THERE is a riddle within the game of golf. We could, perhaps, call it the Paradox of Multiple Winners and it runs a little like this.
Typically, a golf tournament only ever has one champion and yet, in the few events that do have multiple winners, the thrills are often greater than normal. The contradictions don’t end there because television, which ought to crave this boost to excitement, largely ignores the multiple winner events. And those it does cover – the FedEx Cup Play Offs – somehow contrive to add to the mystery because the excitement rarely rises above simmering (and it doesn’t help that the broadcast never quite knows how to cope with the concept of more than one winner).
Of the multiple winner events that do work, think of Qualifying Schools, second tier finals and major championship final qualifying.
Q Schools are never less than remarkable occasions and the practice putting greens reveal as much. In any normal week it is a place for banter and relaxed chitter chatter; in Q School week it is tense, serious and more or less silent. Typically there are 20 cards up for grabs and, by the final round of six, it rather resembles a golfing version of Scott’s disastrous expedition to the Antarctic. It would make fantastic television (albeit most viewers would be hiding behind the sofa).
There is a similar sense of drama at Challenge Tour Grand Final, when the top 45 players on the second tier are aiming to win the tournament but, more importantly, are desperate to end the week in the top 20 of the season’s rankings. By the back nine of the final day every shot played is like a roll of the dice in a giant game of snakes and ladders. Fortunes change in an instant and, once again, it would make for magnificent TV.
Then there is Final Qualifying for the Open and US Open when late birdies and bogeys can transform a season, a career and even a life. It’s compulsive, wonderful and, like these other events, slightly voyeuristic.
And then there is the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup. It’s not entirely without jeopardy and drama, but it’s never quite worked. Last week 70 players teed it up in Memphis and only the top 50 in the rankings progressed to this week’s BMW Championship. On Sunday, only the top 30 will make it to the Tour Championship at East Lake.
Perhaps what is missing is a sense of desperation. In those other events to miss out on a card or a rare major championship start is always going to hurt. The sting of it will last a long, long time and the players know it all too well. In contrast, Tom Kim, who was 51st in the PGA Tour rankings, and therefore misses out this week, won over $4 million this season. Victor Perez, in 70th, won over $ 2million.
In normal events there is one winner; in these special tournaments there are multiple winners; in the FedEx Cup everyone’s a winner. The magic is in the middle.
On, however, to this week’s action. The BMW Championship jumps across the country and it doesn’t just jump across, it also leaps high because the new venue is Castle Pines GC in Castle Rock near Denver. That means high up in the thin air of Colorado and, when the ball flies further and mathematics are required to convert the yardages, it is always a factor.
Matt Fitzpatrick
The Englishman likes playing at altitude. At Crans-sur-Sierre in Switzerland he was second in 2015, seventh in 2016, the back-to-back winner in 2017 and 2018 and third last year. He was also, in his one visit to Las Vegas, T12th. The fact that Castle Pines is a Jack Nicklaus layout will appeal, too. He was third at Muirfield Village in 2020, ninth there last year and fifth this year. He was also a winner at the Nicklaus c-designed Harbour Town last April. His recent golf has been very mixed. Like the little girl he’s either been very, very good (second round 64 in the Olympics, second round 65 last week at TPC Southwind) or very, very bad (third round 81 at the Olympics). It means we get a big price though.
Nick Dunlap
It’s been some year for the 20-year-old from Alabama. He started it as an amateur, won The American Express on an invitation, turned pro, was dragged into a law suit with his ex-manager, and then won again. The details of that second win are the key to this pick. It was not only at Tahoe Mountain (a Nicklaus layout), it was also high up in the Californian mountains at a similar altitude to this week. He was also very impressive when T12th at Muirfield Village in June and was fifth last week at TPC Southwind.
First Round Leader – Collin Morikawa
Morikawa would be tempting in the outright market if he were this price or showing a greater ability to convert the wins because he has a fine record on Nicklaus layouts. He’s a winner on three different Nicklaus designs (Montreux, Muirfield Village, The Concession), was fourth at Valhalla in this year’s PGA Championship, and has also finished seventh and ninth at Harbour Town. At Valhalla he was fifth after 18 holes and top five all week. In six visits to Muirfield Village he’s had two solo first round leads and was third this year. At Montreux (also at altitude) he was second after 18 holes. At The Concession he was T19th on Thursday evening but added a 64 in round two. At Harbour Town he’s made five starts and been second and third after one round.
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