Only then, at the tail-end of October, Manchester City said, ‘hold my beer’ and proceeded to unravel in the most dramatic and surprising manner possible. It was as if they had grown bored of being perfectly perfect and wanted to see how the other half lived.
With Rodri no longer offering Ballon d’Or-winning insurance, an injury-ravaged defence became fallible and prone to individual error. Their midfield meanwhile lacked physicality and dynamism. Up front, chances were still being created but were now being consistently spurned, with Erling Haaland the main offender.
All of this, along with a malfunctioning press that derived from players looking spent, led to six headline-grabbing losses and a draw, the latter coming in the Champions League when the Blues were three-up with just 15 minutes to play.
Their implosion was seismic, comical, ridiculous and all-encompassing, but let’s not kid ourselves that it came out of the blue.
All season long – even across an opening nine-game unbeaten spell – problems have been evident, not least a propensity to concede first and early.
Only four teams in the top-flight have gone behind more often in 2024/25.
Moreover, from August to the present, City have made 11 errors leading to opposition shots while it was clear from the get-go that this current incarnation of Pep Guardiola’s creation could easily be ‘got at’, particularly in wide areas and particularly from decent deliveries to the far post.
What we witnessed throughout November to the here and now was not a sudden death but rather an ailing beast rapidly deteriorating. It was only the speed of its escalation that shocked.
Since losing to Spurs in the League Cup in late October no team have given up a higher quality of goalscoring opportunities than City. Not Southampton. Not Wolves. No, a team that has won four league titles back-to-back, in doing so utterly dominating the English footballing landscape.
The truth of the matter is that this is a season too far for many senior, key players. Ilkay Gundogan is shot, his return from Barcelona a mistake for all concerned. Kyle Walker is a liability, responsible for so many concessions, as social media delights in highlighting.
As well as Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne has been a substantial loss and what this all amounts to – on top of missing their other obvious attributes – is an abject lack of leadership.
It’s no coincidence that City have been breached twice in quick succession on five occasions of late. There is no-one to ensure heads don’t go down.
The other truth of the matter is that City are there for the taking this weekend, and subsequently United can curse their luck at the timing of this fixture.
Under Ruben Amorim the future looks bright with the distinct possibility that a decade and more of woeful under-achievement might finally be coming to an end.
Right now though? Right now, this is a team half-constructed, with a new system in place that some are struggling to adapt to.
It’s left them wishy-washy, a team of moments and halves but elsewhere susceptible to collective disarray. We saw this for the bulk of the second half in their home defeat to Nottingham Forest last week. Prior to that, only Andre Onana reached an acceptable standard against Arsenal, the keeper going on to endure a nightmare 90 minutes a week later.
This is a team that hints but as yet can’t deliver, but at least positives can be found in midfield where Manuel Ugarte is beginning to show the qualities for which he was signed. Bruno Fernandes too has largely shone, boasting six goal involvements in six.
The Portuguese schemer also happens to have a decent, recent record in this contest, with two goals and three assists.
Amad Diallo is another plus, embracing and thriving in an unfamiliar wing-back role.
Yet the negatives far outweigh any causes for optimism, for now at least.
United’s defence is porous. Their press off. Each player currently needs half a second of thought for every movement and in a high-intensity derby that can matter. Remarkably, 50% of their goals conceded this term have come from set-pieces and that brings Haaland into play, a striker who has demolished them single-handedly in the past.
In summary then, it is hard to recall when a Manchester derby last had two teams in such poor form and because of that it’s hard to recall a derby trickier to predict.
City though just edge it courtesy of a greater goal-threat and from being at home.
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