THE opening weekend of any Premier League season is all about the promise of what’s to come.

Hope, at this precise juncture, is still pristine, untarnished by late own-goals and new signings not putting the yards in. Anything is possible and there is an awful lot to look forward to.

Yet it would also be remiss not to look back, to the start-line of seasons past because it is there where trends emerge, clues that help us understand what likely awaits us in the days ahead.

This is especially true when it comes to promoted sides, taking on the big boys for the first time after escaping the frenetic environs of the Championship.

Opening weekends have not traditionally been kind to promoted teams and perhaps this shouldn’t surprise. It’s a significant hike in class after all, and it requires some time to adapt.

This has certainly been the case over the last decade, with top-flight newbies coming unstuck 19 times on day one, drawing six and only winning five of their Premier League debuts. Across these 30 fixtures, we have typically seen dreams quickly unravel with an average concession of two goals per 90.

Backing all three promoted sides to lose their opening fixture as a bet builder offers up 15/8

When we dig a little further we find that all but two of the 11 wins and draws occurred at home and this makes sense. A passionate bumper crowd celebrating a return to the promised land can help a team get over the line.

Indeed, the last promoted side to secure three points on their travels on day one was Huddersfield seven years ago. Pertinently, this was against a Crystal Palace side hopelessly failing to adjust to Frank De Boer’s attempt to remodel them.

All of which brings us to Southampton, the only promoted team to begin their Premier League adventure on the road this weekend. Worse still it’s at Newcastle, a club eying up a top four spot with no European distractions this year.

The Magpies have enjoyed a decent pre-season, thrashing Girona last Friday where they found themselves three up after 15 minutes and another early goal could feature here, just like it did so many times for Eddie Howe’s men last term. In 2023/24 only two clubs scored more league goals prior to the break.

With the Saints dead-set on keeping to their principles in playing out from the back don’t discount a quick, harsh lesson being dispensed on the need to compromise.

Southampton incidentally have an awful record on the opening day of Premier League seasons, winning just two of their last 10.

Back Newcastle/Newcastle at 17/20

Staying with the track record of individual clubs on this special weekend Everton’s is of interest, the Toffees drawing half of their opening bows in the last decade.

This is particularly noteworthy given that their first opponents are Brighton, the draw specialists of the Premier League last season.

The Seagulls shared the points in just under a third of their games in 2023/24, doing so on six occasions away from the South Coast. And of course it matters that both of their meetings with Everton ended all-square.

That being said, the manner in which Brighton have immediately embraced Fabian Hurzeler’s new ways in pre-season suggests a bright start awaits them and they should duly be fancied, for the most part, to prevail in the weeks to come.

Here though, recent history and the story it tells is just too convincing to ignore.

Back Everton and Brighton to draw at 5/2

The last example of the past informing the present leads us to two obvious shouts that when combined offer up great value.

It will come as no surprise to learn that Manchester City boast the most imperious opening day record in recent years, losing only one of their last 15. Across those fixtures they have been breached every 337.5 minutes.

At the other end meanwhile they have averaged 2.4 goals per game.

Then there’s Manchester United who have seemingly spent the last ten years or so stuck in perpetual crisis. Moreover, opening day losses to Crystal Palace and Brighton in recent seasons come readily to mind.

Yet the Reds also have a more-than-healthy track record at kicking their campaigns off with a bang, winning 12 of their last 15 opening days. They have almost been as prolific as City too, averaging 2.2 goals per 90.

Going into this weekend the narrative appears to be that all is not right at Old Trafford still, and another period of struggle beckons. As for City, a slow start is anticipated, what with their English contingent just returning and so many of their key personnel still to get up to full speed.

Besides, Chelsea away is hardly a gimme for an opening gambit.

On that latter note, Pep Guardiola’s champions haven’t lost at Stamford Bridge in the league since 2018 while a broader point is that these two club’s are proven strong starters.

Back United over 2.5 goals v Fulham and City over 1.5 goals v Chelsea at 11/4

Of course, it’s not all about history. Pre-season too is a huge determining factor to what may play out as ‘proper’ football finally returns this Friday evening and beyond.

Of the several top-flight clubs who have impressed in recent weeks Crystal Palace have especially stood out, unbeaten in their four warm-up fixtures and showing convincing signs that Oliver Glasner’s transformative work at Selhurst Park is continuing to evolve.

The Eagles have looked sharp, fluid, and dangerous going forward and still have Jean-Philippe Mateta to drop back in, the French striker scoring for fun at the Olympics.

By the end of the transfer window, there is every chance that they’ll be deprived of Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi. For now though, they’re in good shape even if a clean sheet is still to be found going into Sunday’s clash at Brentford.

Back Full Time Palace, BTTS, and over 2.5 goals at 4/1

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