THE classic Sky Sports programme Premier League Years, which documents each Premier League season month-by-month, has a section linking the news in the current events of the time to what is happening in the footballing world. For instance, November’s segment for 1992/93 shows Bill Clinton winning the US presidential election, before a cut to a shot of Eric Cantona with Georgie Thompson declaring “…and there was a new era beginning at Manchester United, as Eric Cantona crossed the Pennines from Leeds”.

It is easy to imagine the November 2024 segment declaring “and while there was a big political comeback in the US, comebacks were the in-thing in the Premier League…” as last weekend saw Liverpool, Spurs and Brentford all come from behind to win, while the percentage of teams winning when conceding first is at its all-time highest in the 2024/25 season.

Is this the age of the comeback?

Score first and…win?

Scoring first in a football match is usually a good idea. The Premier League average for winning when scoring the first goal is 69%, so essentially seven times out of ten you will win the game when scoring first. Of course, some teams are above those averages – both Alex Ferguson’s Man Utd and Pep Guardiola’s Man City have won 87% of their games when scoring first – and others fall below it, such as Ralph Hasenhüttl’s Southampton, who won just 51% of their 73 games when scoring first under him, and spare a thought for Kieran McKenna at Ipswich, whose five games when they’ve opened the scoring so far have yielded zero victories.

However, from an average of 69%, this season has seen the win percentage drop to just 53% for teams scoring first, while teams have won 22% of games when conceding first, the latter up 10% on the average. Although this may level out as the season wears on, 100 games is a decent sample size and has seen the points-per-game for scoring first teams drop to just 1.84, comfortably the lowest in Premier League history.

2-0: A Dangerous Scoreline

It is a classic footballing phrase – 2-0 is a dangerous scoreline. Is it, though? Historically, not really. The win ratio for teams going 2-0 ahead in a Premier League game is 93%. A team to lose is a mere 2% – it has only happened 99 times in Premier League history, and while it only happened four times in 1992/93 one of those was on the first ever day on August 15, when Arsenal surrendered a 2-0 lead to lose 4-2 to Norwich. The Gunners have only lost three more times when 2-0 up since and the most recent of those was in 2010. Norwich, meanwhile, won another game in 1992/93 from 2-0 down, beating Chelsea 3-2, but since then they’ve gone 2-0 behind in 106 Premier League matches and won none, losing each of their last 84 games from that scoreline.

However, 2024/25 appears to be the season of danger for teams going 2-0 ahead. There have already been five wins by teams going 2-0 down, a joint record in a season along with 2022/23. Teams going 2-0 up have gone on to win 76% of games this season (22 out of 29), 12% lower than in any other Premier League season, while the win ratio of 17% for teams at 2-0 down means that you are statistically as likely to see a win when your team is 2-0 down as Reading fans were to seeing a Premier League win under Brian McDermott, who won five of his 29 top-flight games in charge of the Royals.

Everton’s early season form definitely helped that – they contrived to lose consecutive games when 2-0 ahead, against Bournemouth (having led as late as the 87th minute) and Aston Villa. On both occasions, it was Dominic Calvert-Lewin putting them 2-0 ahead, making the England striker one of just five players to lose more than one game when giving their team a 2-0 advantage (the others, since you didn’t ask, are Niall Quinn, Les Ferdinand, Matthew Taylor and Luka Modric). Completing the five losing teams this season are Spurs at Brighton, Southampton at home to Leicester and Ipswich at Brentford.

This season is a long way away from 2005/06 (both statistically and historically, as someone born during that season can now legally buy alcohol), when teams going 2-0 up won 99% of their games (147 out of 149) – the two let downs being Charlton at home to Spurs (lost 3-2) and West Brom away at Everton (drew 2-2). 1996/97 was an odd season all round – Man Utd winning the title on 75 points, Leeds finishing 11th with 28 goals, Middlesbrough finishing runners-up in both domestic cups and getting relegated due to a points deduction – and it also saw the lowest percentage of comeback wins from 2-0 down, just 0.65% and one win: Sheffield Wednesday winning 3-2 at Southampton in February.

Not surprisingly given their longevity in the division, Manchester United have the most wins from 2-0 down in Premier League history (14) but they are also the least likely side to surrender their lead too – in 416 games when 2-0 ahead, they’ve lost just one, which came away at Leicester in a 5-3 defeat in September 2014. Three teams have a 100% ratio when going 2-0 up, with Oldham (now in the National League), Huddersfield (League One) and Swindon (League Two) having 14 such games between them in their brief top-flight forays without slipping up. For a minimum of 50 games, there’s something about England’s north-west which is a stronghold, as four of the top-five teams for win ratios when 2-0 up are Man Utd, Blackburn, Man City and Liverpool; Arsenal make up the top-five. West Brom are the only side below an 86%-win ratio, winning just 74% of games when 2-0 ahead.

So, beware when your team goes 2-0 ahead. It didn’t used to be dangerous, but it is now.

Please remember to gamble responsibly. Visit our Safer Gambling section for more information, help and advice.